Crushed Optimists

Crushed Optimists: Crushed.....

2006-12-20T16:30:00.000-08:00

Wow. It's been a ridiculous amount of time since anyone but Nate posted on this blog, which basically means that no one of importance has posted on this blog for awhile.

You might be wondering why that is (was), and you deserve an explanation. However, to get to that explanation, I have to go back to the beginning of this blog.

Two years ago, a few weeks before the Seahawks lost yet another close playoff game to the Rams on account of yet another dropped ball in the end zone, we had a tragedy in our family, when a family member was hit by a car and killed.

Obviously that event was a tremendous blow for our family, one that was at the same time surreal and crushingly realistic. We all walked about in a daze for several months. Some might say that I still walk around in a daze, but those people are jerks, like Nate.

Suffice it to say, we needed a distraction from the grief and pain. Enter this blog, started in that February (or March?). Both Gavin and I poured ourselves into a positive outlet that had nothing whatsoever to do with anything life-threatening or incredibly serious. We could laugh at what each other had written. We could return to a happier style of writing, making fun of each other, various Petey's, and the Seattle sports scene. It was a welcome break from the difficult circumstances, and we relished the opportunity to write down our generally lame thoughts on the Seahawks, Mariners, and Sonics.

Now, two years later, much has changed. The pain has lessened with time, both Gavin and I are moving forward with our respective careers, and the pressing need to blog has faded. We are able to find laughter in all aspects of life now, and no longer need to flee to sports, though we still remain (and will for the rest of our lives) diehard Seattle sports fans.

That is probably what you have noticed over the past several months. Where once there were several posts a day, now there are only about five or six a week. Where once there were numerous posts on the Mariners, Sonics, and Huskies, now this blog basically examines the pitiful remains of the Seattle Seahawks. Where once we demanded more out of this blog and of ourselves, now we are comfortable with using this blog more as a mechanism for links than as an actual writing enterprise.

"Crushed Optimists" has served its purpose, and we thank all of you for taking the time to read us at some point during the last few years. This is the end of us being the type of blog that posts several times a week. Now, we still might post every now and then, when something strikes our fancy or Steve Kelley writes something particularly inane. This holds especially true if the Hawks make it to the Super Bowl (extremely unlikely).

We look forward to the new and fresh blogs that pop up every year, like "Field Gulls" this year for the Hawks, as they continue to write excellent material on the teams that we unfortunately love, even when they stupidly trade Chris Snelling for a Tootsie Roll and three copies of "She's All That" (Bill Bavasi REALLY like Freddie Prinze Jr.). To our best friend, Jimmy McWhiskers, shine on, you crazy diamond.

This is the staff of Crushed Optimists, signing off (for now)........

The Dangers of Attaching Your Ego to a Professional Sports Team From Seattle

2006-12-15T21:06:00.000-08:00

Delta Marine Industries' consensus:

Shawn Alexander is playing football like a little girl.
Jose Vidro is old.
The Sonics still can't play D.
Husky basketball = eh.
Taco trucks sustain life.

Also, there used to be a blog here.

Suck-hawks Football

2006-12-10T18:55:00.000-08:00

I've been thinking the Seahawks are just about to shift from 3rd into 4th and finally accelerate and hit 5th in the post season. We've got Matt and Shawn back, Stevens is healthy and allegedly an asset, Jackson and the rest of the recievers are having a great season and Spencer was back at center today... all signs pointing to today being a great day on the football field.

Instead, the 'Hawks shifted from third to reverse as the were merging into the passing lane causing the engine to leap out of the hood in an ugly mess. HGTTG readers know what I'm getting at.

Who lets the Cardinals force FOUR fumbles?

Who gets shown up by the Cardinals offensive line?

Who lets them convert a bazillion (roughly) third downs?

Who goes three and out in the clutch?

Who came up a yard short... TWICE?!

Well, maybe the Seahawks will finally wake up and play like they can. Maybe. I've got a ton of reasons to be optimistic, but I'm getting tired of waiting for them to freakin' win the games they're supposed to. Instead of clinching the division and building some momentum towards the end of the season, we lay the biggest turd I've every seen.
We don't deserve the 2nd seed.
We don't deserve any respect untill we play like the defending NFC champs.

Why I Hate Baseball (Right Now)

2006-12-08T17:07:00.000-08:00

I feel like I'm the last baseball fan on Earth sometimes. Over the years, you hear it all. "Basketball has cooler stars, football is more exciting and competitive, hockey has fights, soccer is the beautiful world-unifying game, curling is cool... " I'd always dismiss it and go back to my Mariners. I'd argue with the guys that said baseball is boring and outdated because I really believed baseball was a great sport. A great sport with more history, class, drama, excitement and skill than any other sport I'd experienced. (I've yet to see goat pulling first hand in Uzbekistan, however.)

Now?

What can I do with Gil Meche, Ted Lilly and JD Drew all nabbing RIDICULOUS contracts (assuming one doesn't already generally think paying an entertainer millions of dollars is ridiculous) but get a little cynical? 5 years, $55 million for Meche? 4 years, $40 million for Lilly? 5 years, $70 million for Drew? Are you unprintable swear-ing kidding me? This is killing my love for baseball. A part of my baseball love died in '94 with the strike. Another bit died knowing Bonds, Big Mac and obvious others were juiced during the climax of their careers.

The Mariners have done their darnedest to kill my love for baseball as well--most recently trading a good reliever for a bad starter. How does that make sense? I could go out there and suck throwing left-handed too. I just wouldn't get paid 10 million a year to do it. Should've stuck with it. I guess that's what really makes me mad.

At least I have a few memories to tide me over 'till the insanity ends. Or maybe I'll remember the Seahawks are 8 and 4 and football the superior sport. Or maybe sports aren't everything, especially on a day like today...

The (Once Again Lame) Scientific Method: Week 14

2006-12-08T14:49:00.000-08:00

Finals are over on Wednesday. You know what that means.

Sunday:
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay, seriously, might be one of the worst teams I have ever seen. Honestly, the Raiders are better than they are, because they, at least, have a great defense.
Scientific Pick: Atlanta

Baltimore at Kansas City
What, you mean the Ravens offense might suck?
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
Amazing how mortal Indy looks right now, but, c'mon....
Scientific Pick: Indy

Minnesota at Detroit
Again, the only unit on the field I trust is the Minny defense.
Scientific Pick: Minnesota

New England at Miami
This is Tom Brady's personal house of horrors.
Scientific Pick: New England

NY Giants at Carolina
The Giants have to win a game at some point, while I'm done with Carolina
Scientific Pick: NY Giants

Oakland at Cincinnati
Another win here, and Cincy is solidly in the playoff race, especially with Cutler in Denver
Scientific Pick: Cincy

Philadelphia at Washington
Washington is another of those teams that I flee
Scientific Pick: Philly

Tennessee at Houston
What about those Titans? I pick them to win, finally.
Scientific Pick: Tennessee

Green Bay at San Francisco
Crap versus Crapola.
Scientific Pick: San Francisco

Seattle at Arizona
Gavin and I will be loud and proud in the stands for this one.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Buffalo at NY Jets
Man, can the Jets actually do this?
Scientific Pick: NY Jets

Denver at San Diego
So...... can Jake Plummer still play quarterback? Mulligan?
Scientific Pick: San Diego

New Orleans at Dallas
A nice story coming out of New Orleans. But, no.
Scientific Pick: Dallas

Monday:
Chicago at St. Louis
I love it when the Rams suck. And they do. They suck.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Jeremy Green is a qualified moron

2006-12-08T14:07:00.000-08:00

Anyone remember our good buddy Jeremy Green? As part of ESPN's Scouts Inc, Green wrote a rambling bit of insanity last week about how Jay Cutler was the greatest move for the Broncos in, well, ever.

Flabbergasted by this ignorance, I took some time to point out some mistakes in this post.

Then Sunday came, Cutler threw up all over the field, and I felt justified. However, all the talking heads are refusing to acknowledge their own foolishness and are starting to criticize Shanahan's decision to go with Cutler over Jake Plummer OR are resorting to the "he'll be better later" excuse. Both of these are ridiculous. Has no one ever heard of saying that they were wrong?

Take me, for example. I thought Bill Bavasi deserved another offseason. Then this past week happened. I was wrong. He deserves our scorn.

This goes full circle back to Jeremy Green, who revisits Denver's quarterback situation in this blog post.

We are all going to have to be patient with Jay Cutler.

After one start? This sounds a little bit like a lot of people were expecting him to be amazing and then he wasn't... kind of like Jeremy Green. Perhaps this sentence could have been written... "Don't think I'm not an expert. Just be patient with Jay Cutler."

He made some rookie mistakes in his first start, but was that not to be expected?

Yes. I expected it. You? Not so much. If I might quote your last article on this subject, Cutler was going to "spark the offense". That would seem to avoid "rookie mistakes".

He also made some nice throws and showed the arm that will eventually make Denver fans forget about the QB controversy they are experiencing right now.

This is just plain irresponsible. Cutler threw some passes that were complete. Great for him. He also played overall an awful game. Pointing out a couple of good throws is a cop-out, Jeremy Green. David Carr makes nice throws all the time... and then loses.

Cutler is going to be an excellent quarterback at some point, just not this season.

Ummm... then why would he have been able to "spark the offense"? Why was it a great decision for Denver to go to Cutler as of ONE WEEK AGO, Jeremy Green?

The Broncos put Cutler at a disadvantage because this is way too late to go to a rookie. When you go to a rookie in December, it should be because of injury or because you are out of the playoff race. To put the weight of the season on a rookie is asking way too much. Cutler should be trying to develop into a solid future starting QB, not worrying about the fact that the season is essentially riding on whether or not he plays well. That is asking to much of any rookie player at any position, but the fact that he is a QB only magnifies that statement even more.

You know what? Green is totally right here. If he had written that one week ago I wouldn't be upset. Also, I know this is anal, but there is "to" and "too", and Green could use some lessons in appropriately using them.

That said, in looking at the film from Cutler's start and some of Jake Plummer's recent starts, there were a lot of similarities. While it would be very easy to blame the Denver QB woes on Plummer, the former starter, or Cutler, there is more going on then meets the eye here. Plummer struggled for much of the three quarters of the season. Cutler entered last week and had the same issues.

This would be the exact argument I made last week. The offense being poor wasn't Jake Plummer's fault. As well, don't you hate it when "experts" talk about "looking at the film" when that probably means "rewinding the TIVO"? Perhaps the offensive struggles didn't necessarily have to do with "the players losing faith in Plummer" as Green argued last week?

When I looked at the tape of Cutler's start, the offense looked exactly the same. The play calling was similar. The plays called were similar. In talking with people in their organization, I was led to believe that the offense would change significantly with Cutler under center. Now comes word that head coach Mike Shanahan feels that some of Cutler's problems this past week can be attributed to them having too much in the playbook for the Seattle game. If they gave the young QB too much, then we sure didn't see it. What we saw was the same exact offense that had been rolled out onto the field in the previous 11 games.

Oh, and this is too rich (notice too, not to). Let's quote from one week ago. Jay Cutler would "open up the playbook". I couldn't believe at the time that Green would make that claim about a rookie quarterback, and I can't believe he doesn't apologize now for being a total idiot. Of course Shanahan now feels that there was too much in the playbook... Cutler is a freaking rookie! This isn't difficult to understand! I'm not sure why so many people missed the boat on Denver's panic attack.

Here's where we stand now...

1. Jay Cutler is a rookie
2. Denver will miss the playoffs
3. Jeremy Green is a two-faced liar

I'd brag more about being proven right here, but it's like arguing about the earth being round.

I Hate Finals Week

2006-12-07T14:36:00.000-08:00

Steelers over Browns, though I won't watch it.

I have to study such awesome terms as deconstruction, constitutive metamodel, fabula, heuristics, post-positivism, ideology, and distorted communication.

Yes, academics do live in another dimension.

Question: When Gil Meche gets $50 million for his ability to throw a baseball, isn't that the strongest arguement yet for baseball to adopt a salary cap a la the NFL?

Playoff Picture: Week 14... plus more!

2006-12-05T14:01:00.000-08:00

I like how an inordinate amount of our posts generally consist of apologizing for them not being insanely long pieces of brilliance... as if there are actually many readers out there who are like, "What? The Scientific Method was only 400 words? Woe is life! I will eat my Easy Mac while sobbing desperately!"

Anyways, no such apologies from me. I already know most of my posts are lame. Like this one.

Speaking of which, how about the Mariners? It would be more interesting if some of these rumors actually happened. I think all of us as M's fans are far more used to trade possibilities never happening (see: entire Stand Pat regime), but it seems like some of these actually make sense.

For example, take that Manny for Putz/Jones rumor. Boston gets a terrific young prospect and one of the best closers in baseball. We get an aging slugging superstar. To me, it's an example of a win/win. Now, throwing in Clement would be stupid, and if we gave Boston Jason Varitek AND Jeff Clement I would start hurting small defenseless animals out of rage.

I'm not entirely sure why San Francisco is so into Richie Sexson that they would consider giving up Noah Lowry, but I'm not going to complain if it's legit.

I do apologize to Dr. D, USSM, and LL for the refreshes yesterday and today. It's habit... and I'm bored.

Ok. Back to football and a big week for the Scientific Method.

Week 13 Results:
Scientific Method: 12-4 (would have been 13-3 if he'd listened to me about Arizona over St Louis)
Petey Prisco: 9-7
Bill Simmons: 10-6

Season Standings:
Scientific Method: 121-71
Petey Prisco: 120-72
Bill Simmons: 104-88

And the Scientific Method jumps back into the lead... this is going to be as exciting as any of the playoff hunts. In my opinion, the "Scientific Method" at this point should just be mimicking Petey's picks to solidify the victory, but I'm sure Colin wants to "earn" it, like there's a prize for winning other than not having me make fun of you.

The playoff picture itself? Getting odder by the second. The number of teams who are absolutely blowing games is a bit frustrating for many fans, I'm sure. I have to say I like it. Parity might equal mediocrity, but with the number of flat out awful teams from last season I don't mind the change.

AFC

1. Indianapolis (10-2... 7-1 conference record)
2. San Diego (10-2... 8-2 conference record)
3. Baltimore (9-3... 6-2 conference record)
4. New England (9-3... 5-3 conference record)
5. Cincinnati (7-5)
6. NY Jets (7-5)

Ok. Here's the deal. There are five 7-5 teams. Denver (7-3 conf), Kansas City (3-5), Jacksonville (4-4), NY Jets (5-4), and Cincinnati (5-3). Tiebreaker rules state that when there is a tie, first you select the highest team in one division.

That would be Denver and Kansas City, who split the head-head. The #2 tiebreaker is games played within the division. Denver has a 3-2 AFC West record, KC is at 3-1. So KC gets the nod. Now, against everyone else the head-head sweep doesn't mean much. Next is conference record. To me, that means Cincinnati gets the first wild card.

For WC #2, again KC gets the seed over Denver. That means the NY Jets have the edge... and as of right now my prediction regarding the Broncos is right on.

And Kansas City? Man, way to blow it. Both Denver and KC were in the playoffs as of last week...

As for the division leaders, the Colts still have the edge with their schedule, but that run defense... woof. San Diego also is starting to be fairly Indy-esque in only squeaking out wins against bad teams.

Indianapolis - at Jacksonville, vs Cincinnati, at Houston, vs Miami
San Diego - vs Denver, vs Kansas City, at Seattle, vs Arizona
Baltimore - at Kansas City, vs Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, vs Buffalo
New England - at Miami, vs Houston, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee
Cincinnati - vs Oakland, at Indianapolis, at Denver, vs Pittsburgh
NY Jets - vs Buffalo, at Minnesota, at Miami, vs Oakland

Denver - at San Diego, at Arizona, vs Cincinnati, vs San Francisco
Kansas City - vs Baltimore, at San Diego, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville
Jacksonville - vs Indianapolis, at Tennessee, vs New England, at Kansas City

I thought Baltimore would have blown a couple more for the Bengals to grab the division lead, but now Cincy has to really hang on. This home game against Oakland sure better not even be close for them to keep pace. These teams can only afford one loss to stick around.

NFC

1. Chicago (10-2)
2. New Orleans (8-4... 7-1 conference record)
3. Seattle (8-4... 6-3 conf record)
4. Dallas (8-4... 5-3 conf record)
5. NY Giants (6-6)
6. Philadelphia (6-6)

This is getting confusing. Instead of five 7-5 teams, there are four 6-6 teams... NY Giants (5-3 conf), Philly (5-3), Atlanta (4-4) and Carolina (4-5). Now, this is a lot easier, since these four only come from two divisions. The Giants have the head to head win over Philadelphia, and Atlanta over Carolina (both sets have games later in the year). With the Giants also beating Atlanta earlier in the season, the first WC seed is theirs. The second WC then is between Philly and Atlanta, and since they end the season against one another, it comes to conference record and to Philadelphia.

I'm sure there are some rules that will show me I'm wrong, but that's how I see it in both divisions. That also would make it an easy first win for Seattle if it should end up this way, because there's no way I see us losing to Philadelphia in Seattle.

Of course, all eyes here are on next week's showdown between New Orleans and Dallas. Since New Orleans has the tougher schedule, I'll be cheering them on.

Chicago - at St Louis, vs Tampa Bay, at Detroit, vs Green Bay
New Orleans - at Dallas, vs Washington, at NY Giants, vs Carolina
Seattle - at Arizona, vs San Francisco, vs San Diego, at Tampa Bay
Dallas - vs New Orleans, at Atlanta, vs Philadelphia, vs Detroit
NY Giants - at Carolina, vs Philadelphia, vs New Orleans, at Washington
Philadelphia - at Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas, vs Atlanta

Carolina - vs NY Giants, vs Pittsburgh, at Atlanta, at New Orleans
Atlanta - at Tampa Bay, vs Dallas, vs Carolina, at Philadelphia
San Francisco - vs Green Bay, at Seattle, vs Arizona, at Denver
St Louis - vs Chicago, at Oakland, vs Washington, at Minnesota
Minnesota - at New Orleans, vs NY Jets, at Green Bay, vs St Louis

Which games are on the schedule?

Week 14
Baltimore at Kansas City... the Chiefs after blowing last week need this one
Indianapolis at Jacksonville... can the Jaguars maintain their pace in the WC chase?
NY Giants at Carolina... obviously huge
Denver at San Diego... must win for the Broncos
New Orleans at Dallas... go Saints!

The Crush of Optimism

2006-12-04T22:33:00.000-08:00

Well, I finally found a time to blog. Midnight. It's late enough that I don't trust myself to write a sentence coherent enough to be graded, but I do trust myself enough to write a few words for you losers. Seriously, this semester...... let us just say that I'll be glad when this one is in the history books.

Enough of my whining. A few of you perhaps noticed that the Seattle Seahawks now stand with a record of 8-4. They are a whopping three games up in the NFC West, and have the #3 seed overall in the NFC. Hasselbeck is back. Alexander is back. Walter Jones does not appear to be injured. Oh. They just won at Denver, perhaps the hardest place to win on the road in all of football (outside of Qwest, of course).

As a long-time Seahawks fan, I should be ecstatic. I should be singing hymns, walking around campus with a ginormous smile plastered all over my face. I should relish the fact that, once again, the Seahawks will make it to the postseason, after so many seasons mired in mediocrity, when hope seemed dim.

Here's the problem (and it is a problem.... my problem).

I was not happy with our victory on Sunday night.

Don't get me wrong. I leaped into the air with joy after the final Denver turnover. I threw my dog up in the air after Josh Brown kicked yet another game-winning field goal.

BUT.....

I entered this season with dreams of grandeur, with as much optimism about a sports team as it is possible to have. I saw our roster as extremely solid (except in the secondary), and a January trip to Miami loomed large. It all seemed doable back in August. The sky was the limit for this Hawks fan.

I just feel that it is time to face facts. This team does not play like a championship team. Hasselbeck is regressing, though one must give him a few breaks, as he has dealt with a grand amount of injuries. Alexander flashed greatness the last two games, but there is still not the consistent pounding presence of the running game in our offense. D-Jack has reverted to drops-ville, as has Stevens, with Burleson completely disappearing as a factor on offense until Sunday night. Mack Strong suddenly appears mortal, with the end in sight. The offensive line, unbeatable for the last few years, looks mediocre. Basically, this offense, this #1 offense of a year ago, just can not seem to find the spark of last year.

I don't know what it is. The loss of Hutchinson can't have hurt this much. Perhaps it is a lack of a consistent lineup, with the laundry list of injuries. Maybe there has been a touch of a Super Bowl hangover. The stats simply do not lie, however. We are on a pace to have our worst offensive performance in five years. I was watching the majority of the game Sunday night with a sinking feeling in my chest, as our offense appeared less potent than Baltimore. Sure, Denver is a good defense, but we made them look like the Chicago Bears, which they are not. Indy destroyed them. Ditto Pittsburgh, who would have beat them if not for a few horrific turnovers by Big Ben. Ditto San Diego. Ditto Kansas City. You get the picture.

This is why I was entirely gloomy on Sunday, even as I watched the Hawks pull a gigantic win out of their collective behinds. But, hey, let's be honest here. The Hawks didn't so much win that game as Mike Shanahan lost it by deciding to start Jay Cutler. C'mon. We lose that game if Jake Plummer starts. Think about it. We scored how many points off Cutler turnovers? Their offense did what in the second half? Sure, Denver's offense wasn't exactly potent with Plummer, but it sure was better than what was on the field Sunday night.

Oh, and Josh Brown with four game-winning field goals? Two conclusions can be reached from that stat. First, our offense does find an on switch with two minutes to go in a ballgame. I like that. Second, our defense consistently can not hold a lead in the 4th quarter. We had a lead against the Lions. Gone. We had leads in both Rams games. One was lost on that ridiculous Tory Holt reception; the other on a Marc Bulger/Stephen Jackson march right down our collective throats. Oh, and the game-tying touchdown on Sunday? Worst bit of tackling I have ever seen. I want to argue for the inclusion of Michael Boulware, but when he pulls a stunt like that in limited playint time, I can't argue any longer.

Listen, I don't mean to pull a Steve Kelley here. Heaven forbid.

It's just that, for the first time in my life, I entered this season thinking that we had a gret shot of winning the Super Bowl. I have spent the first thirteen weeks of this season having my optimism slowly, slowly crushed, as we encountered a siege of injuries and inconsistent play. I am happy that we are on the way to win the NFC West. I am happy that we will be in the postseason once again. That is all fantastic.

I just wish that I could watch the Seattle Seahawks team that I thought I would be watching when the season started.

Oh well.

It could be worse. I could be a Carolina Panthers fan.

Seahawks vs. Broncos

2006-12-02T22:01:00.000-08:00

Since no one else is apparently going to comment on the upcoming game around here... here are a few of my thoughts. Unorganized, grammarless, half-cocked and without research; here they are:

Tomorrow's game has transformed from a tough game on the road (and thus an understandable loss) into... a golden opportunity on the road. If we think we've got a shot at the #2 seed this is a must win. 8 and 4 looks a lot better than 7 and 5... a game away from mediocrity.

The bad: Don't get me wrong, the 'Hawks have historically sucked (too lazy for actual stats) in Denver. Actually, the 'Hawks have historically sucked pretty much everywhere that's not Qwest Field. The fact that Denver's defense has been slipping all month and they'll be breaking in a brand new quarterback doesn't negate the fact that Seattle will still have to STOP THE RUN to win. Which, I think they can do with the injuries that have slowed the Bells. However, the Broncos have a pretty good o-line and our secondary and linebackers have had trouble tackling lately. Plus, you never know with a new QB. Not every good thing in football is planned.

Also, the Seahawks have come up lacking in every big game they've played this year. In our 4 biggest games (Chicago, Kansas City and St. Louis twice) we've a 2 and 2 record. Winning by a collective 4 points over the mediocre Rams and losing by a whopping 38 points to the Bears and Chiefs. Moreover, our wins seem to come against unimpressive teams like Arizona, Oakland, Detroit and Green Bay. Our one respectable win is against the Giants, who are fading fast at the moment.

The good: Even with horrible losses to San Francisco and Minnesota we're still 7 and 4. We haven't had Hassbleback and Alexander in the backfield since week three and we're still 7 and 4. The stats are skewed for the Hawks this season. With all the injuries there are no trends that mean anything for the season as a whole. You have to take each game on its own. This time we've got Hassleback and Alexander back and up to speed. That is why I'm optimistic about this game.

Hassleback vs. untested rookie + Alexander vs. injured Bells = victory in my mind. But the games aren't played in my mind and Denver's D could prove me wrong by showing up in a big way and scoring some points of their own. But I think it's far more likely the Seahawks will be the ones chasing a green QB around and forcing HIM to make mistakes--especially if the 'Hawks score first.

Bottom line: If the 'Hawks protect the ball, they win. 28 - 17. Sorry Lisa... and by "sorry" I mean "Eat my Seahawks-striped undershorts!"

After Party: Actually, talking of the post-season, end of the season record and all that makes me uncomfortable because the floor could still fall out from under the Seahawks. I've raised my hopes before... I'm thinking of a 6 and 2 team that finished 8 and 8. That still hurts. Seattle's got the talent to be 11 and 5 or 12 and 4 this season... but will they execute?

Tomorrow's victory is pre-dedicated to all the Seattle DB's who slowed Elway as much as an evening mayfly hatch slows my car's windshield. Spelling mistakes? Also as numerous in my writings as bugs on a summer windshield.

(Lame) Scientific Method: Week 13

2006-12-01T14:57:00.000-08:00

Lame because I have no time. Again, I apologize. If you want to come over here and write this thirty page paper for me, be my guest.

Sunday:
Arizona at St. Louis
Call me crazy, but Arizona sucks.
Scientific Pick: St. Louis

Atlanta at Washington
Suddenly Jason Campbell completes like eight balls, they win, and everyone believes they can beat Atlanta? Man, Michael Vick must really suck. Oh, wait.....
Scientific Pick: Atlanta

Detroit at New England
Um..... yeah......
Scientific Pick: New England

Indianapolis at Tennessee
Great win for the Titans against the Giants. Seriously.
Scientific Pick: Indy

Kansas City at Cleveland
When you get shut out against the Bengals, you know your offense might suck.
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

Minnesota at Chicago
That Minny defense is nice, but the Chicago defense is still better.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

NY Jets at Green Bay
For all those who think Brett Favre is back, he allowed SEATTLE'S cornerbacks to intercept him three times. Our cornerbacks, by the way, are completely terrible.
Scientific Pick: NY Jets

San Diego at Buffalo
How do the Bills keep winning these games? Sheer gumption?
Scientific Pick: San Diego

San Francisco at New Orleans
Yeah, the 49ers still kinda stink, especially on the road.
Scientific Pick: New Orleans

Houston at Oakland
So, people think that the previous o-coordinator for the Chicago Bears is going to solve this mess in Oakland? Really? You're going with that?
Scientific Pick: Houston

Jacksonville at Miami
No Ronnie Brown for the Dolphins means all Joey Harrington, which means bad news.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville

Dallas at NY Giants
I really want to pick against Dallas in this one, but Eli Manning has just looked terrible recently.
Scientific Pick: Dallas

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
I never thought I would write this, but that Tampa Bay defense is terrible.
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

Seattle at Denver
Automatic loss becomes a must-win with a rookie quarterback making his first start.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Monday:
Carolina at Philadelphia
Another defense that just looks terrible is Philly's, just what the doctor ordered for a struggling Jake Delhomme.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Quick Wednesday

2006-11-29T18:19:00.000-08:00

For the first time in my graduate career, the end of the semester has swamped me with papers to grade, papers to write, and other various research-related tasks that have completely zapped away my time to blog.

No big loss, I know.

I do want to echo the rest of the editorial board in the proclamation that the Hawks, on Monday Night, showed signs of coming back. I made a point to have ESPN turned on yesterday while I was grading papers, so that I could look up whenever someone talked about the Hawks, and I was pleasantly surprised with what I heard, because it's exactly what I believe.

Are we a contender? Yes.

Are we the favorite? Absolutely not. I rank the Bears and Cowboys as 1 and 1A right now, with the Hawks at about 2c, until we see more consistency from our stars through the next couple of weeks, including a tough, tough game against the Broncos Sunday night. This is a game that I pegged as an automatic loss going into the season, but now.....? Jay Cutler starting his first game? That's a game you have to win, don't you?

I will give the rest of my picks on Friday, but here is my prediction for the Bengals/Ravens get-together on Thursday night. Both teams seem to be playing up to their potential, which should bring a sigh of relief to Bengals fans, who were forced to watch their offense suck for the majority of this season. When that offense is playing well, and it currently is, I don't believe that any defense can truly stop it. Contain it, sure. Stop it? Absolutely not.
Scientific Pick: Cincinnati

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 13

2006-11-29T15:56:00.000-08:00

Hello, campers! It's time to toss out the current playoff picture from my position in the Hampton Inn in Dallas. It's really warm here... I was warned I should have a coat because "it might hit the high 40s". Oh my gosh! 49 degrees! I'll start massaging my legs to keep the circulation going!

In other news, I'm excited I'm not in Winter Wonderland, otherwise known as Seattle, having to deal with thousands of drivers who have absolutely no idea what ice looks like.

As to last week, most playoff teams did a very poor job, especially in the NFC, of winning games against bad teams. While I don't mind as a Seattle fan, it did affect the final standings of our friend the Scientific Method, who could have had an insane week if not for Carolina et al...

Week 12 Results
Scientific Method: 11-5
Petey Prisco: 10-6
Bill Simmons: 9-7

Season Standings
Petey Prisco: 111-65
Scientific Method: 109-67
Bill Simmons: 94-82

Well, time's running out for the Method to make its final move. I will NOT let Colin live it down if Petey wins. I can guarantee this.

On to the playoff picture!

AFC

1. Indianapolis (10-1)
2. Baltimore (9-2... beat San Diego earlier)
3. San Diego (9-2)
4. New England (8-3)
5. Denver (7-4)
6. Kansas City (7-4)

That's right, so far three AFC West teams are in the playoffs. Denver gets the nod over Kansas City because of their superior conference record (7-3 to 3-4... a bad Achilles heel for the Chiefs). As I mentioned before though, the Broncos have two very tough games left. I think they will drop at least one of their next two, opening the door for challengers, especially Cincinnati, who has a HUGE game this week against the Ravens. The Chargers still have the look of a championship contender, although the game against Oakland shouldn't have been so close. The Patriots would feel better about themselves if they could hold on to the football. Also, welcome back to the NY Jets to the playoff picture, only one game out.

Indianapolis - at Tennessee, at Jacksonville, vs Cincinnati, at Houston, vs Miami Baltimore - at Cincinnati, at Kansas City, vs Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, vs Buffalo
San Diego - at Buffalo, vs Denver, vs Kansas City, at Seattle, vs Arizona
New England - vs Detroit, at Miami, vs Houston, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee
Denver - vs Seattle, at San Diego, at Arizona, vs Cincinnati, vs San Francisco
Kansas City - at Cleveland, vs Baltimore, at San Diego, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville

Jacksonville - at Miami, vs Indianapolis, at Tennessee, vs New England, at Kansas City
NY Jets - at Green Bay, vs Buffalo, at Minnesota, at Miami, vs Oakland
Cincinnati - vs Baltimore, vs Oakland, at Indianapolis, at Denver, vs Pittsburgh

If I was a Jacksonville fan, I wouldn't feel too confident about making the postseason at this point. Miami is playing hot, then the Colts, Patriots, and Chiefs are still left to play. Unless they really pick up the pace, this team will be out of the postseason. The Jets have a fairly easy route, if they can play consistent ball they will threaten. Cincinnati has almost as tough a road as Jacksonville, except that Denver is now going with a backup QB and Pittsburgh is playing really bad football. The division leaders are probably already set, so the wild card race is all that interests me (although the game tomorrow could change that).

What about the NFC?

NFC

1. Chicago (9-2)
2. New Orleans (7-4)
3. Seattle (7-4)
4. Dallas (7-4)
5. NY Giants (6-5)
6. Carolina (6-5)

The Giants have a better conference record than Carolina, but have a showdown in a couple of weeks. The big game this week has to be Dallas at NY Giants. The G-Men are a desperate team. Either they are going to implode and open up the postseason to St Louis or San Francisco or they are going to win a few games on the backs of the immense talent they possess. Speaking of those teams, I hate to keep 5-6 teams in the picture, even if I have to. Why does Carolina keep losing to bad teams? They could be in the picture for a bye, but instead have decided to be a decidedly mediocre, incredibly disappointing squad. It just means that we have a lot of teams still in the race who don't deserve to be. Pretty much every 5-6 team sucks. There... I said it.

Chicago - vs Minnesota, at St Louis, vs Tampa Bay, at Detroit, vs Green Bay
New Orleans - vs San Francisco, at Dallas, vs Washington, at NY Giants, vs Carolina
Seattle - at Denver, at Arizona, vs San Francisco, vs San Diego, at Tampa Bay
Dallas - at NY Giants, vs New Orleans, at Atlanta, vs Philadelphia, vs Detroit
NY Giants - vs Dallas, at Carolina, vs Philadelphia, vs New Orleans, at Washington
Carolina - at Philadelphia, vs NY Giants, vs Pittsburgh, at Atlanta, at New Orleans

Philadelphia - vs Carolina, at Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas, vs Atlanta
Atlanta - at Washington, at Tampa Bay, vs Dallas, vs Carolina, at Philadelphia
San Francisco - at New Orleans, vs Green Bay, at Seattle, vs Arizona, at Denver
St Louis - vs Arizona, vs Chicago, at Oakland, vs Washington, at Minnesota
Minnesota - at Chicago, at New Orleans, vs NY Jets, at Green Bay, vs St Louis

Here's one statement I think I can make. The Vikings have it too tough to eke into that final slot. Also, San Francisco has some tough ones, as this game at New Orleans is a lot tougher than it used to be. I think the Rams have the best shot at being the team making its way in, because the Eagles will be off this list next week after losing to Carolina.

What games am I looking forward to?

Week 13
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Arizona at St Louis - The Rams will blow this one.
Dallas at NY Giants - The top two teams in the NFC East face off for the crown.
Carolina at Philadelphia
San Francisco at New Orleans
Seattle at Denver
Minnesota at Chicago
Jacksonville at Miami

SNOW DAY!

2006-11-28T08:55:00.000-08:00

Since I live on one of Seattle's many steep hills, I've got my first snow day since... well, ever. You see, we didn't get snow days when I was in school. I also didn't get to see Shaun Alexander dominate the Packers when I was in school either.

Last night was a tale of two halves. At the end of the first half I was as angry and depressed a Seahawks fan as you'll find. Green Bay squandered our bountiful gift basket of turnovers like I squandered my "allowance" on Star Wars cards... in high school. I was seething at the dropped passes, Jimmy Kimmel in the booth and the fact that it had taken me 80 minutes to get to a certain giant HD television. The thought of a 6 and 5 Seahawks team curdled my innards. Hasselback looked worse than Seneca and despite dominating time of possession, we were losing.
The thought "It couldn't get any worse" has failed me so many times before in Seattle sports it was no comfort to me last night. Still, I kept watching.

Josh Brown, the official team MVP right now, kept us in it. Yeah.
Hasselback putting his head down and rushing for first downs. Oh yeah.
Alexander making two fourth and shorts when EVERYONE knew we were running left against a good run defense. Houshmenzadeh yeah!
The icing on the cake? Stevens caught the stupid ball! Twice! That should keep his ego inflated 'till he drops another bundle of Superbowl passes. Maybe he should get kneed in the groin more often.

Young's comments after the game on the interdependency of the Seahawks team were right on. Our defense cannot stand on its own, unless you are very bad, like Oakland. Having Alexander back makes our o-line look like geniuses (a word I can't spell without the help of my wife) and gives Hasselback more time to throw, which lets our mighty midget defense rest and sharpen their shin kicking shoes. You see? Like links in a chain. We ain't perfect yet, but the Seahawks of the second half last night looked familiar. NFC Champion familiar.

Also, Steve Kelley and Dr. Ferreiro can bite me.

Finally!

2006-11-27T23:59:00.000-08:00

Many people will write more on this game, many pundits will point to specific moments.

Here's what this win for the Seahawks boiled down to...

We are back.

The staff of Crushed Optimists would officially like to apologize to Shaun Alexander for underrating the importance of his loss. It is difficult to describe how different our offense looked, even with that patchwork offensive line, with a healthy Shaun.

Green Bay has a good run defense, don't forget. This was the first 100 yard rusher they allowed all year. The domino effect was tremendous...

Shaun ran, so Matt had more time in the pocket.
Shaun ran, so we won the time of possession battle.
We won the TOP battle, so our defense was fresh and could make plays.

Colin says that Steve Young mentioned after the game how interdependent our team is. That's a good way to describe it, and it all starts with the run game. It ended with the most consistent offensive performance of the year. Only turnovers stopped our drives, other than that we were able to move up and down the field. A few less dropped passes and we put up 40.

I will say this, when we went down 21-12 I was down... as down as I've been all year with this team. I sat in my freezing seat, attempting to find some warmth somewhere, and it was bad. I could barely roust myself to stand up and yell during the next defensive stand. But we have a team with Matt Hasselbeck that comes back. To all those losers who said we still lose that game last week without Matt, I point to this win and tell them to watch some more football.

This was the team we thought we had. There are multiple reasons why we could have lost, multiple problems still there. Steve Kelley will probably write some glowing article about finding an electrical current. In a way he's right... we have Shaun Alexander back.

That #2 seed is looking awful nice...

Don't sleep on Seattle, America.

Denver Panic Time

2006-11-26T21:30:00.000-08:00

I have to gloat a little.

Three weeks ago, when I predicted the final playoff teams, I had Denver out, a team that was at 6-2 (and then 7-2). The reason being a four game stretch which they are currently in the middle of (vs San Diego, at Kansas City, vs Seattle, at San Diego). I wrote that those games could easily put a quality team at 7-6, just because those are tough opponents. You stick ANY team in that situation and you could go 0-4. What I could have written had I expanded on my thesis was that the absolute worst thing Mike Shanahan could do during that time is panic and bench Jake Plummer. Well, so much for that.

Look, as a Seahawk fan I welcome this move. Having Jay Cutler's first game against us is definitely a major positive for a team that has struggled on the road in general. It makes it a much more winnable game. I simply do not believe that Jake Plummer "lost" the job due to performance.

Just look at the past two games... a 35-27 loss against San Diego. If I remember correctly, it wasn't Jake Plummer who allowed Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson to run rampant down the field in the second half. Then at Arrowhead (ALWAYS a tough game), the Broncos lose 19-10. I watched that game as well, and it seemed to me that Jake Plummer was under pressure... oh... maybe about 90% of the times he dropped back to pass. The Denver offensive line was like a sieve.

I will say this... Plummer has not been a great QB this year. His 11 interceptions have been a lousy performance. He hasn't been able to adapt to carry the offense on his shoulders to cover for the lack of a running attack. But moving to a rookie when you are still in the playoff hunt is not the answer.

To provide an opposing point of view is one Jeremy Green of Scouts, Inc. I am convinced that Jeremy wrote the following in about five minutes in between a Sunday of pinball and air hockey. One minute per reason...

1. Confidence boost: One of the big reasons that Broncos coach Mike Shanahan balked at making the change earlier in the season was because the team had not lost faith in Plummer. With so many people outside the organization pointing the finger at Plummer now, it is easy for the players to buy into that theory as well. The bottom line is players are losing faith in Plummer, and you can't have that when it comes to the starting QB.

So let's see if I can get this straight. Pro football players are so stupid that they take their keys on who to respect from local beat writers or certain moronic ESPN analysts? Wouldn't these football players have a little less confidence in... I don't know... A FREAKING ROOKIE!!! Maybe that's why Mike Shanahan had balked at making the change earlier?

2. Spark the offense: Plummer's numbers weren't terrible. However, the offense looked flat and lifeless, and Cutler should be able to give them a spark.

Oh please. This is what passes for "Scouts, Inc" analysis? A five year old could have written it (and possibly did, if the grammar is any indication). What exactly constitutes a "spark" there, Mr. Green? When you were doing your fifteen years of scouting excellence for the Browns (nice work there, by the way), did you chart "sparky" players? Is it an aura of Ecksteinian proportions?

3. Open up the playbook: While one train of thought might be that Denver will be more limited offensively with Cutler, I see it a little differently. The bootlegs and waggles Denver likes to use with Plummer are far too predictable. In talking with people in their organization, Shanahan feels like Cutler gives Denver a chance to use more of the offense because of his ability to throw on the move and from the pocket.

I had to read this twice just to make sure he actually made this claim. Unfortunately, I was right. Jeremy Green actually believes that bringing in the first year quarterback will allow the Denver Broncos to "open up the playbook". I cannot believe I even have to debate this. "One train of thought" indeed. Anyone who actually believes that Cutler's playbook will be larger than Plummer's, the guy who had been in Denver for YEARS, who had taken them to the AFC Championship game in freaking January... I can't even come up with a decent insult. It's just so awful. Green needs to be kicked in the groin for even thinking anything like that, much less foisting it on us.

4. Cutler will open up the run game: He will give Denver's offense more of a vertical threat. With Plummer, the offensive became very conservative. Cutler's ability to stretch the field with the deep ball will eventually lead to Denver running the ball better because teams won't be able to put eight defenders in the box.

Riiiight. Because we all know that rookie quarterbacks open up the run game. Also, I have Javon Walker on my fantasy team. The reason Javon Walker has been a great addition to my fantasy team is because he's been thrown the ball deep on many an occasion. The problem with having a vertical threat outside of Walker, regardless of who is throwing the ball, is that there isn't another receiver faster than my grandma. I love Rod Smith, but man, he's lost about ten steps this year, and there isn't another Denver receiver even worthy of discussion right now. Teams aren't afraid of these wide receivers and will stuff the run. Also, didn't Denver always pride itself on being able to run regardless of the opposing game plan? Hmmm? Until this year, maybe??

5. Defense will benefit, too: Coming into Week 12, Denver was tied for 23rd in first downs per game. Shanahan prides himself on having an efficient West Coast offense. When you play ball-control football, you must be able to move the chains. By moving the chains and becoming more efficient, the defense will get more time to rest.

What is it, Jeremy Green? Is Denver's offense going to be more vertical or more ball-control? These two descriptions are what I'd like to call "mutually exclusive". Also, this argument is very weak.

Look, the Broncos offense is sputtering because its offensive line is playing very poorly. As I wrote above, Plummer had to the count of two to get rid of the ball last Thursday before the Chiefs would pile drive him and his beard into the turf. It can generate absolutely no push for Mike Bell/Tatum Bell/Whatever Undrafted Free Agent Mike Shanahan (Boy Genius) Thinks He Can Turn Into Terrell Davis. This is not a great situation to bring in a rookie.

Before you say, "But Gavin, what about Leinart and Young? They've done alright."

For starters, they were not awesome their first few times out. They also had plenty of margin for error (i.e. their teams were already out of the playoffs). They also are amazing talents. While Cutler had scouts drooling at the combine, he definitely was not in the class of the above two.

Look, perhaps Jay Cutler proves me wrong (I doubt it). That doesn't let Shanahan off the hook here. When you are 7-4 and in the middle of the playoff hunt, you do not change quarterbacks. It is a ridiculous decision, utterly ridiculous.

And I thank him for it. Go Seahawks!

Shat-lectrified?

2006-11-25T19:54:00.000-08:00

ABC... please don't foist this crap on us. Shatner dancing? Show Me The Money is yet another slow step in the inevitable march down into darkness, and I'd prefer that our empire fall after I retire.

I thought since Colin did a great job going through the arguments surrounding the Hawks I'd throw in a few thoughts on the Sonics. You remember the Sonics, right? They're the team that's moving to the OKC shortly, all because our state legislators are morons. They can't build roads, they can't build stadiums. Frankly, I'm not sure what our governor does other than massage Boeings' feet so they don't threaten to move again.

I've actually been watching the Sonics because a) I'm single and b) I'm single. I don't necessarily see any way I would actually continue to view their games otherwise. But hey, this just gives the benefit of passing my wisdom on to you!

First, the good news. Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Chris Wilcox, and Luke Ridnour are serious ballers. Ray has already answered the question as to whether this season is a "drop-off" year... no. He gets to the basket effectively still, although I'm a little sick of how he holds the ball out like it's a fresh Christmas turkey. In one of the last games that ball just got taken out of his hand, like the turkey by a homeless drunkard. Rashard has added some rebounding prowess to his game, and I just love his all-around offensive game. He's definitely on his way to elite status. Wilcox needs work running the high pick and roll, but his rebounding has been a nice surprise, and his defense has been much better than the end of the season. Ridnour, of course, has been the most improved player on the team. The confidence in his jumper, or to drive the lane with that sweet hesitation dribble, or even to defend the opposing point guard without that stupid hack.

We then have four legitimate 20 point scorers each night on the court... not many teams can profess to have that kind of balance. Why then, are we so mediocre?

I don't think the problem is too difficult to pin down. Thankfully it's not coaching. Bob Hill has a set rotation and seems to move players in and out rather effectively. Unfortunately, the bench has been absolutely dreadful. Outside of Nick Collison (who should really be considered a starter instead of Johan Petro) we don't have a single player off the bench who can be counted on as a nice burst of energy, a change of pace scorer or a shut down defender. We have some HUGE disappointments on said bench.

It starts with Earl Watson, who was counted on to be our Antonio Daniels. Watson was billed as a plus defender, a smart passer, and a decent shooter. He has been none of these. Opposing guards have been able to get around him easily. He has been mainly responsible for many awful turnovers, as his dribble penetration is often to nowhere and he does one of those stupid jump passes to a covered Sonic, or in other words starts a fast break for the opposing team. His offense adds nothing. His 42% (I think... too lazy to look up to confirm) 3 point shooting percentage of a year ago is nowhere to be found. Heck, he can barely hit a lay-in.

Next up comes Damien Wilkins, who can't buy a bucket to save his life. I remember his rookie year when Wilkins was a dependable outside shooter, and stepped in admirably for Rashard Lewis. There's a reason other teams wanted him. He looked like a quality young player. I don't know where any of that went. He doesn't rebound well, his defensive intensity has fallen off. Basically, Wilkins plays like someone who got paid. I REALLY hate to do this, but I miss Flip Murray, back when Flip Murray was a backup shooting guard who only touched the ball when we wanted him to shoot, not to stand at the top of the key and go through repetitive dribbling drills for 24 seconds. Murray was a scorer, an ignitor. We don't have that with Wilkins.

This means the Sonics are a team that isn't able to get into a groove. If the Sonics don't start well, the bench can't make up ground. If the starters do get a lead, the bench quickly coughs it up. There's a reason that Ray/Rashard are the #1 scoring combination in the league right now... they need bench help. Until these players turn it around, we're going to continue playing a lot of teams close... and then seeing how it turns out in the end.

EDIT:

Props to Dr. D for reminding me about Vladimir Radmanovic. A stone cold 4th quarter shooter if there ever was one. No one could collapse the paint, cutting off dribble penetration when the Rad-Man was setting up for another three.

Also, I had forgotten about some Bob Hill hubris. We need legitimate outside scoring punch off the bench. We drafted one Denham Brown from Connecticut. UW fans might remember Brown. He sank the last second three that tied the game in March that UConn won in overtime, with significant help from the striped ones. Instead, Hill gained a man-crush on Kareem Rush, who was injured, and then on Desman Farmer, who can't even sniff playing time. I thought the drafting of Brown was a good salvage on the abysmal showing on draft night with Sene. Instead, this particular draft was a total bust. How good would Marcus Williams, for example, look in a Sonics uniform? Shame on Hill for not giving Brown a legitimate shot at making the roster.

The Scientific Method: Week 11

2006-11-25T16:03:00.001-08:00

Come, talk a walk with me for four frigging awesome pieces by one Steve Kelley, working from the most recent to one done two weeks ago. Can you tell the differences? Let's see.....

Steve Kelley, November 22

(Coach Holmgren, I) believe that, more than any time since you arrived in Seattle in 1999, this season is on you.

That's right. It's your pudgy fault that Hasselbeck, Alexander, Engram, etc., all got injured. It's YOUR fault that our run defense has suffered, even though you have little control over the defense. It's YOUR fault that I currently have gas.

Something is wrong. Some kind of electrical current that relentlessly ran through this team last season is missing.

Some kind of electrical current? What?

But after your guys were humbled in Chicago, you gave the team the bye week off. That was a mistake. Midseason vacations should be earned, and that one wasn't.

That's right. Those guys lost the will to win because of that week off. If only you had given them more practices, we might have beaten the Chiefs with Seneca Wallace at quarterback!

And I think these "Victory Mondays," when you give them an off day after a win, are wrong. This team hasn't played well enough, even in its wins, to earn time off.

Yeah! And these "Taco Tuesdays" are a blatant pander to the Hispanic population. You have to beat someone by AT LEAST twenty points to get Monday off. Seriously.

I know this can't happen, but you should practice old-school this week, with tackling dummies for a defense that has forgotten how to tackle and blocking sleds for an offensive line that isn't opening holes.

I know this can't happen, but it's still your fault. Never forget.

After his six-game layoff, Alexander wasn't ready to carry the ball 17 times against the Niners. Morris should have gotten the bulk of the carries.

Yes, by all means, Morris was the correct running back against the 49ers. Again, basically you feel that the reason we are losing is because of a lack of energy and desire. Great.

Steve Kelley, November 20

But these Seahawks aren't those 2005 Seahawks. This team is missing something that last season's Seahawks had in spades. This team is softer than last season's team. It doesn't do the basics well, like blocking and tackling.

There is too much ho-hum on this team.

Last season, there wasn't one instance where the opposition appeared to want the game more. This season there has been Chicago, Minnesota, Kansas City and San Francisco.

In a freak coincidence, those are the same teams that we have lost to. Fortunately, there were five teams that didn't appear to want the game more. Those teams included Detroit, Arizona, NY Giants, St. Louis, and Oakland. Here's hoping that Green Bay doesn't want the game more, or we're screwed. By the way, I know what this team is missing. An electrical current running through them.

But they don't play defense. They didn't allow 416 offensive yards to the San Francisco 49ers. And nothing that happened at Monster Park should make us think the return to health of these five starters will staunch the here-today-gone-next-Sunday inconsistency of these Seahawks.

Nothing? Really? You don't think that the third interception by Seneca Wallace was a throw that Hasselbeck would also throw?

The Hawks committed five turnovers, something Super Bowl teams don't do.

The Chicago Bears, by far the best team in the NFC, have commited five turnovers in several games this season.

But something is missing this season. The Seahawks are losing games that Super Bowl teams should never lose.

It's 2004 all over again.

Because of their lack of heart. And missed tackles. And turnovers. OK.

Steve Kelley, November 19

Now, in his sixth season in the NFL, Ashworth says he has found another winner, another team with the same set of undefinable, undeniable intangibles as those Super Bowl-winning Patriot teams.

Whoa. The Hawks have a set of undefinable, undeniable intangibles? Do they, per chance, have a electrical current?

They have kept the Seahawks' solvent through the season's midsection, when the one-two punch, injuries to starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and running back Shaun Alexander, could have ruined a championship run.

But there have been more injuries and illnesses to this offense this season. More bad luck and bad news, the Seahawks have had to overcome. And more supporting players asked to do what Wallace and Morris have done.

Hmmmm. Injuries. Illnesses. Bad luck. Bad news. Really. Could those have potentially played an impact this season?

"On this level, good teams have to have guys who can go in and play and produce like the starters," said Spencer, a natural center who also has started games at guard this season. "It's not an excuse to have guys go in there and say they're young or this and that. You've just got to go in there and play. That's why you're on the team."

This team has persevered.

Again, he wrote this like THREE days before he completely blasted the team for its lack of perserverence.

But there is no doubting this team's resolve. And no denying the quality of its depth — quality of the players and quality of the people.

Wow. Do you think Steve Kelley reads his own columns before he writes his later columns. I say that because he is writing contradictory statements in the span of a week. Recall that "Victory Monday" and the week off after the Bears loss had completely taken the will to win out of the team (not out of San Francisco, however, though I blame that kicking Reebok suit and clip-on tie for that).

They don't find the camera lights. They don't fill up a reporter's notebook with inflammatory quotes. They go about their business quietly and professionally.

Ashworth, Spencer and Hackett. Every championship team has players just like them.

Except this isn't a championship team. This team is just like 2004.

Steve Kelley, November 13

This season, they're going to muck their way into the playoffs. Winning games on one or two game-changing plays. Winning with resilience and timeliness and luck.

Resilience. A hallmark of a "current of energy" lacking team. Again, what is this?

Ned Macey (Football Outsiders, November 21)

But the truth is that the two best teams in the NFC West are among the worst teams in football.

Wow. You're actually going to say that the Seattle Seahawks are among the worst teams in football. You believe that to be the case. The Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks currently rank 25th with a DVOA of -15.1%. Both the rank and the DVOA rating itself are the lowest of any Super Bowl Loser since 1999 except for the 2003 Raiders.

Well, since DVOA says that they are the 25th rated team, I withdraw my objection. Certainly a fine statistical projection like DVOA has been able to understand and control for the massive injuries that have crippled the Hawks offense. Anybody who has ever taken a statistics course knows that the worst sin of a statistician is to dramatically overpromote your findings. Unfortunately, and this is the curse of a 16 game season, a few terrible games can drastically lower a team's profile according to the markers of team DVOA. Also, unfortunately, this statistic can not understand how important a quarterback is to not only an offense, but to a team as well. A good quarterback both means points up on the board, but he also means a longer time of possession, which helps the defense, as they have to defend fewer possessions as well as have better field postion with which to defend.

The Seahawks are not a good team, and they will be lucky to finish 9-7. Sadly, that is likely good enough for them to win their division.

Enough of this. This is what I'm hearing across newspapers and message boards.

The Hawks just aren't a good team. This is 2004 all over again. The Hawks just don't have any heart. They just don't care. We might struggle to win 10 games this season.

To the Steve Kelleys of the world, who write glowing reviews of the team after they luck into a win (St. Louis) and write inflammatory pieces after they lose a game they should have won (San Francisco), I salute you for your horrible analysis and lack of actual insight as to the state of the team. It is easy to simply roll on a emotional roller coaster during the course of an NFL season, as each game means a great deal to the playoff implications. However, it is harder to try and stay the course, teasing out the real conclusions to be reached out of every win and loss.

For example, while I was ecstatic about the St. Louis win, I understood (as hopefully most of you did), that Seneca Wallace did everything in his power to lose us that ballgame. What did most of America see? That Seneca Wallace was a more than capable backup who had the necessary spark to catapult us towards the playoffs. This is why I was worried about the San Francisco game. Did I think we would win? Absolutely. Give us the same situation, even with Wallace starting, and I would pick us to win again. But when you have a quarterback like him starting, you can potentially win every game, and you can potentially lose every game.

Personally, after the first few runs by Gore, I was impressed by our defense. There was the tough stop towards the end of the half (when, by the way, they had been out there ALL HALF). There was the field goal black, where they definitely displayed some intensity and heart. There was the strip by Lofa after all hope seemed lost. Seriously, they SHUT OUT the 49ers in the second half. You give Matt Hasselbeck SEVERAL chances to get a game-winning touchdown, and I put serious money on us winning that ballgame.

Are there problems with this team? Absolutely. It appears that our defense can either struggle against the pass or struggle against the run. There is no dominance to be seen so far. It also appears that Mack Strong is on his way out of the NFL, as he is playing at a horrendous level.

Is this a championship caliber team right now? I don't know. I honestly don't know. This is what I do know. We have six games left in the regular season. At this point LAST season, everyone had counted the Pittsburgh Steelers out. Everyone had counted the Washington Redskins out. Those two teams became the hottest teams heading into the postseason, and it took a horrible injury to Clinton Portis to ground the 'Skins. I can tell you that I am very interested in what transpires the next two weeks, with Hasselbeck back in the lineup. This is where conclusions can be made.

Seriously, people, calm down. Take a deep breath. Enjoy a good football team, and pray that they gel into a great football team in time for the postseason.

By the way, the Scientific Method is off to a 3-0 start, and will seek to carry that momentum into Sunday. The picks!

Sunday:
Arizona at Minnesota
Wow. Two terrible teams, but I still like that Minny defense.
Scientific Pick: Minnesota

Carolina at Washington
Again, I shy away from Jason Campbell, though he had a good first start. Carolina is starting to play well.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Cincinnati at Cleveland
It appears to finally be time for Cincy to get into high gear. They get another nice win on the road.
Scientific Pick: Cincinnati

Houston at NY Jets
I have no idea about either of these squads. I always pick both of them wrong.
Scientific Pick: NY Jets

Jacksonville at Buffalo
I like that Jaguars defense going against JP Losman.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville

New Orleans at Atlanta
Two teams seriously on the skids, though New Orleans, at least, has an offense.
Scientific Pick: New Orleans

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
The roll continues for Pittsburgh, who is quite simply one of the best teams in the NFL, record notwithstanding.
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

San Francisco at St. Louis
San Fran does play great at home, but continues to struggle on the road against anyone not named Detroit.
Scientific Pick: St. Louis

Oakland at San Diego
I've racked my brain, and can't come up with a scenario where Oakland wins.
Scientific Pick: San Diego

Chicago at New England
The safe pick here would be Tom Brady and New England, but a fast defense has been known to rattle the Golden Boy, like Denver.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

NY Giants at Tennessee
Another team needing a win finally comes through, as Tiki Barber has a huge day.
Scientific Pick: NY Giants

Philadelphia at Indianapolis
Peyton Manning versus Jeff Garcia
Scientific Pick: Peyton Manning

Monday
Green Bay at Seattle
Yeah, an upset is not happening here.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

The Scientific Method: Thanksgiving Games

2006-11-22T10:35:00.000-08:00

Real fast post here, people, as I'm heading down to spend Turkey Day with the grandparents. I'll write an extended post on Saturday.

I do want to say that I'm beginning to get a tad annoyed with various sportswriters who, apparently, now believe that the Hawks are a below-average team. More on THAT on Saturday as well (looking at you, Steve Kelley). Even Football Outsiders now consider us to be mediocre, though it's a tad difficult to see how their stats can judge the very real impact that injuries have made in our offense, and, even, our defense (news flash: when our offense struggles, our undersized defense tires and also struggles).

The picks:

Miami at Detroit
Can someone please, for the love of all that is Holy, tell me why the NFL insists on keeping Detroit as one of the Thanksgiving stalwarts? When was the last time that a Detroit game was meaningful? The Barry Sanders era? Facing them are the suddenly potent Miami Dolphins, winners of three straight. Make that four straight.
Scientific Pick: Miami

Tampa Bay at Dallas
If you believe that I am picking Dallas to lose after they just beat Indianapolis, well, you have several screws loose. Dallas, unfortunately, is playing like the second best team in the NFC right now (if not the best), and will make for yet another boring Thanksgiving Day game. I might actually have to talk with people instead of watching football this year.
Scientific Pick: Dallas

Denver at Kansas City
Won't be watching this one, as the grandparents don't have NFL Network, like the majority of individuals in the United States. This is too bad, as it is the only interesting game on tomorrow. My point. Until Denver can show me any consistency on offense..... at all...... I have to go with Kansas City, with a healthy Trent Green with one game already under his belt (against a pretty darn good Oakland defense, by the way).
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 12

2006-11-21T16:56:00.000-08:00

Yes, it's a holiday week. Yes, that means everything gets a little abbreviated...

This playoff picture thingy didn't exactly get more ironed out this past week (thanks a lot Seahawks). Did it at least mean that the Scientific Method caught up with Petey Prisco? Let's find out...

Week 11 Results:
Scientific Method: 9-7
Petey Prisco: 11-5
Bill Simmons: 9-7

Season Standings:
Petey Prisco: 101-59
Scientific Method: 98-62
Bill Simmons: 85-75

Sorry Science. You get burned by Petey actually picking SF to beat Seattle.

What about the playoff picture itself?

AFC

1. Indianapolis (9-1)
2. Baltimore (8-2... beat San Diego head-to-head)
3. San Diego (8-2)
4. New England (7-3)
5. Denver (7-3)
6. Jacksonville (6-4)

First off, mad kudos to Gavin for picking Indy's loss to Dallas two weeks ago. I think, with all the wrong picks I make, this particular one is deserving of all you jerks getting off my back for a while. Secondly, Denver did not look good last week losing to San Diego. Look at their schedule, including the just-flexed game against Seattle. They have a tough road, friends. There's a reason I picked them to miss the postseason and it could very well happen.

Jacksonville is tied with Kansas City for the final spot but gets the edge right now with a better Conference record. Remember, they play each other the last week of the season. This is going to get more interesting.

Also still in it would be Cincinnati and the NY Jets (who should have played a lot better against the Bears). Until the Steelers hit .500, I'm not including them here. On to the remaining schedules!

Indianapolis - vs Philadelphia, at Tennessee, at Jacksonville, vs Cincinnati, at Houston, vs Miami Baltimore - vs Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati, at Kansas City, vs Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, vs Buffalo
San Diego - vs Oakland, at Buffalo, vs Denver, vs Kansas City, at Seattle, vs Arizona
New England - vs Chicago, vs Detroit, at Miami, vs Houston, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee
Denver - at Kansas City, vs Seattle, at San Diego, at Arizona, vs Cincinnati, vs San Francisco
Jacksonville - at Buffalo, at Miami, vs Indianapolis, at Tennessee, vs New England, at Kansas City

NY Jets - vs Houston, at Green Bay, vs Buffalo, at Minnesota, at Miami, vs Oakland
Kansas City - vs Denver, at Cleveland, vs Baltimore, at San Diego, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville
Cincinnati - at New Orleans, at Cleveland, vs Baltimore, vs Oakland, at Indianapolis, at Denver, vs Pittsburgh

One more thing before moving on... if the Jaguars can actually beat teams they are supposed to (looking at you, Houston), they have a darn good shot to clinch, because I'm still not sold on Miami. Still, the dark horse is definitely Cincinnati, who I picked to pass Baltimore. The Bengals have four straight wins looking them in the face right now. Let's see if they take advantage before a murderous last few weeks.

NFC

The Chicago Bears can start resting starters now. With a nice three game lead for the #1 seed, including tiebreakers over Seattle and the NY Giants, they will definitely relax... and then lose in the playoffs. I'm sorry. It's going to happen.

Also, this conference is nutty. There are FIVE 6-4 teams. FIVE.

1. Chicago (9-1)
2. NY Giants (6-4)
3. Seattle (6-4)
4. Carolina (6-4)
5. New Orleans (6-4)
6. Dallas (6-4)

Okay. Let's see if I can explain this well. New York beat Dallas earlier, so they hold the tiebreaker and would win the NFC East. Carolina beat New Orleans and would win the NFC South. Now, for seeding, Seattle did beat NY (man, that feels like a while ago), but since they didn't SWEEP both the Giants and Carolina I think (note: think) the tiebreaker reverts to Conference record, giving the Giants the edge.

Now, New Orleans and Dallas haven't played yet, but will in a few weeks, but for now the Saints have a better conference record.

San Francisco, Atlanta, and Philly are still in it, even if the Eagles are now toast without McNabb.

Schedule Time!

Chicago - at New England, vs Minnesota, at St Louis, vs Tampa Bay, at Detroit, vs Green Bay
NY Giants - at Tennessee, vs Dallas, at Carolina, vs Philadelphia, vs New Orleans, at Washington
Seattle - vs Green Bay, at Denver, at Arizona, vs San Francisco, vs San Diego, at Tampa Bay
Carolina - at Washington, at Philadelphia, vs NY Giants, vs Pittsburgh, at Atlanta, at New Orleans
New Orleans - at Atlanta, vs San Francisco, at Dallas, vs Washington, at NY Giants, vs Carolina
Dallas - vs Tampa Bay, at NY Giants, vs New Orleans, at Atlanta, vs Philadelphia, vs Detroit

Philadelphia - at Indianapolis, vs Carolina, at Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas, vs Atlanta
Atlanta - vs New Orleans, at Washington, at Tampa Bay, vs Dallas, vs Carolina, at Philadelphia
San Francisco - at St Louis, at New Orleans, vs Green Bay, at Seattle, vs Arizona, at Denver

Again, I'll put back in the 4-6 teams when they hit .500. Until then, they are bad mediocre teams.

What about the games I'm most looking forward to that I'd picked a few weeks back?

Week 12
Denver at Kansas City
New Orleans at Atlanta
Chicago at New England

Not that exciting a week ahead, but hopefully we have some separation in the NFC. Have a great Thanksgiving, all!

Seahawk Rant

2006-11-19T18:42:00.000-08:00

This one finally got me.

I've been able to basically recuperate after most of our losses. Either they were expected (i.e. Chicago, Kansas City) or it was the same game Hasselbeck goes out in (Minnesota... not a great loss by any stretch, but somewhat forgiveable). Not today. This was absolutely horrendous.

Who to blame? Probably the easiest of the many questions facing Mike Holmgren tonight. Seneca Wallace, who singlehandedly cost us this win.

The staff at Crushed Optimists have not been extremely impressed with Wallace, hopefully we've made that totally clear the past month. His decision making has been very poor time after time after time. For example, the 4th play pass to Mack Strong at the end of the Kansas City game, when Wallace made an extremely stupid decision. It's almost as if he just wanted to avoid the bad interception many weeks.

Against the Raiders Wallace looked fairly good in the first half within the scripted offense, and then fell apart, keeping Oakland in the game. Against the Rams, again he struggled after the first half. His quarterback ratings have been overall good, another indication of their inability to give a totally accurate picture of effectiveness.

Today Wallace was beyond abysmal. All three interceptions were inexcusable. On the first, Darrell Jackson had three Broncos around him. On the second, there was no place to put the ball. The third, of course, was the backbreaker. The defense (who had a valiant effort today, especially in the second half) came up with a key turnover. We had a minute and a half to march down the field with all three timeouts, and all the momentum on our side. So Wallace first completely misses seeing a rusher (boo on Walter Jones for allowing that sack too), and then stares down an interception to nowhere. What was so awful about that pass was that he didn't even go through progressions. He was looking exactly where he threw it the entire play, and then put it into a space where there wasn't a Hawk within ten yards.

What about the defense? Well, if the coaching staff belives Jordan Babineaux is an improvement on Michael Boulware they sure weren't watching the same game I was. Babineaux missed the final tackle on EVERY single big run Frank Gore had, and got beat bad deep by Antonio Bryant (lucked out on the holding penalty nullifying that one). Boulware needs to be reinserted into the lineup, and now. The "D" held up against the run later in the game, and did a fairly decent job through most of the second half on Gore. In the second quarter they were basically out there the entire time backed up on our own thirty after another turnover.

What about Shaun? Well, he was definitely starting to get his legs under himself in the second half, hitting the line with more authority. We couldn't go to him more because of the situation. On the 4th down play, the commentators got on Holmgren for calling a Shaun run. I thought it was the correct call. With how poorly Wallace had been playing, you want the biggest play of the game decided by your two best players, Shaun and Walter Jones. It didn't work out, but I sure didn't have confidence that Wallace would have picked it up himself. I think that we'll get a much better performance out of our MVP next week.

That's the great news. Hasselbeck will be back next week. Shaun will be back with more confidence. We don't have to make apologies for mediocrity anymore. We'll actually get to see if this team can be what we thought it was over these last six weeks. I can't wait. I'll be that crowd next Monday night, and it is going to be unbelievable when they introduce those offensive starters and we can tell our best players how much we appreciate having them around again. Back when Matt went down I predicted we'd go 2-2 without him. Well, that's exactly what we did, except our 2-2 record was slightly better because we beat the Rams. We are a far better team than the 49ers. I think the second half proved that, and I really don't think the home game is going to be very close. So we still are on track to get the #2 seed in the NFC, we still are on track to get the NFC West, and we are still on track to be a very dangerous underrated team come playoff time.

I'm really excited I don't have to see another batted down pass.

Apple Cup '07

2006-11-17T19:14:00.000-08:00

So... Tomorrow's game has the making of one of the worst Apple Cups ever. The facts:

1) WSU sweaters on paunchy balding men at work vastly outnumbered UW parephenalia. I don't care how it's spelled.
2) That's right. Co-workers. I have a job.

I have to say the 'Cougs have a shot at winning and thus, justifying their existence for another season. In fact, they should win this game. Despite the fact they only win 1 out of every five Apple Cups, this is that one. Not only is the game in Pullman, home of nothing, these Huskies have no bite. They'll likely have a #3 QB playing significant time with a running game that gains maybe a yard a carry. Booyah. Still, WSU managed to lose by over 30 points to a team from Arizona. These teams are playing awful football right now.

The upside? The 'Cougs also have maybe the funniest broadcasters outside of east-side (of the mountains) high-school football, which Thiel writes on well. Also, this guy is funny. I hope he writes more for the PI. This game is all about bragging rights--more of a at-least-we-don't-suck-as-bad-as-they-do cup than anything else.

Playoff Picture: Week 11 - NFC

2006-11-15T14:58:00.000-08:00

I should start out by mentioning that apparently there was an error in yesterday's analysis. Since Jacksonville beat the NY Jets (crushed them) earlier in the year, the Jags are the #6 seed right now in the AFC. So... the Jets are a great story, and are right in the thick of it, but not in yet.

On to the NFC!

1. Chicago (8-1)
2. New Orleans (6-3... better conference record than Seattle, NY Giants)
3. Seattle (6-3... beat NY Giants head to head)
4. NY Giants (6-3)
5. Philadelphia (5-4)
6. Atlanta (5-4)

This conference gets a bit tougher to figure out. There are four teams at 5-4 (Philly, Atlanta, Dallas, Carolina). As I understand tiebreakers, you get the "winner" out of each division. Since Philly beat Dallas and Atlanta beat Carolina, you have your top two wild cards at this time. The biggest change from week to week has to be the Giants, who move from the #2 seed all the way to #4 by virtue of their flop against the Bears. That's also two home losses for the Giants, a bad omen as the season winds down.

There are also four 4-5 teams that I feel obligated to keep in the playoff picture, including St Louis and San Francisco. Look, we all know they suck, but they are only one game out of it, and since the NFC South and NFC East are going to pound one another into the ground there is definitely an outside chance of sneaking in. The Hawks, obviously, are in a terrific position to snag the #2 seed, but without another team getting hot, the Bears cooling off, and having a three-way tie for first, there really isn't a legitimate chance at catching Chicago. So, as odd as it seems, both #1 seeds are virtually assured with most of the season still to go. How do the schedules look?

Oh... and to the NFC-haters, when you don't have a league that contains just about every single awful team available (Oakland, Tennessee, Houston) that helps prop up your "dominant teams", you can talk. Until then, shut up.

Chicago - at NY Jets, at New England, vs Minnesota, at St Louis, vs Tampa Bay, at Detroit, vs Green Bay
New Orleans - vs Cincinnati, at Atlanta, vs San Francisco, at Dallas, vs Washington, at NY Giants, vs Carolina
Seattle - at San Francisco, vs Green Bay, at Denver, at Arizona, vs San Francisco, vs San Diego, at Tampa Bay
NY Giants - at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, vs Dallas, at Carolina, vs Philadelphia, vs New Orleans, at Washington
Philadelphia - vs Tennessee, at Indianapolis, vs Carolina, at Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas, vs Atlanta
Atlanta - at Baltimore, vs New Orleans, at Washington, at Tampa Bay, vs Dallas, vs Carolina, at Philadelphia

Dallas - vs Indianapolis, vs Tampa Bay, at NY Giants, vs New Orleans, at Atlanta, vs Philadelphia, vs Detroit
Carolina - vs St Louis, at Washington, at Philadelphia, vs NY Giants, vs Pittsburgh, at Atlanta, at New Orleans
St Louis - at Carolina, vs San Francisco, vs Arizona, vs Chicago, at Oakland, vs Washington, at Minnesota
San Francisco - vs Seattle, at St Louis, at New Orleans, vs Green Bay, at Seattle, vs Arizona, at Denver
Minnesota - at Miami, vs Arizona, at Chicago, at New Orleans, vs NY Jets, at Green Bay, vs St Louis
Green Bay - vs New England, at Seattle, vs NY Jets, at San Francisco, vs Detroit, vs Minnesota, at Chicago

Okay, what do we see here? Well, hopefully a bunch of teams who will drop off this list shortly, but none probably will until they hit seven losses. At least one 9-7 team will make the playoffs in the NFC. I think it will be fascinating to see if (as Colin predicted) one NFC West/North team sneaks in because of their inferior schedule. San Francisco and Green Bay are not good teams. Not even close. Yet, if they get on a hot streak, they have a bunch of winnable games on their schedule. I hate the Rams, but don't be surprised if they sneak past a better team like Carolina or Atlanta to get in.

Just for kicks, I'm also throwing in the Games of the Week that I picked at midseason to see if they're still enjoyable, and to throw in anything more if necessary...

Week 11
Chicago at NY Jets - I called this one for NY
Atlanta at Baltimore
St Louis at Carolina
Indianapolis at Dallas - Making the pick again. Indy will be 8-1.
San Diego at Denver
NY Giants at Jacksonville

Any other games? Nope. Maybe our game (but I can't make myself care that much) or the New Orleans-Cincy tilt. But the games above are all going to be awesome. This week looks like it could be the best of the season. Be sure to grab a seat and ride the wave.

The Scientific Method: Week 11 (Abbrev.)

2006-11-15T14:31:00.000-08:00

Once a year, on the shores of Galgalek, near the towering Mt. Enduin, a scenic valley is disrupted from the normal pursuit of life. Animals scurry into caves, hide under rocks, and in trees. The very clouds appear to dim, casting a depressing pall over the entire sum of the region. Even the wind hints at discontent, whispering a message of dismay as it flits over loping hills and around overgrown bushes and ferns.

"The academics are coming......sssssss......"

"The academics are coming......sssssss......"

For, at a time known only to themselves, various communication scholars from across the world gather here to discuss studies of equitable relationships, the phenomenon of friends with benefits, and the correlation between the communication of affection and an individual's rise in cholesterol. It is a time of immense insufferability, hints of grandeur, and, for many, a few dozen trips to the mini-bar.

Needless to say, I am going to said convention this week, leaving tomorrow, which means that I must submit for you my scientific picks today, a Wednesday, leaving me at a severe disadvantage for no apparent reason. Who knows? I might learn a piece of information about communication over the weekend, one bit that I will gladly share with all of you loyal readers (except for Jimmy McWhiskers, who wishes us to stick only to the realm of sporting events and various tomfoolery).

I should (nay, I MUST), though, mention one other bit of my week. My regular night class was cancelled yesterday (praise be to the Most High), leaving me home on a Tuesday night with little to watch (unless I wanted to talk with my wife ). To my surprise, a new game show was appearing on ABC starring one William Shatner, one "Show Me The Money".

I watched this show for about fifteen minutes. I wish to tell you all to flee from ever considering doing the same. Take this warning, for the sake of your family, for your children, and for your love of life itself. All I saw was a looooong dance sequence with fifteen bee-yoo-tiful ladies (stealing from "Deal or No Deal"), William Shatner dancing (not bee-yoo-tiful in the least), a contestent dancing multiple times (there's gay, there's super-duper-nuper-kee-uper gay, and then there's this contestant), and questions that wouldn't challenge Earl Hickey, like "On what show did the Soup Nazi say, "No soup for you!"" This guy won $220,000 for knowing that. That is boggling to the gray area known as the mind. So..... please..... for your sake.....

On to the picks!

Sunday:
Atlanta at Baltimore
Let me get this straight. Michael Vick sucked against Detroit. Michael Vick sucked against Cleveland. Michael Vick is now playing Baltimore. What is the logical conclusion of this progression? I can't believe that I am actually picking Baltimore to go 8-2. Great googly-moogly.
Scientific Pick: Baltimore

Buffalo at Houston
Well, here's a game that we can all care about not even slightly. Losman! Carr! Gado! A-Train! Jauron! It's an actual NFL game! Seriously, though, it's time to see if Houston can just picture Jacksonville's jerseys on another NFL team.
Scientific Pick: Houston

Chicago at NY Jets
I was completely wrong on the Jets before this season started. I freely admit that. I thought they would be absolutely atrocious. However, that win against the Pats really showed me something. Specifically, it showed me that they won't get blown out by Chicago.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Cincinnati at New Orleans
Cincinnati, where are you? You were supposed to go to the Super Bowl, buddies! Your defense allowed 42 points in a single half to a Marty-led team! Wowsers! By the way, New Orleans' defense has been figured out. They're thin and weak at the seams. I expect this to be another high-scoring affair.
Scientific Pick: Cincinnati

Minnesota at Miami
Minnesota has just looked atrocious on offense ever since whupping us. That feels awesome, by the way, thanks. Miami just beat Chicago and Kansas City in a turn of events that can only be called.... whaaaaa? Well, why not play the hot hand here?
Scientific Pick: Miami

New England at Green Bay
New England has just lost two games in a row, causing the residents of Boston to completely lose all grip on reality and believe that their baseball team just spent $50 million simply to talk to a free agent pitcher.
Scientific Pick: New England

Oakland at Kansas City
My refusal to talk about anthing Oakland is still in effect. Good move by Kansas City starting Trent Green, however.
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Now, if Pittsburgh wins their next seven games, they will be 10-6, with a shot at the postseason. Game #1 in their quest should be a snap.
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

St. Louis at Carolina
I'm actually a tad torn on this one. St. Louis has lost four in a row, including two to us, which is frigging sweet. Carolina simply hasn't looked good, including their win on Monday night. I'm actually going to go on a limb here.
Scientific Pick: St. Louis

Tennessee at Philadelphia
Buh. Vince Young against that ferocious Philly defense isn't a matchup that I relish watching.
Scientific Pick: Philly

Washington at Tampa Bay
Hey! These teams were both supposed to be good entering the year! Now it is the battle of Gradkowski versus Campbell, with absolutely nothing at stake. Nothing against nothing means going with my old stalwart, never picking a rookie quarterback making his first start.
Scientific Pick: Tampa Bay

Detroit at Arizona
Oh, man, this is terrible. What a terrible game.
Scientific Pick: Detroit

Seattle at San Francisco
I picked against us last week, and they gladly proved me wrong. I'm not going to make the same mistake twice in a row.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Indianapolis at Dallas
Indy is on the trek to be 16-0 yet again! Boo-yah! 16-0! Yes!
Scientific Pick: Dallas

San Diego at Denver
If this game was in San Diego, I would pick San Diego. This game is in Denver. I pick Denver
Scientific Pick: Denver

Monday:
NY Giants at Jacksonville
Both Eli Manning and David Garrard looked flat out awful last week. The one with the best chance of turning that around? Neither, but I hear Tiki Barber is pretty sweet.
Scientific Pick: NY Giants

Playoff Picture: Week 11 - AFC

2006-11-14T14:09:00.000-08:00

This past week was not a very good one for teams pushing for playoff positioning.

New Orleans loses to Pittsburgh (although they did put up a good battle)
NY Giants lose to Chicago (Eli Manning absolutely hands the Bears a win... Chicago did not play well again on the road. In fact, the Bears are starting to look positively beatable. You can run on them if you get a helmet on Urlacher, and you can easily get into Rex Grossman's head.)
New England loses (at home AGAIN) to the Jets (and Bill Simmons eventually will acknowledge that Deion Branch was an enormous loss)
Cincinnati loses to the Chargers (virtually knocks them out of the playoffs)
Atlanta loses inexcusably to the Browns (they had a schedule advantage... this doesn't help)
Jacksonville loses AGAIN to the Texans (I'm speechless... just a terrible loss in every way)
Kansas City loses to Miami (went away from Larry Johnson... Damon Huard looked like he was believing his own hype)
Minnesota loses to the Packers (the Vikings officially played their best game of the season against us... which is why that loss still hurts the most)

By my count, that's eight teams who took hard losses, who didn't come up when they had to in big games (you could probably throw St Louis in there as well). The second half of the season is when it counts, when every game can be a playoff game. You have to bring it. Let's see what the aftermath was... although first we'll take a look at our Scientific Method, who didn't necessarily predict this bloodbath.

Week 10 Results:
Scientific Method: 10-6 (big kudos for picking the Browns win... we at CO love to pick further points in the "Michael Vick will never be the MVP in the NFL" bubble whenever possible"
Petey Prisco: 7-9
Bill Simmons: 10-6

Season Standings:
Petey Prisco: 90-54
Scientific Method: 89-55
Bill Simmons: 76-68

Science... you are that close. Do us proud. Don't make Prisco look good.

How about that playoff picture?

AFC

1. Indianapolis (9-0)
2. Denver (7-2... over Baltimore because of the better conference record, over San Diego with the better divisional record)
3. Baltimore (7-2)
4. New England (6-3... over San Diego because WC teams have to be #5-6)
5. San Diego (7-2)
6. NY Jets (5-4)

Round One: NY Jets at Baltimore, San Diego at New England (what a first round game!)

First off, what a turn around for the Jets to be in the playoffs right now, and here's how it happened. They are tied with Kansas City and Jacksonville with 5-4 records. However, Kansas City has an awful conference record of 1-4 (which means they definitely shouldn't be depending on tiebreakers to get in), and Jacksonville is at 3-3. So the Jets, with their 4-4 record slip in. Congrats to coach Mangini and friends. They're not a great team, but the AFC East is awful, and they are winning games. The Rams and Vikings are comparable teams who are not winning enough games against mediocre opposition.

Still in it right now (in my humble opinion) are the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Bengals (4-5). Everyone else has 6 losses, and while the Steelers have the talent, they have to virtually run the table to get in, and that's going to be quite the challenge. I'll stick them back on here later in necessary.

Okay, strength of schedule analysis...

Indianapolis - at Dallas, vs Philadelphia, at Tennessee, at Jacksonville, vs Cincinnati, at Houston, vs Miami
Denver - vs San Diego, at Kansas City, vs Seattle, at San Diego, at Arizona, vs Cincinnati, vs San Francisco
Baltimore - vs Atlanta, vs Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati, at Kansas City, vs Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, vs Buffalo
New England - at Green Bay, vs Chicago, vs Detroit, at Miami, vs Houston, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee
San Diego - at Denver, vs Oakland, at Buffalo, vs Denver, vs Kansas City, at Seattle, vs Arizona
NY Jets - vs Chicago, vs Houston, at Green Bay, vs Buffalo, at Minnesota, at Miami, vs Oakland

Jacksonville - vs NY Giants, at Buffalo, at Miami, vs Indianapolis, at Tennessee, vs New England, at Kansas City
Kansas City - vs Oakland, vs Denver, at Cleveland, vs Baltimore, at San Diego, at Oakland, vs Jacksonville
Cincinnati - at New Orleans, at Cleveland, vs Baltimore, vs Oakland, at Indianapolis, at Denver, vs Pittsburgh

So what does this mean? Well, for starters the Colts really have the #1 seed all locked up. Any moron can tell you that. Denver took care of business (barely) against the Raiders, but are starting a completely killer stretch that will define their season. Baltimore and New England should hang on, even if the Jets continue to improve... I just can't see the Jets taking the AFC East crown. Still, the Jets have a fairly easy road compared to the other teams, especially the Bengals, who end their season with three killer games. They almost have to run the table now to reach those with an 8-5 record.

Who knows what the Jaguars are going to do week to week? They simply can't afford to continue giving these games away? It's nuts!

My predictions continue to hold steady though... we'll see what happens when Denver hits this run of bad games. If they move through easily, I'm a moron. If they don't, I'll be the only pundit to pick the collapse. Go Gavin!

I have to jump into a seminar and so have to wait to do the NFC until later, so everyone can look forward to that.

Some Quick Thoughts...

2006-11-14T11:49:00.000-08:00

Thanks to Colin for actually writing a game recap for once in his miserable existence. I would only add, from being at the game, a few thoughts...

- Kaz pulled a Jerome Bettis by running onto the field in front of the rest of the Rams by fifteen yards. Then fans who weren't at the game wonder why we rag on him now. This would be because 1) he was perhaps our least favorite Seahawk because 2) he was awful. The dude wants to be the center of attention as a Ram. This means I will yell phrases in his general direction that would make impressionable young children cry.

- The turning point of the game for the defense was the 2nd drive for the Rams, when the Hawks stopped them on 2nd and 1, and then stuffed Stephen Jackson on 3rd and 1. It got the ball back to our offense quickly and returned momentum to our side.

- Our offensive line's performance is probably going to be severely underrated because of the six sacks allowed. They were overall brilliant. It's not their fault Seneca Wallace doesn't know how to throw the ball away.

- Speaking of Mr. Wallace... he wasn't very good. His second half was beyond abysmal. Let's stop with the obscene praising. If Burleson doesn't run that ball back, we're talking about how Wallace took giant steps back in the second half to not allow our team the chance to come back against a terrible defense.

- The stadium was utter bedlam during and directly after that return. Bedlam.

- The defense came within a second of disrupting half of the plays on the Rams' final drive. They are finally starting to consistently bring pressure. I like it.

On to other teams...

- The Sonics are now 4-4. Seriously. You know what? I watched the game last night against New Jersey and enjoyed it. This will be a fun team to watch, with four legitimate 20 point scorers on the court in our starting rotation (Ridnour, Lewis, Allen, Wilcox). I think they'll repeat their success again this year. I really think this team can make some noise, and was remembering how excited I was for this season before that whole "Oklahoma City" thing. Maybe I'll start being more excited now.

- Speaking of excited, I did watch the UW Huskies men's basketball team last night, and can tell that they are young, judging from the turnovers, but supremely talented, judging from the three point record they set. My prediction is that Spencer Hawes is going to struggle, his footwork is good but could be better, and I think Artem Wallace is going to push him for playing time. However, Quincy Pondexter is a stud, and probably a one-and-done. He was the best player on the court last night. What's going to be so interesting is how we can dominate the glass this year, between Brockman, Hawes, Wallace, Pondexter, etc we have the ability to own the paint. Nicholls State simply could not drive the lane without fearing the result. This could easily be the most talented Husky team ever. Isn't that strange to say? Well... they're really really good.

- Richie Sexson is a darn good baseball player that one particular site is dramatically underrating. Yeesh. Yes, let's replace him with David Dellucci. That would be a wonderful move. For a far superior analysis, read LL or Dr. D.

Can't Sleep..... Stupid Hawks

2006-11-13T01:11:00.000-08:00

It's frigging 2AM here in Phoenix and I have to go to work tomorrow at 7:30.

On the other hand, the Seahawks pulled off an amazing win today that has kept me up all night.

You see, there is something a little special about being the underdog. We haven't had to experience it much the past couple of years, as we entered the top-tier of the NFC. Thus, we would be in these tight matchups in games that we were supposed to win. Detroit. The Rams. Oakland.

This was the second game this season that we were truly the underdog entering the game. No Hass, no Shaun, you still had Kaz on the other side giving the Rams our entire playbook and complaining about how the Seahawks didn't respect the Rams, which is entirely not true and idiotic, Chris Spencer was starting at center, Marcus Tubbs had just landed on IR...... woof.

You get the picture. This was not a healthy, elite team that prepared to play their main division rival on Sunday. A win would go a loooong way towards a win of the NFC West, while a loss would put them in a tie with the Rams. I had almost no hope for a victory as I sat down at the sports bar. Almost none. I wasn't even as excited as I normally am for a Rams game, due to the fact that I thought the Rams had all their weapons, while we obviously did not.

Our first drive looked extremely promising, as Mo Morris continued his solid performance on Monday night and Seneca promptly took us within the Rams 10 yard line. Glimmer of hope? Absolutely not. I could see Leonard Little (who hit and killed a human being while driving) coming around the outside clear as day. It was obvious Seneca didn't feel the heat, and I groaned as Tom Ashworth vainly chugged after the other Rams defensive end (who, by the way, is pretty doggone fast). 7-0 Rams. Just like that. If there was one aspect of gameplay that we couldn't, JUST COULDN'T afford, it was to give the Rams free points, and we had done it.

However, Wallace and Morris drove us down the field once again, finally tying the game on a TD pass to D-Jack. There was a faint glimmer of hope. Actually, that entire 1st half turned into a hope-a-rama, as Stevens finally caught a big ball and our defense actually looked like the 2005 version, bending but not allowing the Rams to get the necessary touchdown. We were actually winning at the half, 14-13.

There was good news and bad news to this half. The good news was, obviously, that we were ahead and that Wallace was playing well. The bad news was that I saw no way for us to play better with the talent we had on the field, and we were only winning by a single point. I told Gavin as much, only to have my thoughts dismissed as, "depressing."

I don't know what Seneca Wallace does during halftime, but he should switch up his routine, because he is just terrible in the second half, and he was again today, leading the offense to go all of 11 yards before the final posession, and only 40 yards total in the second half. That's pathetic, especially against a Rams defense that doesn't scare anyone. Seneca's lapse put the burden of this game on the defense, and they actually responded.

Well, I take that back. They responded, and a new friend responded. Scott Linehan. Personally, I had been under the impression that the Rams fired a maverick head coach who played by his own rules precisely because he lost several games shooting from the hip and predictably calling wacky plays. In the second half, it appeared as if the ghost of Mike Martz temporarily took over the body of Scott Linehan. Call #1: The Rams have a makable 48 yard field goal. Linehan declines, instead calling a deep ball that had a low probability of success and is intercepted. Call #2, which was just boneheaded: Jeff Wilkins is in the process of giving the Rams a 19-14 lead when Linehan challenges the previous play, that Kevin Curtis had caught the ball an additional seven yards down the field. "Fine," I think to myself. "It'll just be another easy attempt for Wilkins." Sure enough, the call is overturned, and the Rams face a fourth and 1. This leads us to stupid Call #3: An imcomplete pass to the tight end in the end zone. Let's break down just how stupid this was.

-- The Rams, to the best of my knowledge, have, at their disposal, Tory Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Stephen Jackson. Holt owns us, Bruce was owning us throughout the game, and Jackson is an elite running back. Basically, you have Options A, B, and C (in no particular order) staring you right in the face if you are Linehan. Heck, Option D can be a quarterback sneak with Bulger, who is a pretty strong guy himself.

-- The Rams had an entire challenge to come up with said play. Honestly, if Linehan wanted to go for it, he could have started planning the SECOND that he challenged the ruling on the field. He did not.

-- Instead, Linehan called Option E, a short pass to the fullback. He also didn't make that call until the offense was already huddled, meaning that the 12th Man (who can be a tad loud) was already in full throttle, and no one could hear, including said fullback. Thus, not only was it a stupid play-call, it was a horrible use of time management, an empty-headed display of not knowing where you are (in Qwest), and fittingly ended with an off-kilter pass in the end zone.

Just horrible, and opened the door for Seattle. Personally, I had been praying for a game-changing turnover, but Burleson's return worked just as well. That was insane. In. Sane. I have zero superlatives to write about how awesome that was. It was the first point all game that I actually thought we might pull it out. My feelings remained even as the Rams predictably drove down the field and scored. A few thoughts on that.

-- Our defense sucks playing a soft vanilla zone. That is all.

The penalties on Incognito seemed fair. He should have known that he would have gotten flagged for the shove, and then for the obvious hold. Our special teams then again showed up, as Scobey took the ball to midfield.

Two mintues later.... victory. Winning this game, without our stars, was one of the most exciting wins that I have experienced as a Hawks fan. I'm dead serious. We are well on our way to break the Super Bowl loser's curse. We now have a running game. We have a revitalized defense. We have our stars coming back. We now have the inside track on the #2 seed in the NFC (Gavin will write about this later this week).

What an awesome day. That is all. I'm going to bed.

Skip Bayless = Awesome

2006-11-11T09:29:00.000-08:00

Even though I still work at home for a couple of days a week, I have stopped watching ESPN at all during the afternoon, particularly that crap-fest "1st and 10", where Skip and Woody "debate" the top sports topics of the day.

However, I was just about to watch an episode of South Park I had recorded on the ol' DVR (which I praise the all-powerful Messiah for most days) when I saw two minutes of this tremendous show.

The question? Who has been the rookie of the year so far in the NFL?

Now, if you follow the game of football, there is only one right answer. I'll trust that our readers are smart enough to know this. (Hint: He plays wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints).

Woody Paige did, surprisingly, go with Colston, leaving the proverbial ball in Skip's court. He did not disappoint.

Skip immediately proclaimed that the rookie of the year so far in the NFL was New England running back Laurence Maroney. Now, that MIGHT be marginally arguable, but Skip wasn't finished. Oh no. He continued to say that, RIGHT NOW, Maroney was one of the top-5 running backs in the entire NFL.

Wow. Top 5 running back. In the entire NFL.

-- Larry Johnson
-- LT
-- Tiki Barber
-- Shaun Alexander
-- Stephen Jackson

That wasn't difficult. You could also argue for the inclusion of Edgerrin James (talent didn't disappear, blocking did), Frank Gore (I personally wouldn't, but his stats are nice this year), Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis (hello!), Warrick Dunn, Deuce McAllister, and Ronnie Brown (who just OWNED the Chicago Bears defense).

But Maroney plays for the Patriots, and, thus, is already super-duper-neato. Don't get me wrong. Maroney looks like the type of back who COULD, at some point, be a top-5 running back. He is not one at the moment. At the present time.

Needless to say, I watched the episode of South Park instead, where Stan's dad gets served.

The Scientific Method: Week 10

2006-11-10T10:29:00.000-08:00

Oh..... my....... science......

A huge hat-tip to South Park for a hugely entertaining couple of episodes, except, of course, for showing us Ms. (Mr.) Garrison having sex. That was terrible.

A huge hat-tip to Bill Simmons. It only took Brady throwing four interceptions against the Colts to make him realize that, yes, the Pats would miss Deion Branch.

Yes, this NFL season has turned predictably wacky, with the Lions and 49ers actually winning on probably the only week that I didn't pick either of them to win. Go me! What does week 10 have in store for us?

Sunday:
Baltimore at Tennessee
Baltimore is one of the toughest teams for me to root for in the league. I hate Brian Billick, I hate Richard Neuheisal with a passion for ruining the Dawgs, and I hate how everyone hypes love onto Ray Lewis after he was involved in another person's death. On the other hand, I'm a big fan of Jeff Fisher (who called Haynesworth his "defensive tackle"), Vince Young has his moments, and the Titans seem to be learning how to play the game of football. However, it is hard to imagine the Titans offense not giving away a couple of huge turnovers that allow that mediocre Ravens offense a couple of scores. By the way, I love how everyone is talking about how the Ravens are 2-0 since Billick took over the play-calling. Did the offense win the game for them last week? Negatory.
Scientific Pick: Baltimore

Buffalo at Indianapolis
Willis McGahee is out, meaning that the Buffalo offense will go completely through one JP Losman, which should scare people from northern New York. Indy still has a ridiculous offense and a ridiculously bad rushing defense, and I know (I KNOW) that they will not end the season undefeated. However, unless someone can tell me how the Bills would score more points then the Colts (outside of Peyton pulling a Grossman and tossing 4-5 interceptions), I just can't do it.
Scientific Pick: Indy

Cleveland at Atlanta
Hmmmm. As always, this game hinges on one Michael Vick. Super in some games, absolutely terrible in others, Vick is, and always will be, an enigma. Who I am starting in fantasy football this week. Actually, not many people are talking about this, but the Falcons fast start was also buoyed by a fantastic performance by that defense, which has become rather invisible in recent weeks. Cleveland, by the way, has started playing folks tough, including San Diego last week until a final push by LT took away all hope. I am seriously tempted to do something stupid.
Scientific Pick: Cleveland

Green Bay at Minnesota
I finally put my trust in Brett Favre, and he reverts to last season. I finally put my trust in Brad Johnson, and he remembers that he is 68 years old. This is ridiculous. However, the one side of the football FOR EITHER TEAM that looks potentially elite is the Minny defense, who should easily get a few picks tossed their way by Favre, while Chester Taylor continues his strong play. Yes, the Vikings climb back above .500.
Scientific Pick: Minnesota

Houston at Jacksonville
Honestly, I don't understand the quarterback controversy in Jacksonville. In my opinion, NEITHER quarterback appears to be all-world, but Leftwich has the upside in talent and zip on the football. However, Garrard has that "escapability" and "desire to win" that I'm always hearing about. Maybe, um, Jacksonville won those last two games because of DOMINANT performances by that defense, eh? I should know. My fantasy team has enjoyed it. As for you, Houston, that was a winnable game that you let slip away in New York last week. You hold the Giants to 14 points, you should get a win. Easy.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville

Kansas City at Miami
Miami won on Sunday because of three reasons, which I will list in ascending order....
3. Jascon Taylor was a monster
2. Ronnie Brown was a monster
1. Rex Grossman decided that a perfect season wasn't for him

Do not tell me that Joey Harrington won that game for them, or even that the Miami performance is repeatable. You know what's repeatable? Larry Johnson running for 150 yards like every week the past four weeks, making the job of Damon Huard super duper easy because he knows he has single-coverage on a Tony Gonzalez or an Eddie Kennison. That KC offense is in sync right now, and should continue to be through Sunday.
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

NY Jets at New England
Bill Simmons is picking the Jets to win, just like he did earlier in the season when the Pats visited the Jets. The Jets played the Pats tough, but once again, I can't see the talent differential playing out any different way. The Pats will run all over the Jets, and the Jets won't be able to run. That's all the difference. Oh, and by the way. Thank you, New England, for Deion Branch. Thank you. Have fun with Reche Caldwell. Did you see Brady on Sunday night? Every pass was going to Kevin Faulk or Ben Watson. The wide receiving corps was almost nonexistant, especially in clutch-time.
Scientific Pick: New England

San Diego at Cincinnati
If there is one team that has been killing my picks on a weekly basis, it has been the Bengals, a team that I honestly thought would challenge for the Super Bowl. Instead, they are on the brink of imploding. Now, we said the exact same thing about the Giants earlier in the season, but the Bengals have a few more turds than the G-Men. And what's the Bengals main weakness? Defending the run. Hmmmm. What's the huge strength of the Chargers? Running the football. I expect to see a very similar game to the one between the Pats and Bengals earlier in the season.
Scientific Pick: San Diego

San Francisco at Detroit
Ha! I HAVE to pick one of them to win this week. God has forced my hand, telling me that it was foolish to disregard both of them last week. I am a foolish mortal, indeed. Should I go with the team that scored 9 points to beat the Vikings last week? Should I go with, in the words of Roy Williams, the best 2-6 team of all time? Decisions, decisions. Well, shee-oot. When in doubt, go with the veteran quarterback over the up-and-comer, which means that I am sticking with Kitna, a revitalized Keven Jones, and that awe-inspiring (yes, sarcasm) Detroit defense.
Scientific Pick: Detroit

Washington at Philadelphia
Washington should have lost that game to Dallas in about fifteen different places last week, highlighted by T.O.'s dropped pass and the blocked field goal by Vanderjagt. Philly has lost a few of those sort of games this season, highlighted by Eli Manning's comeback and the 62 yard field goal by Matt Bryant in Tampa Bay. Basically, what I'm trying to say is that one of these teams should be 2-6, while the other team should be 6-2. Which team do you think I will be picking to win?
Scientific Pick: Philly

Denver at Oakland
There is nothing more to write about how bad the Oakland offense is. Their ineptitude rivals my love of all things war-related. Art Shell has responded by saying that they will be working on becoming more balanced. That's an excellent decision. Spread out the suckitude, Art, letting it seep through all facets of the team. Oh, and don't forget to have someone attempt to knee Javon Walker in the nads, ok? Personally, I didn't mind Brayton doing that, mostly because the recipient was Jerramy Stevens, who lost his nads a loooooooong time ago.
Scientific Pick: Denver

Dallas at Arizona
Tony Romo hasn't looked that bad the last two weeks, leading the Boys to a nice win over the Panthers and a should-of win (though they lost) over the Redskins. Arizona, on the other hand, has looked terrible after that loss on Monday night. It's like the entire team, especially the offense, just laid down and said, "We know who we thought we were. We're the Arizona Cardinals." Matt Leinart, in particular, has just looked awful, though having no running game hasn't helped. Just wondering. You have, on the same team, Matt Leinart, Edgerrin James, Anquan Boldin, Bryant Johnston, Leonard Pope, etc. How does this offense not score points?
Scientific Pick: Dallas

New Orleans at Pittsburgh
Big Ben threw for over 400 yards last week. That's right. 400 yards. The Steelers should have whupped the Broncos last Sunday, just as they should have whupped the Raiders, and the Falcons, and so forth. Willie Parker finally called the team out, saying that they just didn't care because they had their rings. I agree. I mean, how do you even WEAR those rings when you start the next season 2-6? What are you, a champion? Are you kidding me? Here's a prediction, and take it how you will. The Pittsburgh Steelers aren't just going to win on Sunday. No, the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to destroy the New Orleans Saints.
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

St. Louis at Seattle
A win here would basically cement the NFC West for Seattle. In theory. Unfortunately, you know the Rams will score points, since Tory Holt owns us, Isaac Bruce owns, us, Marc Bulger owns us, etc., etc. On the flip side, Mo Morris owns no one, Seneca Wallace ditto, and Tom Ashworth ditto. This would actually be an upset win for the Seahawks, winning this game without several of their best players. Couple that with the fact that I'm a wuss, but I really don't see how we win this game on Sunday.
Scientific Pick: St. Louis

Chicago at NY Giants
What a great game. This is what NBC wanted when it got the optional games in the second half of the season. Otherwise you might be stuck with Washington/Philly, or Cleveland/Atlanta. A couple keys here. First, the Giants are missing their pass rush, which is what rattles Rex Grossman and turns him into a turnover machine. That will hurt. Second, Brian Urlacher won't be playing at 100%, and Tiki Barber should be able to exploit what Ronnie Brown did the week before. However, if there is one thing that the Bears are great at, it's creating turnovers, and Eli Manning loves to oblige. In my mind, that's the difference in the game. Right there.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Monday:
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Buh. Which game is better, Sunday or Monday night? Not going to waste my time here.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Hawks at the Halfway Point

2006-11-09T16:25:00.000-08:00

I wanted to take some time to correct a wrong assumption about why our beloved Seahawks are 5-3. Most people blame the departure of Steve Hutchinson and the other offensive injuries (Hasselbeck, Alexander, Engram). They look at the offensive dropoff from the juggernaut of a year ago and throw up a "of course" at the team.

"Of course", they're wrong. Don't misunderstand, the offense hasn't been good. However, it's virtually impossible to put together a decent statistical analysis of their efforts. It's been like a season of one-game sample sizes, what with all those injuries. When we get to the end of the season and look back, who's going to care about our overall ranking? I sure hope the answer is no one, because we're going to be a heck of a lot better than currently constituted with the NFL MVP and best QB in the NFC.

No, my friends, the reason we are 5-3 is because of a wildly inconsistent defense. The easiest way to see this is simply taking a look at the scoreboard. We held the Lions to 6 points, the Cardinals to 10 points, the Giants to 3 through three quarters, and shut out the Raiders. You could even argue they were the biggest reason for the defeat of the Rams in the second half of that one. When we lost they got dominated, giving up 37, 31, and 35 points respectively.

The question begs some similarities between our defense and Rex Grossman. You put the season together and it looks mediocre, but that's a lousy analysis. Either you've been great, or terrible beyond belief.

So, are there threads between the wins and losses that can be tied together? Are there further discrepancies?

Of course, there are the big plays. We've gone over these before, but it's worth mentioning again. The ONLY reason Minnesota beat us was because we could not contain the big play against a mediocre offense.

Next up are third down conversions. Chicago (6-15), Minnesota (5-14), and Kansas City (6-13). That's actually not too bad, although (and I can't find the appropriate data) I know we've given up far more than our share of third and longs. In our wins Detroit (5-14), Arizona (6-14), NY Giants (2-9), St Louis (8-15), and Oakland (3-15) all (except Oakland, of course) had similar success on the down, and the Rams were almost dominant (not a good sign for Sunday). I'm actually moderately surprised by this, as I thought we'd done a lot better during our wins. Overall, we give up 37.6% of third down opportunities, obviously very very bad (although not as bad as the Rams, who are at 47.2%). To be where we thought we'd be, that number has to be closer to 30%.

How can we improve this? Well, it should definitely start by stopping other team's third WRs and TEs. We are allowing an absurd 56.0% DVOA for third, fourth, and fifth options for opposing teams. To understand how bad that is, 2005 Steve Smith, tops in DVOA, was at 30.7%. Seriously. TEs are at a bad 25.6%, pretty much equal to 2005 Santana Moss.

So besides facing #1 and #2 WRs (and we aren't great in those categories), we're also facing Steve Smith and Santana Moss... EVERY WEEK. Unbelievable. Many of those catches are on third down.

There are good signs. We're still good against the run, ranking #5 in STUFFED, with a nice 31% percentage (better than San Diego, for example). Our big play tendencies bite us here, as we rank 31st in 10+ runs, as an absurd 24% of runs against us go for 10 of more yards. That should be something we can quickly address and goes to the lack of consistency and overpursuit from our aggressive linebacking corps.

We're also not bad at rushing the passer (although those numbers are padded with the St Louis and Oakland affairs), sacking at an adjusted 8.6%.

We can do this. We have the talent to be a good defense. It always starts with stopping the run, and we stop the run well. We just have to add discipline to the mix that we had last year to cut down on third down completions and role player susceptibility.

I started this post with the intent to see if we really are a bad defense. I think the answer is a qualified "no". The peripherals are there for success. It comes down to execution.

NFL Midseason Report: A Look Ahead

2006-11-09T14:23:00.000-08:00

I thought I'd take a second to go through the games I'm most looking forward to as the season winds down... while I'm no John Clayton (far sexier man than myself), we're starting to enter the games that truly matter.

Week 10
San Diego at Cincinnati - If the Bengals lose, put a fork into them.
Washington at Philadelphia - The loser of this game is done.
Chicago at NY Giants - Ummm... need any explanation?

Week 11
Chicago at NY Jets - I'm making the pick now... Jets win this one.
Atlanta at Baltimore - Two totally overrated teams need this game for playoff positioning.
St Louis at Carolina - If the unthinkable happens and we lose, do we become Carolina fans here or simply enjoy the continued falloff of everyone's preseason Super Bowl pick?
Indianapolis at Dallas - Making the pick again. Indy will be 8-1.
San Diego at Denver - Front runner in the AFC West.
NY Giants at Jacksonville - What an end to an incredible week. If the Giants lose this past Sunday, this game takes on gigantic proportions.

Week 12
Denver at Kansas City - How would you like to be a Denver fan and go from San Diego to Kansas City to Seattle (with healthy offensive players) in three weeks? That's how a 6-2 record can quickly end up 6-5.
New Orleans at Atlanta - The NFC South will get messy after this game and the Saints' loss.
Chicago at New England - The Bears will be the next team to beat New England at Foxboro and avoid a four game losing streak.

Week 13
Baltimore at Cincinnati - If my prediction is right about the Bengals (and Lord knows that hasn't been the case up to now), this game will put Cincy back into the top of the AFC North.
Arizona at St Louis - The Rams will blow this one.
Dallas at NY Giants - The top two teams in the NFC East face off for the crown.
Carolina at Philadelphia - If Carolina loses, they will be out of the postseason.

Week 14
New Orleans at Dallas - The fall of the Saints will continue as pundits scramble to claim that they predicted that the Saints really weren't that good.
Baltimore at Kansas City - The Chiefs cement their status as a legit playoff contender as Arrowhead strikes again.
New England at Miami - Remember how Tom Brady always sucks in this game?
Indianapolis at Jacksonville - Only putting this there because people think it'll be good and meaningful... but they'd be wrong.
NY Giants at Carolina - Notice how the Giants and Panthers are on this list a lot?
Denver at San Diego - Final game for AFC West domination (unless Chiefs steal it)

Week 15
Kansas City at San Diego - Must win on the road for the Chiefs as they seek not to be Team #7 for the second year in a row.
Cincinnati at Indianapolis - Only other good game in an otherwise forgettable week.

Week 16
Honestly, outside of our game against San Diego, not seeing many games I'm looking forward to.

Week 17
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati - I think it may come down to this game for the Bengals to take the AFC North.
Green Bay at Chicago - I also think this will be a big game for playoff seeding.
Jacksonville at Kansas City - See below
Carolina at New Orleans - See below

How does the playoff picture itself stand right now?

AFC
1. Indianapolis: 8-0
2. Denver: 6-2 (over Baltimore because of better conference record)
3. Baltimore: 6-2 (over New England because of better conference record)
4. New England: 6-2
5. San Diego: 6-2
6. Jacksonville: 5-3 (over Kansas City because of better conference record)

First Round: Jacksonville at Baltimore; San Diego at New England

Teams Still In It: Obviously many from a mathematical perspective, but we'll stick with the following: Cincinnati and Kansas City.

Check out that game the last week of the season as Jacksonville goes to Kansas City. Looms large right now, doesn't it?

Taking a look at the schedules (we'll post these as they shorten), here's what I see...

Indy has a fairly easy road, and should easily clinch the #1 seed in the conference, especially with the killer schedules that the remainder of the contenders have.
Denver only has three "gimmes" left on the schedule, including this stretch of games: vs San Diego, at Kansas City, vs Seattle, at San Diego. It's difficult to see them holding on to the #2 seed during that stretch, leaving the door open for New England, who should easily cruise to another 6-2 run and grab that #2 ranking.
Baltimore's road depends on offensive consistency and whether the Pittsburgh Steelers give up, they play the defending champs twice.
If not, Cincinnati could jump in, but I now have to already go back on my prediction of above. The Bengals have a killer second half schedule, including games against San Diego, New Orleans, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Denver, and Pittsburgh. That's six of their eight games that could easily be losses. I don't see them getting through that well.
That leaves us with the two other AFC West teams, San Diego and Kansas City. Of the two, Kansas City has the far easier road, with two games still against Oakland, as well as "showdowns" with Cleveland and Miami. They do have tilts with San Diego and Denver, but not two, and neither Jacksonville or Baltimore are "elite" teams. When you compare that with San Diego's two games with Denver, at Seattle, at Cincinnati, and against Kansas City, the Chiefs hold an obvious edge.

So here's the prediction right now...

1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. Baltimore
4. Kansas City
5. Jacksonville
6. San Diego

NFC
1. Chicago: 7-1
2. NY Giants: 6-2 (over New Orleans through better divisional record)
3. New Orleans: 6-2
4. Seattle: 5-3
5. Atlanta: 5-3
6. Minnesota: 4-4

The sixth spot is complex right now. First, Philadelphia and Dallas are tied in the NFC East with 4-4 records. Only one of those teams is wild-card eligible, according to tiebreaker policy. Because Philadelphia beat Dallas, they go on to a tiebreaker with Minnesota, Carolina, and St Louis. Minnesota has the best conference record (4-2) versus Philadelphia (3-3), Carolina (2-3), and St Louis (3-2), so they get the nod. So right now at the midway point the Carolina Panthers are out of the playoffs. Wierd.

With the absurd number of 4-4 teams still "alive", I'm not going to go through strength of schedule for all of them, except Carolina, Philly, Dallas, and Minnesota.

Chicago - Starting a tough run of four games, but end up with four snoozers. I don't see them losing the top spot unless Seattle really makes a run.
NY Giants - Yikes. As with any NFC East and NFC South team, the strength of schedule is going to make for some killer losing streaks, and with the injuries on defense, it's difficult to see the Giants maintaining their current momentum, although I do think they're going to win this Sunday. They end the season vs Dallas, at Carolina, vs Philadelphia, vs New Orleans, at Washington. The good news for them? The worst games are at home.
Seattle - After we get Shaun and Matt back after this St Louis game, the only games to be concerned with are at Denver, vs San Diego. Niiiice. Look for us to get that #2 slot.
New Orleans - Ummm... I have bad news for Saints fans. Your team is not making the playoffs, barring a total collapse in Atlanta and Carolina. Besides a game against San Francisco, you have at Pittsburgh, vs Cincinnati, at Atlanta, at Dallas, vs Washington, at NY Giants, vs Carolina. The only consolation is that your division opponents will have the same problems, but don't expect to hold the #3 ranking.
Atlanta - I hate to do this, and maybe I'll change my mind when I see Carolina's schedule, but I think Atlanta has to be the favorite in the AFC South. The schedule is just in their favor. The current run of vs Cleveland, at Baltimore, vs New Orleans, at Washington and at Tampa Bay gives them a huge lift.
Minnesota - The good news? An incredibly favorable schedule. The bad news? Playing like how they did against New England and San Francisco. They'll definitely be in it until the end.
Philadelphia - No way. No way. They end at Indianapolis, vs Carolina, at Washington, at NY Giants, at Dallas, vs Atlanta. No way.
Dallas - For an NFC East team, actually a lot of winnable games. I think they have the leg up, not to mention the better team.
Carolina - It's going to come down to the last two weeks, at Atlanta and at New Orleans. They will be in the playoff hunt if they sweep, eliminated if they don't.

Here's how it looks then, campers...

1. Chicago
2. Seattle
3. Atlanta
4. NY Giants
5. Dallas
6. Carolina

Again, my apologies to Saints fans. That schedule, however...
For any Vikings fans, it would reasonable to be upset with me, but quit losing to the 49ers.

Land O' Conclusions: Midseason report

2006-11-08T14:54:00.000-08:00

Disclaimer: This is actually Colin's thoughts, so get mad at him if you disagree with it. If, as is true for many of you, you're totally ambivalent about pure speculation like the crap below, than comment about Borat, or about how Round Table pizza tastes like cardboard.

AFC

No F’ing Way
Oakland Raiders
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
Miami Dolphins

I want to get this out of the way upfront. The AFC is not a superior conference than the NFC. Instead, what has happened is that the AFC has two large groups. One group consists of teams that are all very good. The other group consists of teams that are all very bad. Very good…. very bad. The NFC, on the other hand, has a few good teams and then an absolute plethora of mediocre teams that can play EITHER good or bad depending on the week. There is no large group in either the top or bottom tier. That means that the playoff picture is a lot more interesting in the NFC, while the AFC simply has a larger group of better teams.

As for this category, the picks should seem obvious as we hit the halfway point, but here are some conclusions…..

Oakland, without a doubt, is the worst team in the NFL. As a Hawks fan, I almost can’t give the defense much credit about that shutout, because any semi-quality defense would have been able to shut out that horrific Raiders offense. Art Shell can’t coach, that offensive line is worse than Arizona (which is REALLY saying something), and they are wasting what is a pretty good defense.

The Dolphins, outside of Pittsburgh, are the single most disappointing team in the NFL, even after their amazing win at Chicago. They have also had offensive line troubles, and stupidly disregarded Drew Brees this offseason, settling on Daunte Culpepper, who didn’t look healthy at all. Joey Harrington has looked healthy, which is also not good. The one large bright spot is the potential superstar-dom of Ronnie Brown, who looks awesome even running behind that offensive line.

The other team with a bright spot on this list is Tennessee, who had a fantastic win on the road against Washington. Vince Young looks like he might actually turn into a decent NFL quarterback, they have a solid running game, and they just need a defense worth a darn. Actually, I could substitute Houston in this paragraph as well.

Only One Pig
Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills
NY Jets

Wow. Here is the conclusion to get off the Pittsburgh Steelers. They will be a championship contender come next season. Honestly, there is no reason for them not being a championship contender this season, besides the fact that Big Ben has had one of the worst years possible for a sports athlete. Willie Parker has been better than expected, the defense is still solid, the special teams will be solid once Cowher stops Santonio Holmes from returning punts….. they are WAY too talented to be considered a team on the decline. Now, if they continue to fail next year, then call me. Oh, and, yes, I am enjoying their horrific season very much as a Hawks fan. I’m a terrible person (a warmongerer, some might say).

The Jets have been a pleasant surprise, and my overall conclusion on them at the halfway point is that they might be the Miami Dolphins of next year. Not in a championship sense, hopefully (they still need a much better rushing attack), but a solid playoff contender that could possibly unseat the Patriots. Mangini has been spectacular, Pennington has been solid, and the defense has turned it around for the most part.

Possible Playoff Teams
Kansas City Chiefs
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers

The Cincy Bengals are learning that an overabundance of turds hurts if you start losing games. Honestly, they are falling apart, though my overall conclusion on them is that this is still a team that could challenge for the Super Bowl. I have no idea what has happened to that offense, but you still have Carson Palmer (even not at 100%), Rudi Johnson, a decent offensive line, and a bunch of awesome wide receivers. That should be more than enough to score points. The defense has been about as advertised, with an abysmal record against the run and a bunch of turnovers out of the secondary. They could very easily still win the AFC North.

On the flip side, the Baltimore Ravens are doing this in ways that are not repeatable. They are the Chicago Bears of last year. If they make the postseason, they are one and done. Same with Jacksonville, even with David Garrard, as they do not have the horses to handle the top teams in the conference.

Two teams that might, with a lucky bounce come their way, is either the Chiefs or Chargers. Larry Johnson has looked spectacular the last four weeks. Ditto Damon Huard (never thought I would write that), and the defense has been just good enough, which is all that is asked of them. The Chargers are about the same team, with a tad overrated defense led by steroid-master Shawn Merriman.

Championship Contenders
Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots

Any of these teams could make it to Miami. I don’t believe it will BE New England, mostly because of the simple fact that they looked like the inferior team against both Indy and Denver (both of those losses came AT New England) and Brady doesn’t have a true go-to guy yet. That could change if his chemistry with Gabriel improves, but it’s not there yet. Oh, and that injury to Rodney Harrison hurts.

That leaves Indy and Denver. It’s very hard for me to include either of these teams. Denver’s offense has JUST started to get into gear after sucking for a large part of this season. Indy’s defense has JUST started to get into gear, though it is still atrocious against the run (Bob Sanders will help). Still, Peyton Manning has once again looked dominant, and Javon Walker has been a special addition in Denver. This race should be fun to watch for the next eight weeks.

My halfway pick for the Super Bowl: Indianapolis (boring, I know)

NFC
No F’ing Way
Arizona Cardinals
Detroit Lions
Tampa Bay Bucs

As I stated earlier, there are not many teams who are truly out of the playoff picture in the NFC. While you will need at least 10 wins (if not 11) to qualify in the AFC, you might only need 9 in the NFC. Still, no way for these three teams. I am very disappointed in Arizona, particularly, and hope that Denny Green is on his way out. The Cards, basically, are NOT who we THOUGHT they were. I like the decision, thus, to groom Matt Leinart, making NEXT season a possible playoff berth (of course, if that O-Line doesn’t improve, forget anything I said). Honestly, this season above many that I can remember has cemented the importance of a good offensive line. Look at problems with Oakland. Arizona. Houston. Seattle. Look at the help in Minnesota. The Jets. San Francisco.

The Bucs have had a run of bad luck, and the Lions are entirely too inconsistent to win more than 6-7.

Only One Pig
San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers
Washington Redskins

I could very easily have put both the Packers and the 49ers in the above category, but both of those teams have been better than I expected. The 49ers rushing attack is here to stay, which really helps the ongoing education of Alex Smith. No, I don’t think Smith is “there” yet (whatever that means), but he is improving, which is what you want to see from your former #1 pick. The defense is still full of unproven talent, and the Niners still need a large influx of additional talent, but they are climbing back into semi-respectability.
Four weeks ago I had to make a decision about which of the four teams in the NFC East had no chance to make the postseason. I chose the NY Giants based off of their horrific performance in Seattle. My second choice would have been the Washington Redskins. Well, now it is the Washington Redskins, who needed a luck block to beat the Cowboys (man, are the Cowboys just in the habit nowadays of crushing losses?) to reach a 3-5 record. My main conclusion on them? That defense, which really carried them to the postseason last year, has been pretty doggone bad this year. Mike Rumph? Adam Archuleta? Man, that secondary has looked atrocious at times. The high-priced free agents have been virtually invisible, including Randle-El, outside of one punt return against the Colts. We might be seeing the ‘Skins on a downslope once again.

Possible Playoff Teams
Seattle Seahawks
St. Louis Rams
Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys

This is mediocrity, folks. The place where a TON of teams are 4-4, including the Rams, Vikings, Panthers, Eagles, and Cowboys. Again, there can be only six, which means only four teams from this list. YOU pick you those four might be, I don’t know.

Well, I do know that the Hawks will be one of them. I don’t say that from a homer bias, but they are a better team than the Rams, and that’s all that matters. I don’t consider them a championship contender right now due to that defense (and no, shutting out the Raiders doesn’t count), and that rushing attack needs to become more consistent as well. Right now? Second round NFC playoff loss, in my opinion.

The Carolina Panthers are another team that looks a tad off. Maybe teams are beginning to figure out how they work with Steve Smith. Maybe DeShaun Foster sucks (you think?). Maybe that defense was overrated. Whatever the reason, they remain one team that I would not want to play come playoff time.

The New Orleans Saints are a terrific story, and they probably will make the postseason (though they have a really hard second half of the season, playing Pittsburgh, Cincy, the Giants, Dallas, Washington, Carolina, and Atlanta). However, that defense is not championship-worthy, and Colston, while a great story, is very unproven under the lights. I can’t value them as a true contender yet. Now, if they slice through that above schedule…..

Teams that I consider out include the St. Louis Rams, with that “revamped” (snicker) defense, the Minnesota Vikings, with that “revamped” (snicker) offense, and the Atlanta Falcons, with that “revamped” (snicker) quarterback. Those three teams are entirely too inconsistent to reach the postseason.

My guess, out of these teams? Seattle, Dallas, Carolina, New Orleans

Championship Contenders
Chicago Bears
NY Giants

Yes, Rex Grossman has looked terrible two out of the last three weeks. He has also looked dominant for the other six weeks, and that has to count for something here at the halfway point. Oh, and that defense looks pretty much awesome as well. One bad loss doesn’t shove them out of the top spot in the NFC.

As for the Giants, what has impressed me has been the improved defensive performance. You knew that they could score, and they have, very consistently (except, weirdly, against Houston). But that secondary has clamped down, and the pass rush has really stepped up. It will be interesting to see how that pass rush fares without Strahan and Umeniorya (however you spell it).

My halfway pick for the Super Bowl? Chicago (gotta keep it there until further notice)

Ultimate Explosion!! - Week Nine

2006-11-08T13:45:00.000-08:00

Well, since Colin isn't going to do this, I thought I'd toss out a few thoughts on the Monday Night debacle (and I definitely do want to use that word, even if it was a victory).

1. Oakland is an awful, awful team.
2. We easily could have lost that game.

People talk about how great Seneca Wallace played, and yes, he wasn't a total statue in the pocket, as evidenced by the one very nice scramble, but...

Seneca Wallace: 18/30, 176 yards
Andrew Walter: 16/35, 166 yards

Exactly how much more impressive was Mr. Wallace?

LaMont Jordan had 63 yards on only 9 carries (although one was a 32 yard jaunt... more on that in a second). Take the long one out and what do you get? 8 for 31, or a nice four yard per carry average. If the Raiders had actually committed to the run, they were moving the ball effectively against our defense. Instead, they kept throwing the football in driving rain and wind, which didn't make any sense whatsoever.

Good news for our defense? Holding the Raiders to a nice 3-15 third down conversion percentage. Bad news? There were some wide open receivers on those plays.

There were four "turning point" plays in the game, from my count.

1. Jerramy Stevens dropping the sure touchdown. He catches it, and the game is never in doubt.
2. Oakland not going for it on 4th and 1 in the 2nd quarter from our 49 yard line. That happened after Randy Moss caught a 11 yard pass on 3rd and 12, which again happened on bad third down pass defense. The Raiders needed the momentum.
3. At the 14:23 mark of the 4th quarter, Andrew Walter missed two wide open receivers for a sure touchdown. One was Courtney Anderson down the middle, another was down the sideline. Our safety (not sure who it was) had to decide between the two and so wasn't covering either. Walter just threw a terrible ball.
4. Grant Wistrom's sack on 1st and 10 at the 13:36 mark on the same drive after Oakland had converted a 4th down try.

The point is, when you're only up 13-0, it is still a two possession game TO LOSE. Not putting away the Raiders, with multiple drives starting with terrific field position, was ridiculous. Another game with 10 penalties was ridiculous (what the heck was Tom Ashworth thinking most of the game?).

Oh yeah, the offensive line. Floyd Womack got abused multiple times by Warren Sapp. I found myself wishing for Rob Sims. That's probably not a good sign.

Our defense gave up ANOTHER huge run from inside the opponent's 10 yard line. That is simply inexcusable. If Jordan Babineaux had missed the tackle like he was trying, it was another touchdown, and my life would have grown a little darker.

You can probably tell that I was completely unimpressed by this shutout win. You would be correct. However, I am still moderately optimistic about our chances on Sunday, of course more on that later. Basically, I'm not that afraid of the Rams, no matter how full of Christian fear that offense makes me.

As for the rest of the NFL, Colin has a post on that coming out later. Look forward to that.

So... how about the Scientific Method? A mediocre 7-7 outing, putting the standings as follows...

Scientific Method: 7-7
Petey Prisco: 9-5
Bill Simmons: 6-8

Season Standings:
Petey Prisco: 83-45
Scientific Method: 79-49
Bill Simmons: 66-62

Ouch, Science. Pick up the pace, huh?

The Scientific Method, Week Nine

2006-11-03T15:07:00.000-08:00

I step outside for a week (a week, mind you), and discover that Nate is posting huge-ass posts about democracy (which just plain doesn't work), Timothy McGavick (bless his little conservative soul) posts a comment on a blog, proving once and for all that the Internet allows idiots a soapbox (in this case, the idiot was Nate), Gavin actually decides to write about the Oklahoma City Sonics losing (shocker!) to the Blazers because of no attempt at defense (uber-shocker!), and, in the final stunner, we learn that Japanese pitchers who have Cy Young capabilities can piss off rich Japenese businessmen and, once again, prove that the Seattle Mariners are the Baltimore Orioles West.

As for me, the highlight of my week was being able to skip part of my communication seminar yesterday afternoon and trek over to Hayden Library for a glimpse at former president Bill Clinton as he spoke at a Democratic "Get Out the Vote" presentation of awesomeness. As one of the few non-Democrats there (as Dr. Detecto pointed out, my political beliefs are in line with the stormtroopers, where we would have a dictatorial figure at the top who can simply crush Kim Jong-Il WITH HIS MIND!! He could build a fence at the border..... WITH HIS MIND...... and Ewok slaves, of course!!) I was proud to see a glimpse of how our current democratic system operates.

First, some doughy-white guy gets up and proclaims, "Look around you. Here is the TRUE America!" I did look around, and to my everlasting shock (this being Arizona State University), I found myself surrounded by rich white people. Unfortunately, I found myself thus agreeing with Mr. Doughy.

I then get to hear from three possible democratic candidates to the Arizona state legislature. According to them (so this might be slightly biased), the Democrats stand for higher education, whereas the Republicans stand for a theocracy-education based on a mixture of fear, Christianity, and voo-doo. I never knew that. Since it was already a half-hour from when Billy-Boy was supposed to arrive, the last candidate shouts out, "So.... here's the man you've all been waiting for!" The crowd "erupts" (more on thsi later) for about thirty seconds until it becomes apparent that no one is coming up to the stage. The three Democratic candidates are up there clapping to some stupid song, and finally Mr. Doughy comes back up and says that Billy will still be a little while.... but he is IN THE PHOENIX AREA!!!

As we wait, I am astounded to hear from my Democratic women friends around me that basically all of them have fantasized having sex with Bill Clinton. I tell them that I, on the other hand, have fantasized about having sex with Hillary Clinton. They don't believe me, mostly because I'm lying. I then inquire as to whether they would be concerned about the various, um, dangers associated from canoodling with the Bill-ster. To them, the thrill would simply overwhelm their fear. Once again, I rethink my decision to choose academia as a career.

A couple Republicans show up waving a huge sign for the Republican HOF candidate. Of course, boos shower down, various well-mannered individuals attempt to rip the sign down, and maturity reigns.

It's been an hour. Finally the big boys arrive. Jim Pederson (wants to be a Senator). Harry Mitchell (wants to be taller than 5'2"), and Bill Clinton. Some Hispanic democratic candidate who wants to be a state official claims that we should vote for him because of what happened in Florida, or, as he likes to call it (not kidding, this is seriously what he said), Flori-duh. My hope for humanity sinks to an all-time low. Meanwhile the crowd got loud for, again, about thity seconds before sinking back into an expectant murmur. I've seen more intense crowds at a Promise Keepers convention.

Pederson proclaims that we are the good guys in the fight against evil. Harry Mitchell boldly tells us that he is for change (which is great, because a Pepsi at the vending machine costs $1.25 now, and I'm out of quarters), and, finally, Clinton steps up to the podium. He begins (not joking here) with a come-on to the entire female student body, talking about how he looks out and desperately wants to be 20 years old again. Aaaaah. I've missed him. Suddenly one of the women I'm with gets a phone call. It's our instructor, who wants us back since this has taken an hour more than we thought it would. So, unfortunately for all of you, that's pretty much all I heard from Clinton. Basically, the whole experience cemented in my mind why I'll never be huge into politics.

So there you have it. TWO political posts on this blog in a week. Sigh.

Speaking of sinking into the depths of depravity, Petey Prisco just passed the scientific method into first place for this season. I deeply apologize to everyone. I'll try to do my best this week.

Sunday:
Atlanta at Detroit
Can someone please tell me when Michael Vick had TWO great passing games in a row? Even though I doubt that can continue, I have also promised myself that I would stop picking Detroit for awhile. Watch Detroit beat Atlanta by 40.
Scientific Pick: Atlanta

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Baltimore's defense looked dominant again against New Orleans, but the offense needed that defense to get favorable field position. Cincy has lost consecutive games where they appeared to outplay their opponent both time (both home games, as well). I can't imagine Cincy losing this many in a row.
Scientific Pick: Cincy

Dallas at Washington
The Tony Romo experiment actually got off to a good start against Carolina, and the 'Skins have looked terrible on defense. Clinton Portis, though, is expected to play, and you have to think that Joe Gibbs has something left in the tank, or else this season is over.
Scientific Pick: Washington

Green Bay at Buffalo
Sssh. The Green Bay offense has been clicking recently, with Brett Favre actually throwing the ball with accuracy and Ahman Green, while not spectacular, providing a running game and holding onto the football. Buffalo, on the other hand, is Buffalo.
Scientific Pick: Green Bay

Houston at NY Giants
Houston's offense hasn't looked that bad recently, though I didn't understand the move for Rosenthals during the game last week. The Giants, however, have been playing outstanding football ever since we destroyed them. I expect that to continue.
Scientific Pick: NY Giants

Kansas City at St. Louis
Speaking of awesome, what about the Kansas City offense. Last week has been the proper sign of a slowly improving offense in every facet of the game. Larry Johnson has completely turned his season around. Tony Gonzalez has decided to be a factor again this season. And Damon Huard hasn't played like a Huard.
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

Miami at Chicago
Again, I'm not picking against Chicago for awhile here.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
The TB offense sputtered as the defense didn't give them big turnovers. Again, those two wins were propelled by a bogus call and a 62 yard field goal. Not that impressive. New Orleans was embarrassed, but they're still a better team than Tampa Bay.
Scientific Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee at Jacksonville
The Jags are a tough team to figure out sometimes, but that defense appears built to stop the up and coming Titans offense.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville

Minnesota at San Francisco
I appreciated New England embarrassing the Vikings last week to prove to them that they're actually not that good. As for San Fran, wow, you appeared to have no idea how to play the game of football last week.
Scientific Pick: Minny

Cleveland at San Diego
Another game that I hope I don't see any part of.
Scientific Pick: San Diego

Denver at Pittsburgh
Denver's defense got ripped last week, but it remains to be seen if Big Ben can actually play like an NFL quarterback this season. It is his fault and his along that they lost to the Raiders. Pittsburgh really has to win this, or else they are an abysmal 2-6.
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

Indy at New England
My favorite rivalry in the NFL. Peyton versus Belichick. Peyton won last year, but the Colts defense looks worse this year. Much worse. One additional question.... is that a mandate that this game must be played, every year, in New England?
Scientific Pick: New England

Monday:
Oakland at Seattle
The day that I pick us to lose to the Raiders is the day I become an Arizona Cardinals fan.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Same Ol' Sonics?

2006-11-02T12:50:00.000-08:00

I did manage to watch most of that game last night and had a few thoughts...

1. Whoever was the moron who chose the music for the Sonics to be introduced to deserves to be savagely beaten. I know it's the 40th season. That doesn't mean that our team should be trotted out to doo-wop. Johan Petro couldn't even do The Robot effectively to it. Every time music is played in the NBA, it should be something with a throbbing bass line that athletes can not smile to and look like thugs. This is the image. Except for Luuuuuuuuuke Ridnour, who manages to look like an insane Mormon missionary.

2. Our defense was pretty good for the first four minutes when Sene wasn't entirely outmatched. At least he was trying. Petro apparently has already given up. After the first four minutes?? Um...

3. That was one of the ugliest ways I've seen of getting to 100 points, considering the number of lay-ins we blew.

4. Chris Wilcox still looks like a beast.

5. Damien Wilkins and Earl Watson are still great bench players.

6. We had about a dozen chances to put Portland away, go up by twenty, and coast. Instead, we missed easy shots, didn't get crucial offensive rebounds, or didn't defend the paint. It was a frustrating way to lose a first game.

7. Same ol' Sonics.

Dear Winner...

2006-10-31T11:03:00.000-08:00

I recently received this email and thought it might be the funniest thing I've ever seen. Let's go to the highlights...

Dear Winner

Well, they got my name right, even if (in the first of many such omissions) a "-" or "," is missing after the title.

We Apologies, for the delay of your payment and all the
Inconveniences and Inflict that we might have indulge
you through.

This is too rich. Instead of "Ultimate Explosion", I should start calling my posts "We Apologies". The comma following is great too. I did appreciate the apology, because I was wondering about the delay of my payment... wait a second...

Also, does one really indulge Inconveniences and Inflict? Do the Seahawks indulge Inflict on me? Probably. If it's anything like a kick to the junk than I know the feeling.

However, we were having some minor problems with our
payment system, which is Inexplicable, and have held us
stranded and Indolent, not having the Aspiration to
devote our 100% Assiduity in accrediting foreign
payments.

Indolent (adjective): Having or showing a disposition to avoid exertion

You have to give the writer credit. For apparently being a jabbering mental patient, he knows how to use the ol' Thesaurus. At least the words are big, and every time the word is big, it's also capitalized, probably so that he could point it out to his mother. "Look, mom! I used "Assiduity"!" Mom: "You're an idiot."

We apologies once again from the Records of outstanding
winners due for payment with {ONLINE CYBER
PROMOTION}your name and particular was discovered as
next on the list of the outstanding
winners who have not yet received their payments.

ONLINE CYBER PROMOTION sounds slightly dirty. I don't go to those sites. Really.

I wish to inform you now that the square peg is now in
square whole and can be voguish for that your payment
is being processed and will be released to you as soon
as you respond to this letter.

I cannot begin to tell you the relief I feel now that the square peg is in the square whole. Also, what the hell does "voguish" mean in this context?

Okay, but at least the point is clear. I respond to the letter and get my ONLINE CYBER PROMOTION payment. And then I can be voguish.

Also note that from our record in our file, your
outstanding winning payment is US$950.215.00 (NINE
HUNDRED AND FIFTY THOUSAND,TWO
HUNDRED AND FIFTEEN DOLLARS).

Sweet! Nine hundred and fifty thousand dollars! For free! I can't lose!

Payment will be made to you in a certified bank draft
or wire transfer into a nominated bank account of your
choice, as soon as you get in touched with.

Mr.Fred Kumar
E-mail: fredkumar_org@yahoo.es

Sounds easy! Of course, Mr. Kumar only has a yahoo address, which might be a bit of a warning flag. Only chumps use yahoo email addresses.

Provide him with the following details, as this will
enable him to process and release of your cash prize
without any delay.

Your Full Name:..................................
Telephone and fax Numbers:.........................
Residental Address:...............................
Your urgent reply Mr.Fred Kumar via e-mail:
fredkumar_org@yahoo.es

Let's get this right. To find a registered bank of my choice, I need to give Mr. Fred Kumar of yahoo.es my Full Name, a friggin' fax number, and my address? That's it? No "social security number", no "pin number", no "first born child into slavery"? Man, Freddie isn't even trying hard.

will effect the speedy release of your cash prize to
you within 48hours.

Yours Sincerely,
Mrs. Jane Philips
Vice President

I'm sorry for referring to this writer as a "he" for the entire post. Mrs. Jane Philips, Vice President of "Retarded Rhesus Monkey Writing, Inc" is most definitely not a dude... I guess. I'm somewhat tempted to respond, just to see where this one goes. Anyone feel like giving me their residential address that I can use? Nach?

What Happens When You Bring In New Writers...

2006-10-31T10:44:00.000-08:00

They start getting all "politics" this and "poor grammar" that.

However, it was a good call for us to bring on Nach since... well... he doesn't work. Bam!

Was anyone as completely depressed as I was when the news came out last night that Shaun is going to miss the Oakland game? Not only because we have to go without the MVP for another week, but also because I wasn't that surprised. It's been that kind of year so far...

Still, it's not like it was the offense's fault that we lost on Sunday, except for that absurd fourth down swing pass to Mack Strong on the final play (AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!). What an utterly abysmal defensive performance. I will give Larry Johnson some credit, he displayed a lot of patience in finding cutback lanes. We often had stopped his first read, but he waited long enough, and the offensive line held their blocks long enough, for a gaping hole to be open until Ken Hamlin could make the tackle.

Jordan Babineaux apparently is not the answer. I'll give you a better one... replace Grant Wistrom with Darryl Tapp. Tapp is already a far superior player than Wistrom, whose age is really beginning to show. He missed some key tackles and can't get pressure on a wounded lemur. I'm pretty disillusioned with him.

Speaking of bad performances, Lofa Tatupu (Lord of All That's Hustle) has started to miss a lot of tackles himself, and when the front line (we always miss Marcus Tubbs more than we think) allows the offensive line to move to the second level he is basically taken out.

Then our secondary is playing about as bad as they possibly could. It's not like Damon Huard was making pinpoint passes into triple coverage. His receivers were wide open. It was a whole afternoon of pitch and catch. That's why we can't stop anyone on third down. It's too easy.

Oh... right... the Scientific Method.

Scientific Method: 8-6
Petey Prisco: 10-4
Bill Simmons: 6-8

Season Standings:
Petey Prisco: 74-40
Scientific Method: 72-42
Bill Simmons: 60-54

(Insert maniacal laughter)

Colin's getting beaten by Petey Prisco! Take that, science!

Enough about last week. I didn't watch much, because I was driving through snow back from Leavenworth. Yay for Seattle drivers who freak out at the merest sign of slush!

Oh... and in an effort to completely confuse the purpose of this post, I agree with Dr. Detecto. Sign Jason Schmidt.

Seattle Sports Fan Voting Guide

2006-10-31T07:57:00.000-08:00

Since the average Seattle sports fan spends more time these days worrying about Matt Hasselback's knees, wondering where the Sonics will be next year,speculatingg about unexciting M's free agentpossibilitiess and waiting for Husky basketball to get interesting, you might not be so ready to tackle the current state of representative republicanism and make a decision come November 7th. That's a long sentence. I'm assuming you plan to vote. C'mon, we're the sate that voted for Hubert Humphrey that one time. Plus, it's not like anyone else is posting here.

Focus :: Congress
In case your last civics class was more than 20 minutes ago, congress is responsible for a number of things like creating laws, punishing pirates (I'm serious--Article I, section 8) and taxing the hell out of us. There are two kinds of congresspersons: Senators (each state gets two) and Representatives (each state gets a few dozen. At least the states that matter). Fun things congress gets to do that the president doesn't: declare war, create law, regulate trade between us and foreign nations, coin money (why do we still have the penny?), run post offices, impeach presidents and maintain interstate highways. Neat, huh?

Sigh. You choices for Washingtonian US Senator are:

Maria "Dot-com Debt" Cantwell (D): "Every day I'm working hard to put Washington first, keeping costs down for energy, health care and education." (Washington Voter's Pamphlet Statement) Sounds good to me. I enjoy how Republicans, Enron, President Bush and Oil Tankers are all in the same category later in the same statement as well. However, I don't like how she consistently votes "spend" while the budget goes deeper in debt. Why is it only the government that gets to spend what it doesn't have? Couldn't the M's benefit from a deficit spending push? You know, go and buy out some contracts? Hmm... I wonder if she roots for the Storm or Reign or whatever Seattle's WNBA team is.

Mike "Rapidly Receding Hairline" McGavick (R): His ads on TV are annoying, and I don't even have a TV. I'm sure saving SAFECO is exactly like being Senator. Also, stop telling me why the other candidate sucks (same goes for you Cantwell) and tell me what you're going to do. Don't tell me you're an awesome leader either, I can do that. The issues? Deficit spending (!), terrorism and border security. I like these issues, but he's a little short on specifics and I don't know all the party mumbo jumbo. I guess those issues could really be cutting essential services, pissing away the Bill of Rights and deporting foreigners. Mike seems to be the candidate most likely to be a bandwagon Hawks fan. Still... bust out a throwback Largent jersey and you might get my vote. Seriously, the first candidate I see...

Bruce "Peacefriend" Guthrie (L): Apparently "Libertarian" means vague. "I'm committed to restoring the great American promise for this generation, and those to come." Sounds good, but what does it mean? How? What's your plan? The issues according to Bruce are: Peace, Freedom, Hope and Values. Awesome. Probably blogs about Japanese baseball in his free time.

Robin "Loves Unicorns" Adair (I): I'd love to vote independent, but not for a candidate that CAN'T FORM COMPLETE SENTENCES! Check out this actual quote from the voter's guide, "The Sub-Economy. Moving more money than Economy itself. Not Measured. Paying few taxes. Unrecognized, totally man-made (no plagues, asteroids...)." ASTEROIDS? What the hell!? Just might be an M's fan. Or at least a Hargrove fan. It smells like the same kind of crazy.

Aaron "Couldn't Think of a Nickname That Wasn't Extremely Racist" Dixon (G): At least he's got a few specific plans (and reasons) included in his statement. He does get carried away--that is, his to-do list is way longer than his term. How will he prioritize? Who knows! Too bad I don't think the war in Iraq is much of an election issue or care he marched with MLK. It's all great and everything, but neither is a reason why I'd vote for/against you. I do like the bit about, "Fighting for the rights of working people, native-born and immigrant alike." That sounds good. Might actually be a Hawks fan too.

Bottom line :: I'd vote for Chuck Knox or an inebriated (Even if there's nothing else we've accomplished here at CrushedOptimists, at least we've firmly established that "inebriated" is the funniest of all the synonyms for drunk.) primate before any of these yahoos.

Now it's time to take a look at our choices for representative (by district)! Washington gets 9 of these for some reason. By "our", I mean the districts in and around King county. I'm still registered for Chelan country so I get to boggle my mind over Dick Wright or Doc Hastings! Booyah. Seriously, my entire ballot has three (D)s on it.

District 1: Jay Inslee (D) vs. Larry W. Ishmael (R)
Race slogan: "Either way, it's more of the same!"

This is how you know you're in trouble: when both candidates' statements start like this: "America is the greatest country on earth," (Inslee) and "There is no greater nation in the world that the one we call home," (Ishmael). It gets worse when they are BOTH committed to conservative fiscal policy, crossing party lines, protecting the environment and tightening our security. Are they the same guy or what? It's like choosing between Ponder and Scobey to return kicks. Not really a central issue. At least Inslee voted against the war in Iraq, which is a plus if that matters to you and thus is one of the few congressmen who have any integrity on the issue. Ishmael gets points taken away because he used "bitter partisanship" more than once in his statement.

District 7: Jim McDermott (D) vs. Steve Beren (R) vs. Linnea S. Noreen (I)
Race slogan: "Proof a threesome can be boring!"

Jin and Steve are basically party cut-outs. Jim loses points for shooting his mouth off in Iraq a while back and Steve loses points for being a rube. If Dino, Rob and Slade "Status Quo" Gordon are your big backers, then the voter can expect a whole lot of the same from Steve. Yes I agree lowering taxes, energy independence, security and supporting our troops are important. But I don't think you, Steve, are going to make those things any more real than Jim is suddenly going to pull a fair, affordable health care and education system our of his hat. Linnea? I like this bit in her statement, "Think back to 1989 and what has not improved." Hmm... traffic and the weather. And I'm not sure how much power a representative has over either (transportation being a sorry mess of federal, state, county and city jurisdictions). At worse she'd be incompetent, which isn't much of a change, since Jimmy McD hasn't actually accomploshed anything. Lame joke to tie it back in to sports: Er...

District 8: Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichart (R)
Race slogan: "Since when is Bellevue such a big deal?"

If you're belligerently partisan you've got your mind made up already. Both candidates stated goals seem to be take down the opposite party. Darcy seems to talk more about how much President Bush sucks than what she's going to bring to the table, while Dave is the incumbent in a district that's never voted Democrat. Whichever candidate raises the most hate (almost the same as money) will win most likely. If I could vote in this district, I'd mail a rabid squirrel to each party HQ, then write in "Just shoot me please!" on my ballot. This is depressing. Just like when I imagine Seattle sports without the Seahawks right now. Or is it when I think of the Seahawks? I forget.

Bottom line :: State representatives are boring and don't "accomplish" anything unless in large packs. What if Edgar ran for congress? Celebrity is the same thing as leadership and service, right? I'd pay attention for a little bit anyway.

Beyond the bottom line :: Until there are candidates that aren't:
a) crazy
b) clones of each other
c) committed to their party line more than reasonable thought
I'm just not going to care very much.
So you've got a week to decide that the whole thing's too much trouble and nothing's going to change if you don't vote so nothing will. I'll vote for the first person I see putting the "servant" back into public servant. SERVE ME!
BWA-HA-HA-Ha-ha... I need a job.

Low Expectations

2006-10-30T08:13:00.000-08:00

I really enjoyed the game yesterday. Crap-tastic defense aside, I think my expectations were so low I was able to let go of the fact that this game looked more like UW vs. USC than it did an NFL game. I was expecting sloppy, but sloppy shoddy offense, not defense. Sloppy D makes for an entertaining game.

Reasons why I was able to enjoy the loss:
1) We scored 28 points without a running game.
2a) We made big plays and our receivers showed some spark, despite the dropped balls.
2b) I thought there was no way Deion Branch got that ball. Even more amazing was the refs reversed the call.
3) Turnovers and KC mistakes kept us right in the middle of things. Honestly, KC didn't look very good in this win. They almost handed us the game a number of times in the second half. The only difference in the defenses was one could rush the passer (KC) and the other was chasing LJ.
4) My wife makes very good chocoalte chip cookies, which were consumed liberally throughout the contest.

Things I'm not dwelling on in an attempt to remain optimistic:
1) The horrible tackling. Good Lord, our DB's play like they have no arms. Boulware, that means you.
2) 3rd downs on defense.
3) Complete lack of a running game.

The best news of all? Next week is home against Oakland. Booyah.

Game Seven: Hawks at Kansas City

2006-10-28T14:36:00.000-07:00

I should title this post "Game That No One in Their Right Mind Should Have Any Clue About" because the storylines for this matchup are far less than inspiring.

Frankly, if you aren't a fan of either team, I don't think I'd TIVO this one, especially if, as rumored, Damon Huard is unable to go. Then you have Brodie Croyle going up against Seneca Wallace. FAAAAAAN-Tastic.

I'm writing this from the friendly confines of L-town, WA, in town after watching a very funny musical entitled, "Urinetown". That's right... Urinetown. Instead of referring to the Arizona Cardinals, it actually is the name of a location. If you like watching a lot of characters pass on, enjoy random exposition, and a show that rips off tons of other musicals, it's for you. Anyways, just my attempt to enrich the cultural lives of our few readers... especially since, according to our city leaders, basketball doesn't have any such effect, and with that starting up...

Speaking of which, how about that Robert Swift injury? Are we just cursed right now? Spencer Hawes has his own knee injury for the UW Men's team. If I was Lofa Tatupu, I'd be covering myself in bubble wrap to avoid the ACL tear headed his way, because just about every other important player recently has gone down. Ray Allen is next. I just know it. Also, I don't care about basketball yet.

I also don't care about the World Series or the Cardinals, especially since David "King Grit" Eckstein received the MVP award, proving yet again that the award is worthless. The fellows over at FireJoeMorgan have to be choking on their own bile over that one.

So... this game... not really sure what to write. One the one hand, we have a new quarterback, so all our passing numbers can be thrown out the window, and a new offensive line (enter Rob Sims, exit Spencer/Locklear), so even more offensive numbers are gone. If we score 20 points in this game I would be thrilled. The Chiefs defense is starting to look shaky after an impressive first few weeks, and I would call their numbers to still be skewed.

As for their offense, if it's Croyle at QB, all they have is Larry Johnson, who is a great back, but (outside of that 94 yard abomination a week ago) he runs into the strength of our defense. If you can't throw over the top on us (enter: Jordan Babineaux, who is definitely not as good as Boulware, but should at least not allow multiple 50 yard completions against us) you will have problems moving down the field. What's so frustrating about our defense is that they are so talented. We continue to force the opposition to face a third and long, and then let them off the hook. It's ridiculous.

What do I think is going to happen? I have no legitimate idea. I think it's going to be ugly. I think Arrowhead is a tough place to play, and I think we have zero things on offense to be optimistic about. At the end of the day, this is a long, ugly game that Kansas City pulls out 17-13.

The Scientific Method, Week 8

2006-10-27T09:31:00.000-07:00

We can all agree that I normally attack this post with the ferocity and passion of a pair of Vulcans caught in the ancient mating ritual where Spock once almost killed Kirk (a completely believable episode with brilliant acting all around).

However, sadly, I am caught in the throes of a nasal mutiny, where my sinuses have decided to overwhelm the rest of my body, including my brain, and elect themselves "Ruler of all that is Colin". Needless to say, the rest of my body, pummelled into submission, now exists solely to float above time and space, dispensing needed wisdom and jokes to whomever it meets.

In a way, this could be a good predicament for picking games, because science has deserted me the past two weeks, allowing the hated Petey Prisco the ability to catch up to me. This sickens me even more; to be put on par with one of the Peteys. Ouch.

So, here, instead of scientific picks, are the picks solely from my stuffed and clogged nasal cavities. I exist to do what they tell they to do until further notice.

Vote "Yes" on Prop 105. They tell me it doesn't matter what state you live in.

Actually, okay, here's a brief side note. In Arizona you are not allowed to register as an independent; only as a Republican or Democrat. Choosing Evil Incarnate #1, I went with Republican, forever branding myself to the academic community as a fruitcake. I have now, in the past two months, received upwards of two dozen calls from the Republican Party pressuring me to vote. Same with my wife. This leads me to believe one of three possibilities:

1. The Republicans have no better way to spend their money then by cold-calling said Republicans
2. The Republicans know that they are in a world of pain, and are seeking to end that by calling people who live in a state where the races aren't even close
3. Politics are for losers

I'm leaning towards choice #3, personally. Actually, that story also illustrates one other point that had been on my mind this week (see, I'm fighting back against the powers of my sinuses for you, the loyal reader(s)). Arizona State, like every other university, has a student newspaper, and in that student newspaper there exists an opinions section wherein 20 year olds pretend they know everything about the fate of the world. It's awesome, but no article I had read in my three years here came close to rivalling the stupidity of one I read this past Wednesday. The gist of the article was that the problem with our government was that they all had MBAs, which work wonderfully in the business world, and are terrible at developing governmental policy. This uber-genuises solution? Elect individuals with Ph.D.'s, as ACADEMICS had the intelligence and clear hearts necessary to lead our country. As someone who is about to become a Ph.D., I can assure both this author and you that electing academics would be the most idiotic move in the history of democracy. These people still believe in Marxism, people! The only difference between a regular schlub, like Gavin, and a doctor of the academy is that the academic has read a ton more of boring journal articles as well as undergone a few semi-cool research projects. This doesn't mean they are better equipped to lead the country. I would rather say that all leaders must have been a contestent on either "Survivor" or "The Amazing Race", as those shows bring out the wits, the problem-solving abilities, and the people skills that are foundational to governing.

Wow. I actually wrote there. Neat. Here's the picks!

Sunday:
Arizona at Green Bay
I must admit that I'm excited that Detroit has a bye week, so I can not worry about picking them to win once again. However, both these teams are poor to adequate. My sinuses choose:
Scientific Pick: Green Bay

Atlanta at Cincinnati
Michael Vick looked like a real quarterback last week. That can't be true for two weeks in a row. Cincy, by the way, has yet to really bust out offensively.
Scientific Pick: Cincy

Baltimore at New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-1. They are a good team, but I'm not sure if they are 5-1 good. Can I actually pick Baltimore to win this game? Why not?
Scientific Pick: Baltimore

Houston at Tennessee
There's the Gary Kubiak I thought was hired by the Texans. They obliterated the Jags last week, moving the ball at will against a darn good defense.
Scientific Pick: Houston

Jacksonville at Philadelphia
Speaking of Jacksonville, that team is in disarray right now, especially at the quarterback position. It appears that they are starting to realize that Leftwich might not be a prize chicken that everyone says he is.
Scientific Pick: Philly

Seattle at Kansas City
I was all set to pick KC, and then I hear that Brodie Croyle might be making his first start. So on one hand I have Seneca Wallace and Mo Morris, and on the other hand, I have a rookie quarterback and Larry Johnson. Hmmmm. Still have to go with Larry Johnson, I think.
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

San Francisco at Chicago
Must..... fight...... temptation...... to once again........ pick San Francisco........ to win a game.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Tampa Bay at NY Giants
Isn't it about time for Eli Manning to throw up an absolute stinker, like against Seattle? Yes, probably. Isn't it about time for the Giants secondary to become terrible once again? Yes, probably. Is Tampa Bay the team that can exploit those shortcomings? Yes on 1, No on 2.
Scientific Pick: NY Giants

St. Louis at San Diego
The St. Louis fall back to Planet Earth continues with a special stop to visit LT, Merriman (and he's really mad for some inexplicable reason), and Rivers.
Scientific Pick: San Diego

Indianapolis at Denver
To me, this is the toughtest game of the week to pick. Indy hasn't looked great, especially that defense. Denver hasn't looked great, especially that offense. Thus, the real fight will be between Peyton Manning and that awesome Denver defense. It's still the regular season, right?
Scientific Pick: Indy

NY Jets at Cleveland
Alright, Mangini, you win. I'll pick for y'all to win another game. You make me sick.
Scientific Pick: NY Jets

Pittsburgh at Oakland
Pittsburgh could throw out Charlie Batch in this game and I'd still pick them to win.
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

Dallas at Carolina
Tony Romo was a emergency move, and I'm not quite sure why Parcells decided to go down that route. What's the good of escapability if you just end up throwing it to the other team? Carolina, by the way, outplayed Cincy last week.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Monday:
New England at Minnesota
I refuse to pick Minnesota to win any time soon out of principle.
Scientific Pick: New England

What....... Game Recap?

2006-10-25T15:20:00.000-07:00

There was only one possible avenue that would have resulted in a game recap being posted either Sunday or Monday. That would be me, Colin, getting paid to write it by some sap, Gavin. No money meant absolutely no desire to relive the catastrophe of the Vikings coming to Qwest Field.

I almost titled this post, "The End of Respect". In a way, that's where I feel the Seahawks went. This site made a HUGE point last year about the lack of respect given to Seattle by the various Peteys of the mainstream media. We were picked to lose against Washington. We were definitely picked to lose against Carolina. And then...... we were in the Super Bowl.

Here's where the story gets a little interesting. Yes, during the lead up to the big game there were a plethora of stories about Jerome Bettis, Big Ben, Dick LeBeau, etc., etc. There were simply more storylines about the Pittsburgh Steelers. I admit that. However, when it actually came time for the experts to choose sides, a fair number sided with Seattle to become champions of the NFL. I really didn't feel disrespected going into the game.

Well, since that change of heart, the media continued to shower us with some love, ranking us #1 in the ESPN preseason power poll, getting Shaun on the cover of Madden, and generally counting us as one of the few title-hopeful teams. Sure, most predicted Carolina to go to the Super Bowl, but it was a pick over us in the NFC Championship Game. That's not a problem of respect, it's a guess pick before the season starts.

Our actual record since we started to get some love? 4-3. With those four wins, one was a squeaker over the Detroit Lions (who, by the way, are terrible and I'm going to stop picking for them to win NFL games), one was a win over an overhyped Cardinals team (who just lost to Oakland), one was a blowout of the Giants before they started to get good, and one was another squeaker against the St. Louis Rams.

In those wins, and certainly in those losses, we really haven't looked all that great. Seriously. We haven't. There was a reason why this site was not one to complain about how the refs cost us the Super Bowl. Sure, they didn't help, but the Hawks didn't appear to want to win that one. We have allowed more points than we have scored this year. Our offensive line has been abysmal, to the point where I wonder if Steve Hutchinson didn't play LG, C, RG, and RT by multiplying himself like that jagoff in the recent X-Men movie. Michael Boulware was on his way to becoming a star until he started guessing wrong. Constantly. Shaun couldn't get going and then he was injured. Walter has been hobbling since Week 1. Ditto Chris Gray and Sean Locklear. Stevens has been out. Hasselbeck is now out.

You want a list of teams in the NFC who simply look better right now?

1. Chicago Bears
This is the obvious one, what with that killer defense and improved offense, though I do think that they will lose a few before all is said and done.

2. New Orleans Saints
Don't hate me, but the Saints offense looks more consistent than ours right now. McAllister is running hard, and Drew Brees has been cool and efficient.

3. NY Giants
I agree with Gavin that this team has found a little something the past few weeks, especially on the defensive end. They continue that, and they can go places.

4. Minnesota Vikings
Do I WANT to include them on this list? Of course not. But I have to, because they kinda just beat us by 20, even though virtually all their scoring was due to brain farts by various Seahawks (two by Boulware).

5. Philadelphia Eagles
Put it this way. Would YOU want to face them in the playoffs right now? With that blitzing defense against our porous offensive line?

6. Carolina Panthers
I know they just lost again, but they outplayed Cincy and should have won. The defense looked as good as they had all year.

You could, I guess, make an argument for St. Louis, or possibly Atlanta, but I'm trying to be a realist here, not stupid. My point here is not to be a wet blanket, or to overemphasize the downside of the loss. I'm just looking at the NFC and noticing that the Hawks aren't playing like a top-tier team. Not right now, and not this season. MY respect for them has dropped. Forget the media. I'm hoping for a playoff berth now instead of booking plane fare for Miami in February. I'm hoping for ONE home playoff game instead of two.

Those hopes hinge on the fact that this is still a very talented football team. A VERY talented football team who might have relaxed once that respect started to come about from the national media. The pressure to succeed just might have relaxed, even by a little, but just enough to lose the chip on the shoulder, the push to prove the doubters wrong.

The good news is that the Seattle Seahawks are 4-2 so far this season, the same as last season at this time. They have beaten the Rams once, which is HUGE as the division title goes. They have already won two road games, which helps negate the blow of losing a home game already. However, this is gut check time. Gavin already posted on the upcoming games without Hasselbeck. Someone has to step up. Not next week, that's a lost cause. Arrowhead with Wallace and Morris? No. But after that? I, at the very least, want to see some of the fire back in this team. I saw it during the second half against the Rams, but it faded and was nowhere to be found against the Vikings. In fact, it appeared that the entire team gave up after Matt went down.

It's time to earn that respect. Once again. Earn it while everyone comes at you with the best they got because YOU have the target on your uniforms that say defending NFC Champions. Earn it without your best players. Earn it by, once again, playing the stifling defense that really was the difference for us last year. Earn it by doing your job. Just earn it.

Thoughts of the Unemployed

2006-10-25T08:15:00.000-07:00

When the Seahawks look to cut, they look to special teams. Not a big surprise, since it's a big bowl of mediocrity. Ponder is out, to make room for new #3 QB Gibran Hamdan... whoopty shit. Not like Gibran will ever play, so we get articles about how he's a "nice guy" and played in "NFL" Europe.
Sweet.

Ponder was not my favorite Seahawk. His kick return avg. (23 point something) ranks him 15th in the NFL this season. Right smack dab in the middle. Scobey, whom I imagine is going to get his old gig back, wasn't anything special at the position. I hope for adequate. I also hope Jimmy "Ohmygodohmygodohmygod" Williams doesn't even get close to returning kickoffs, as well as punts, for the Hawks.

With Ponder out, that moves Jimmy up to my least favorite Seahawks spot. Runner up: Chris Spencer...

I'm also enjoying the "Seneca, the Determined" thingys around the internet. It sure sounds better than "Seneca, the Scared @#$!-less". I am excited to see how the offense deals with this latest batch of adversity--let's just say my expectations have been lowered a lot. A game with no sacks allowed (we've done it once this season, against the Giants, I think) would be a good start.
Mack Strong, one of my favorite Seahawks when he's making blocks and gaining 35 yards on draw plays, writes, "Sometimes people get hurt. Matt didn't get hurt from a sack, but we've got to find a solution to the sack issue in a hurry (24 all of last year and 21 through six games this season). It's just disappointing. "

So is he disappointed in himself, then?

Ultimate Explosion!! - Week 7 in Review

2006-10-24T13:22:00.000-07:00

I have to admit that there's a part of me that is still depressed... apparently Colin shares that, since he still has avoided even writing about last week's game. That's when he takes an "out of sight, out of mind" approach to blogging after a loss.

Personally, I am sick and tired of how bad our offensive line and secondary performance has been. We are WAY past excuse time. At some point it becomes ridiculous to see all these big plays, which skew the numbers, especially on the scoreboard. I'm also upset to see how overrated Minnesota is. Sheesh.

At least it was good to listen to Bryce Fisher on the radio today and hear his frustration with the defensive effort, and it was good to read about Mike Holmgren finally going off on the team in the press yesterday.

Moving on... anyone who has read us for a while (sorry) might remember our appreciation for one Paul Shirley, a struggling basketball player who moonlights as a writer for ESPN.com. His chat yesterday right after being cut from the Timberwolves was classic. My favorite question/answer?

Paul (Minneapolis, MN): The Timberwolves have a history of bringing their rookies along slowly. Do you think Foye will get a lot of minutes out of the gate or will they ease him into the NBA?
Paul Shirley: I think they'll take their time, based on how he has been used in the preseason.....Not that I really give a damn. I hope they lose every game.

That is good stuff. I also like...

Jason (Houston, Texas): who are you? i stumbled across this on ESPN's frontpage.
Paul Shirley: I am...unemployed.

I wasn't going to do a third... but seriously, as a Sonics fan...

Jamar Knox (Jackson, TN): Who do you look up to in the NBA,since you can't really play in the NBA right now?
Paul Shirley: My favorite NBA player, regardless of my status, is Radmanovic. He just seems so...apathetic. I respect that.

Back to football and the Scientific Method...

Week 7 Results:
Scientific Method: 4-9 (Bwa hahahah)
Petey Prisco: 8-5
Bill Simmons: 5-8

Season Standings:
Scientific Method: 64-36
Petey Prisco: 64-36
Bill Simmons: 54-46

The Scientific Method sinks lower back to oblivion, allowing Petey Prisco of all people to catch up to him. Very disappointing.

What in the World Were They Smoking?

Here's the ridiculous thing. Colin goes 4-9, and I can really only make fun of him for one game. This is getting frustrating. The NY Jets have played well at home all year. Detroit has been awful on the road all year. So Colin picks the Lions because he's still so enamored with Shaun Rogers (WHO IS ON SUSPENSION!!). This was not a difficult game to pick. On the other hand, Bill Simmons did pick the Redskins to at least cover the spread against the Colts, which didn't happen either. Washington has been so bad defensively that you just knew Peyton Manning was going to have a field day. Simmons followed that gem up by picking Cleveland over Denver. How on earth does that one happen. Cleveland couldn't score against a team full of handicapped midgets.

Best Picks of the Week

This award definitely goes to Petey Prisco for these two gems. The first was picking a one point victory for Tampa Bay over Philadelphia. I sure didn't see that one coming... but then again, you don't normally see TWO interceptions returned for touchdowns in the same game against Donovan McNabb. However, that's what happens when you still don't have a running game. I will say that the touchdown from Brian Westbrook to get the lead was one heck of a play, but you have to hand it to that field goal kicker (too lazy to look up his name). A 62 yarder is quite something. I would be pulling my hair out as a Philly fan... to lose on last second field goals two weeks in a row is insane. I'd almost prefer getting killed (like the Seahawks). The next pick Prisco had was picking Kansas City to beat the Chargers. Yes, Arrowhead is always a tough place to play, but with how good the Chargers have looked, Damon Huard would not be my choice to pull off the upset.

Biggest Disappointments

It's time to pat myself on the back again about the Dallas Cowboys, a very trendy pick to win the NFC Championship this year (freaking Petey King). The offensive line didn't play well last year, Drew Bledsoe is a statue, and it didn't take a genius to think that if the defense played bad in a game, they would struggle. What I didn't expect was for Bill Parcells to go to Tony Romo so early in the year. That's not going to make Terrell Owens very happy, and an already combustible situation could get much much worse.

Carolina's run defense continues to be an achilles heel, and a reason why Chicago is definitely head and shoulders above the competition (not to mention the Giants right now). When you allow Rudi Johnson to get 100 yards in the final three quarters and allow the Cincy offense to look better, you have issues. Not to mention that awful interception thrown by Jake Delhomme.

Big time boos go after the Pittsburgh Steelers, who seriously put their season in jeapordy. If 10-6 is needed to really ensure a postseason berth (and remember that the Chiefs and Chargers missed the playoffs last year with that record) they now need to go 8-2 over the remainder of their schedule. Ouch. From Bill Cowher taking too many timeouts to ice the Falcons kicker, to Nate Washington flinching, to all the complaining afterwards, the Steelers are melting. Also, the secondary play was atrocious. You cannot let Michael Vick look that good through the air against you.

Of course one cannot pass the chance to poke fun at the Jacksonville Jaguars, who put up a thoroughly unimpressive performance against Houston. Maybe the Texans really are improved (which is what we called during our season preview), but regardless if Jacksonville wants to be taken seriously instead of being called overrated (which is what we called during our season preview) they cannot be beaten by twenty by Houston. Never.

Most Impressive Performances

Speaking of Houston, David Carr is doing a great job reminding the league what he can do if actually given time, and Gary Kubiak is doing a great job helping give him time. Surprised Andre Johnson is turning into a premier receiver? You shouldn't be. The talent has always been there. Now if they can get a consistent defensive performance they will approach 6-7 wins this year and feel very good about next season.

The Tampa Bay defense masked an awful performance by the offense to knock off the Eagles.

In my opinion, the NY Giants are the best team in the NFC right now. I am very interested in seeing their Sunday Night battle with the Bears to see if I'm right. They just took it to Dallas on the road, which was important to see in Eli Manning's development. The big change I see? Plaxico Burress is turning into a game-changing receiver.

That's it for now, campers!

This Season Can Be Salvaged...

2006-10-23T11:07:00.000-07:00

Matt Hasselbeck will only be out a month. I sure thought it could be worse... especially with how this season has gone so far on the injury front.

At this point we need to stop thinking about first round byes and just about survival, steal a few wins without Matt and Shaun and keep our head above water in the NFC West. Luckily, the Rams have a difficult schedule themselves right now.

Here's the schedule right now:

10/29 - at Kansas City
No Shaun, No Matt, Arrowhead Stadium. Trent Green will be back for the Chiefs. I don't think we should expect a victory here.

11/6 - vs Oakland
Monday night game, possible return of Shaun. Home against a very bad Raiders team. Should be able to steal this one.

11/12 - vs St Louis
Man, this game sure looms large. Shaun should definitely be back, which will help Seneca out. At the least we'll have a good idea what Seneca can do by then and the Rams are very bad on the road.

11/19 - at San Francisco
Good news is this is another game against a bad team. The bad news is that San Francisco plays well at home and I don't think Matt will be back by now, if only because they're going to want to be extra careful with him.

11/27 - vs Green Bay
This is when we start crossing our fingers, but again a Monday Night game against a very bad opponent.

12/3 - at Denver
No Matt. No Victory. Simple as that.

My guess is that we'll have Matt back by Denver but he'll still be rusty, meaning we'll probably be 7-5 at that point and scrambling for a playoff berth.

The Rams during that time span play:
at San Diego, vs Kansas City, at HAWKS, at Carolina, vs San Francisco, vs Arizona

My guess is they'll be 7-5 too, with beating us in that run.

It's going to be a bumpy ride, but at least we still have hope.

Blindsided

2006-10-22T21:35:00.000-07:00

Five "gut reasons" not to ever listen to another thing Gavin says. Like you needed evidence to not take us seriously. Let's review:

1) "Qwest field will help our defense play well." Our defense couldn't get any consistent pressure on the QB or stop the run up the middle... not stopping the run not being much of a surprise. We gave up a number of critical third down conversions.

2) "Brad Johnson sucks." With time, he picked us apart. Plus, since his side could run the ball, he didn't have to be Joe Montana to burn our secondary.

3) "Jerramy Stevens is back." Really? Where?

4) "Kaz sucks." Yes, but we did get to see a number of Viking linebackers completely outmach Mo Morris' and Mack Strong's collective pass-blocking attempts while our punt and kick coverage was full of holes.

5) "Minnesota lacks anyone with big play ability on either side of the ball, which forces them to play ball control offense, which completely plays into our hands."
Hmmm... what are a 95 yard TD run, 40 yard pass to Robinson, some nice kick returns and a defensive touchdown?Not big plays that broke us, that for sure.

On the flip side, Gavin's every reason to be pessimistic came true. Startling.

Bottom line :: Seattle was pushed around at the line on both sides of the ball. No consistent defensive pressure on Johnson and we couldn't block to save our lives. Our offensive line and blocking backs had TERRIBLE, mistake riddled, undisciplined games. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage controls the game and Seattle blew hard. Like the north wind over the frozen steppe of Kazakhstan. At least my fantasy team kicked serious patootie, as a certain sister in law of mine would say. On to Monday and another day of employment, maybe!

Game 6: Minnesota at SEATTLE

2006-10-21T21:14:00.000-07:00

For some reason, Blogger has been down for a while, so for all those who have been desperately awaiting this preview... my apologies.

Congratulations to the UW Huskies for yet again coming "this close" to knocking off a top 10 opponent on the road. They are now 0-3 in such opportunities, and each time have been closer. At some point for the program to be taken seriously they should actually try winning.

Also, if anyone hasn't seen the NFL Replay or NFL Films Game of the Week of the St Louis game, then shame on you. The NFL Replay might be one of the coolest new inventions for football fans in years.

Oh yeah... so Minnesota is playing Seattle tomorrow. Anyone hear that Steve Hutchinson plays for the Vikings? Well, he does... and that means extroardinarily litle in terms of who I think will win.

Five "Gut" Reasons for Optimism

1. Qwest Field. Now that we've had two games on the road, fans might have a tendency to forget how good how team, and especially our defense, can be at home. We have had two completely dominating home performances. No reason we can't have a third.

2. Brad Johnson quarterbacks the Vikings. Frightened? Only if you are a three year old girl.

3. Jerramy Stevens is back. I know I wrote this last week, but seriously, we could really use his big play ability up the middle and in the red zone. He will definitely help the running game by helping us pass in run formations.

4. We won't have to see Isaiah Kazcyvenski (however you spell his friggin' name) every other minute.

5. Minnesota lacks anyone with big play ability on either side of the ball, which forces them to play ball control offense, which completely plays into our hands.

Five "Gut" Reasons for Pessimism

1. Chris Spencer got totally abused last week. He has seemed to get progressively worse as the starts have continued. We simply can't have this constant battering of Hasselbeck continue... he will go down.

2. Which Holmgren will show up? Bad Holmgren, from the 1st half last week, or Good Holmgren, from the second half? Can we run?

3. Is our pass rush going to come alive again? Will Grant Wistrom EVER get one in a big moment? I make fun of Brad Johnson above, but if given time he can very quietly and smartly pick a defense apart.

4. There is the potential for an emotional letdown after such a big win last week. We can't allow for that to happen and must get to 5-1.

5. We had WAY too many penalties last week... definitely not Mike Holmgren football.

It's All About the Stats

1. Minnesota may have Hutch and the offensive line hype, but their rushing attack is not very good. They are 23rd in Stuffed at 26.8%, and 30th in Power Success at a measly 33.3%. They are simply not picking up tough yards, and of course this plays right into our defense's hands.

2. What about Minny's passing attack? They are really good at protecting the passer, a terrific adjusted sack rate of only 3.8% (compared to 9.7% for us). Their number one WR in DPAR is Troy Williamson, a terrible 62nd in the league. That's right... 62nd. After all these weeks of dealing with Roy Williams, Larry Fitzgerald and Torry Holt, this does not present an inordinate challenge for the "D".

3. Why is getting Jerramy Stevens back important? Well, last year Stevens was the 6th rated TE in DPAR in the league, 7th in DVOA at 24.3%. That is a huge weapon back in the arsenal. Huge.

4. Darrell Jackson is the 3rd most valuable receiver in the NFL right now, and Deion Branch, after missing the first few weeks, is rocketing up the charts himself (currently at 40th). While the rushing attack is still lacking in consistency, the passing work is really clicking. What does Minnesota do against the pass? The Vikings are allowing a league worst 80.6% DVOA for the opponents' #1 WR. While they are better against the #2, the #3 is getting a 31.7% DVOA, 26th in the league. This is good news.

5. Finally, the Vikings don't get consistent pressure on the QB, which a mediocre 6.0% adjusted sack rate, right in front of the Houston Texans. However, they do have a good rushing defense. It's probably going to be a passing type of game.

This should definitely be a win... these Hawks should ride the crowd to 5-1. Let's rock it tomorrow!

Why to Never Listen to Bill Simmons About the Seahawks

2006-10-20T15:40:00.000-07:00

Bill's COMPLETELY WRONG summary of the Rams/Seahawks game:

I liked what the Hawks did last week: They couldn't run the ball since Maurice Morris sucks, so they pull a "Madden" move and start throwing every down ... and it works! Then they're running out the clock and Morris fumbles (I mentioned he sucks, right?), then Holt catches that insane six-tip touchdown and it looks like the Hawks might lose because their kicker missed a field goal that hit both uprights. So what happens? They march down the field and the same kicker buries a 54-yarder at the whistle. Now that's a gutsy win. But you know what? They still can't run the ball. I don't like picking teams to cover big spreads when they can't run the ball.

Here's the problem, Bill. The game happened in EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE FASHION!!

If any of you actually read my game summary, you would know that the Seahawks STARTED the game as a pass-only offense and sucked. They then, in the second half, became a BALANCED offense, and did not suck. Again, that is EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE of what Bill Simmons says happened.

Seattle rushed for over 100 yards. The RAMS rushed for like 56 yards. Which team can't run the football, Bill?

Good Lord. Bill Simmons knows absolutely nothing about Seattle sports.

The Scientific Method: Week 7

2006-10-19T21:27:00.000-07:00

Gavin and I were chewing the fat earlier today, discussing why this site has turned into a "Scientific Method - Game Preview - Game Recap - Ultimate Explosion" blog for the last couple of weeks. Seriously. We used to be cool! And write stuff!

A few possible explanations readily came to mind:

1. The Seattle Mariners, over the past couple of years, have slowly zapped my baseball enthusiasm from my veins. You have Mike Hargrove as manager (and I don't care how much a manager matters to wins or losses, Hargrove just sucks, alright? He sucks, he really, really, sucks, and I dislike his fat butt sitting in my team's dugout.). You have an offense that consistently underperforms, ever since 2002. Even worse, you have a team where the guys never seem to care that much, again stretching back to 2002. Did Olerud of Edgar ever show any sign of emotion whatsoever? I understand that, perhaps, baseball isn't a fiery sport, but I had the Extra Innings package, and I watched PLENTY of baseball this year. When you watched a team like the Tigers, their overall team ENERGY jumped out at you. You had Nate Robertson chewing HUGE amounts of gum to spur on comebacks. You had vocal leaders like Pudge Rodriguez and energy guys like Craig Monroe. You know what? They looked like they were having fun, and it was fun to watch them, even as a guy who had zero interest in them from a fan perspective before the season started. It was also fun to watch the New York Mets, with Pedro laughing in the clubhouse to Jose Reyes' smile after swiping another base. Win or lose, they were having a good time. But the M's? SO BORING!!! Wake me up when we get Schmidt AND Matsuzaka. Then we'll talk. Until then? It's uninteresting to write about an uninteresting team with uninteresting players.

2. The Seattle* Sonics
* Soon to be the Oklahoma City Sonics, which continues to piss me off, no matter how much Dave Locke is convinced that all those Oklahoma investors are in it to help out the city of Seattle retain an NBA franchise. They also drafted some 8 footer from Senegal in the draft for no particular reason.

3. The UW Husky Football Team
When the highlight of your season is a near win at USC (which, by the way, describes EVERY OTHER team in the Pac-10, you probably still have some improving to do. Let's wait until next year, when the real fun might start.

Our conclusion? Write more about the NFL, I guess, which we will start doing here in the next couple of weeks, as the middle of the season rears its ugly head. Lord knows you won't catch us writing about the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, a result that is only not preposterous when you understand that the other possibilities would have been the NY Mets sans Pedro and El Duque, the San Diego Padres, and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The other reason I haven't been writing as much is that I've had to read awesome books for the doctoral program like, "Speaking Into the Air", a gripping book on communication dealing with those who talk to aliens, animals, and dead people. Needless to say, I was a fan. Especially when part of the book talks passages from the book of John COMPLETELY out of context, stating that Jesus was the ultimate disseminator of communication because of the parable of the sower, Jesus thus believing that the message itself wasn't important, only the meaning that was created by the receiver. That, I'm sure, would be extremely surprising for Jesus to hear, him not caring about the message. It's also irritating for me to read an academic attempt to smoosh Jesus into just another gifted speaker and philosopher. Um..... if I knew someone who continued, CONSTANTLY, to claim that he was God and that we should all follow and worship him, I wouldn't call him a gifted philosopher. I'd call him a nut. That's where CS Lewis' Liar-Lunatic-Lord argument comes into focus.

But enough of the school travails. What about the travails of science, who hit an extremely rough patch last week?! Obviously I dusted off the old beakers and formulated a new chemical solution, one rich in cadmium and tungsten. I also drank a Pepsi and some cranberry juice. And no, I'm not on my period (thank you, "The Departed", for a line I will neever forget). Back to basics, Colin. I am NOT about to lose my top spot to Petey Prisco!

Sunday:
Carolina at Cincinnati
Of course, the continued rise to glory takes a stop at a very difficult game to call, that of Carolina at Cincy. Carolina doesn't get bothered on the road (except in Seattle, boo-yah), and Julius Peppers will be getting blocked by a rookie left tackle. That's not good. Cincy's rushing defense still sucks. That's not good. Chad Johnson has been doing nothing so far this year. That's not good. However, Carolina has yet to play a very impressive game this year (though MAYBE the Baltimore game counts). Man, so much to think about. Carolina's run defense isn't anything to write home about. Dang blast it.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Detroit at NY Jets
Just when I thought the Jets were ready to sink back down into the gutter, they go out and lay the wood to Miami, a team that has hit the gutter and sunk down into the Lost Kingdom of Atlantis. Detroit, on the other hand, actually won a game, surprising those of us who forgot that every dog not from Oakland has its day. It's still hard for me to forget how good that defense looked against us, and that offense has shown that it can, at the vey least, semi-move the ball.
Scientific Pick: Detroit

Green Bay at Miami
Here's the "Buh" game of the week. Seeing as I have picked Miami virtually every week this year, only to get lambasted by Joey Harrington and a porous offensive line, I must go against every bone in my body and pick Brett Favre.
Scientific Pick: Green Bay

Jacksonville at Houston
Houston looked good against Dallas for the first half, up until Dallas remembered that they needed to win the game in order to have a better shot at the postseason. Then that ugly secondary reared its head. Knowing Jacksonville, they will be losing by 10 sometime in this ballgame, only to barely eke out a win on the combination of stellar defense and a long run by Maurice Jones-Drew.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville

New England at Buffalo
Have I mentioned recently that I hate the AFC East? Are there any actual interesting games that are played in that division? Can someone point me in that direction?
Scientific Pick: New England

Philadelpia at Tampa Bay
You have to be impressed in how a rookie quarterback has looked better than Chris Simms so far this season. Unless you are either Gavin or myself, who both hate Chris Simms and have never believed in him, scoffing at the amount of hype lavished upon the son of Phil-Dawg. Basically, blessing in disguise for Bucs fans, who seem like NOW they have their quarterback of the future. Philly, on the other hand, has THE quarterback of the present, who can, um, do some things at the quarterback position. I like him a lot.
Scientific Pick: Philly

Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Ahhhh, sweet, sweet smell of being right about Michael Vick. People were lapping his feet once again after starting the season 2-0 behind a college-option system that was doomed to be figured out in about, well, two weeks. Now? The SAME questions arise about the simple fact that he can't seem to throw the football. At all. If I was a Falcons fan, and my team was down by 14, I would want Schaub in that game. He can throw it, and the Falcons would have a greater chance at winning consistently with him involved. Nice to see that the Falcons coaching staff agrees with me. As for Pittsburgh, no one SHOULD have been writing them off. They're a good team, if not a Super Bowl favorite. They'll be fine.
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

San Diego at Kansas City
Ok, ok, so picking San Francisco over San Diego was a mistake. I thought that the San Fran defense would show up to the game. My bad. Kansas City HAD a defense until last week, when they were shredded by Big Ben in a game that can only be called, "boring as all getout". Damon Huard against Shawn Merriman. Hmmmm.
Scientific Pick: San Diego

Denver at Cleveland
I sense another 12-6 win in the horizon for the Broncos. What a ridiculous schedule so far, especially with as poor a showing as that offense has been producing. This is Cleveland, however, and I don't predict Cleveland to win any games whre they aren't playing Oakland. Strict policy.
Scientific Pick: Denver

Arizona at Oakland
No jokes. I hope Arizona wins, so that a tortured fan base can relax for one week.
Scientific Pick: Arizona

Minnesota at Seattle
Lost in the Steve Hutchinson kerfuffle is the simple fact that BOTH players involved haven't really made too much of a difference respectively. Minny's offense can't consistently score, and Nate Burleson has gone missing all season long. The real story will be the improved Minnesota defense (especially rushing defense) against Mo Morris and Matt Hasselbeck. Luckily, the Hawks are finally back in the friendly confines of Qwest Field, so they should take care of business.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Washington at Indianapolis
I REALLY want to pick Washington, but that defense has been terrible! Where is the great blitzing schemes and coverages of seasons past? How can Vince Young move the ball consistently AT WASHINGTON?? Sure, a lot of blame is being laid on the feet of Mark Brunell, but their run of last season was spurred, in large part, by the ballhawking defense of the 'Skins. Without that, they can't possibly score enough to match Indy, even as poor as the Colts have been playing recently.
Scientific Pick: Indy

Monday:
NY Giants at Dallas
This should actually be a great game. The Giants, after getting embarrassed by us, have played good football in beating the Skins and Falcons, while the Cowboys outplayed the Eagles, only to lose, and destroyed the Texans. Both my quarterbacks will be playing, trying to get me out of a four week fantasy losing streak continued last week solely because of Edge James record-breaking night of futility.
Scientific Pick: Dallas

Ultimate Explosion!! Week Six in Review

2006-10-17T14:02:00.000-07:00

Everyone can't stop writing about it... and neither can I.

I have NEVER been as sick/upset after a game between two teams I don't have much of an emotional attachment to than after last night's debacle. I can't even fathom what it's like to be a Cardinals fan right now... when Colin and I go watch the Hawks play there in December I think we'll try and pass out group hugs to as many fans as possible. Bring a sign that says, "I know it's hard, but we care". How on earth do you lose that game? A game where the opposing offense scores a grand total of zero touchdowns in coming back from a 20 point halftime deficit. A game where the opposing quarterback is responsible for SIX turnovers, a boggling total? Where even after all the pain, a rookie quarterback executes the two minute drill to perfection against the best defense in the NFL to give last year's Pro Bowl kicker the chance to win the game with a chip shot field goal.

First note here... to all the complainers who believe the Cardinals should have gone for the jugular or farther down the field, remember, you are going against the Bears... with the worst offensive line in the league. You don't want to throw a pick, you don't want to have a sack take you farther out of range... so you run the ball, and that apparently was a bad move all night.

I'm moderately irritated at some commentators who only now are really on the "Cardinals have a terrible offensive line" bandwagon that Colin and I have been preaching since, I don't know, the beginning of LAST SEASON. They overlook it while picking them to win the NFC West last year, overlook it while predicting them to be a big dark horse this year, and only after Edgerrin James has the worst yards per carry average in the history of the game for the number of carries he had does the lightbulb come on.

I think I'm decently pleased to be moving on if I'm the fired Cardinals offensive coordinator. He was making some smart play calls (well, not at the end, but more on that later). After getting the turnovers in the first half, he was trying to not put the entire game on Leinart, opening him up to a Chicago blitz by running the ball on first down. Unfortunately, that was only netting about, say, one yard, which meant second-and-nine, third-and-nine. At the end of the day that meant field goals and an opportunity for the Bears to recover. Now, at the end of the game, the coordinator started calling all these passes since the run game was apparently going nowhere, and lost about four minutes because of the incompletions. I'd have understood the play selection more if the Chicago offense wasn't playing so terribly themselves. At that point you have to simply run out the clock.

Speaking of Chicago, I think they got exposed a bit (and yes, I understand it's only one game). Rex Grossman is a young quarterback and can get erratic, can force balls if you play smart and don't allow them to haul off and throw the deep ball. The running game still isn't good, and if you get to Grossman he'll turn it over, and look as bad as he did in the preseason. As for the defense, it's not impressive they allowed a one dimensional attack to look that good during those opening drives, or on the two minute drill. You get decent blocking and receivers will find holes. It's true against any defense. All in all, I continue to avoid picking the Bears as the "team of destiny". Are they the best team in the NFL right now? Yes. Will they win the Super Bowl? Probably not... very rarely does the team playing the best in September-October become the team playing the best in January (see the Minnesota Vikings/Kansas City Chiefs/Indianapolis Colts for more information). At this point I'm probably more concerned about the Giants than the Bears... a revitalized defensive effort coupled with a more consistent effort from Eli Manning is bad news for the rest of the league.

Oh yeah... the picks. The Scientific Method finally stumbled some this week.

Week Six Results:
Scientific Method: 6-7
Petey Prisco: 9-4
Bill Simmons: 8-5

Season Standings:
Scientific Method: 60-27
Petey Prisco: 56-31
Bill Simmons: 49-38

What in the World Were They Smoking?

Colin is allowing Prisco to creep dangerously close to that pole position, even if he was the only one to accurately predict that insanely cool Seahawks win (more on that later). How did Colin sink so low? Basically, by playing it safe in a week that had quite a few upsets... and being a moron and picking San Francisco over San Diego. I think he got confused which team had LaDainian Tomlinson (hint: it's San Diego). Colin also has a thing for the 49ers, considering that he's picked them to win the past three weeks (he would have them be 3-3 overall). I'm not sure why he thinks so highly of the 49ers, it's more than likely that we've found the secret "scientific formula", involving monkey feces and a dartboard. He also has a man-crush on Alex Smith.

Oh yeah... Bill Simmons also picked the Niners to win.

Anyways, beyond that, Colin didn't forsee the Lions actually holding on for their first win, or the Bucs capitalizing on the worst "roughing the passer" penalty in the history of the universe to win their first game, or the Ravens choking away a win against the Panthers. So I'll let him off with a warning... his bad week was related to one of the most entertaining weeks of football in recent memory.

To go through this better...

New Orleans 27, Philadelphia 24

The Saints jumped out to a big lead by basically forcing Donovan McNabb to throw short to bad receivers and stuffing the run. You'd think more people would have figured this out about the Eagles yet, but they're too busy anointing McNabb "savior of all things decent and good". The Eagles sure get lucky with their big plays, that run after the catch by Reggie Brown was a thing of beauty, sure, but he also should have been tackled thirty yards short of the goal line. It was vaguely reminiscent of the Hank Baskett catch against Dallas the week previous. In other words, the Eagles have offensive problems which are not being given the proper attention because of a few big plays each week. As for the Saints, I'd love to say I picked this, but at the least I'll note that in my preview of New Orleans I gave a lot of love to the offense, which had a lot of reason for optimism. What I didn't see was a defense that would give the offense multiple opportunities to win games. Also, I need to give love to Sean Payton for gutsy play calling on that 8 minute drive. It was a team-defining drive, and team-defining win.

Carolina 23, Baltimore 21

Here's what kills me about the Panthers and Steve Smith. Each week people talk about how dangerous Smith it, how he carries the Panther offensive attack, how the team is nothing without him... and then they game plan to basically let him do whatever he wants. Carolina had success with the three wide receiver formation because (for starters, Drew Carter is a darn good receiver) the Ravens stuck with their base formation and didn't bring in a third corner. Why exactly does one do that? I don't care how incredible Ed Reed is, he shouldn't be chasing Steve Smith across the field while he heads for the end zone. Of course the Ravens were also the beneficiaries of two incredibly lucky touchdowns. I don't know if we'll ever see something like that again, but give credit to Mark Clayton, who didn't give up on either of the plays and rewarded his effort with two touchdowns.

NY Giants 27, Atlanta 14

Here's a shocker... Atlanta passed instead of ran, coughed up a huge lead and lost. Maybe... just maybe... Michael Vick isn't a good quarterback. Look, this whole "option thing" is all shiny and pretty, but it is not going to be effective for a full season against NFL linebackers. They are too good and too fast. Until Vick is able to move the ball down the field through the air he will never be a Pro Bowl quarterback in my book. Congrats to the Giants for actually playing smart defense, perhaps more teams will follow their handbook finally.

Tennessee 25, Washington 22

Here's what I don't understand about the Redskins... the defense. I don't think Mark Brunell is answering the questions about the new offense and his future with the team if that defense was actually forcing people off the field. Rookie quarterback on the road against what should have been a top five unit? Final score should have been 22-10. Instead the Redskins allowed too many third down conversions and, as has been the case for much of the year, couldn't stop the run. If they miss the playoffs it will be on their heads. Still, congrats to Vince Young and the Titans. Young did make some nice throws, and I will say again (as I said after the Rose Bowl) that I think he has a chance to be a legitimate NFL QB, more so than Vick.

Tampa Bay 14, Cincinnati 13

Yes, the "roughing the passer" penalty was terrible, first time I'd seen that called ON THE TACKLE, but how on earth does that Bengal offense only put up 13 points anyways? I was tracking my fantasy team that contains Rudi Johnson and I had to check the box score a couple of times to make sure they were still getting the live feed because I wasn't getting any points from him. You have Rudi, Chad Johnson, that Houshmandzadeh guy... put up 20 points a game easy and this game isn't a second loss. The Bengals had a prime chance to get a stranglehold on what looks to be an extremely competitive AFC North race, and completely failed. I would be very disappointed in the overall effort if I was a Bengals fan, not just that penalty.

Seattle 30, St Louis 28

Like I was going to avoid saying anything here.

1. Our defense finally got a pass rush to Bulger, who is very very bad under pressure.
2. The Rams quit calling pass plays downfield (perhaps because of said pressure). I remember a third down play where the ball hit Tory Holt in the hands and he dropped it, but was five yards short of a first down anyways and running sideways. Short pass plays is also our defense's bread and butter to defend against.
3. I was very confident that Josh Brown would hit that field goal.
4. I'm still in inner pandemonium.

Well, this was a different way of doing this write-up, but there were too many great games to avoid going through some individually. I like the NFL a lot.

Oh... and I'm supposed to apologize to Oregon State fans everywhere for saying their team "sucks" before they played a Washington team apparently bent on proving me wrong. So, sorry. I mean it. Really.

Seahawks, Islamic Extremists and Emotional Disparity

2006-10-16T17:22:00.000-07:00

It doesn't fee like the Seahawks are 4 and 1. It feels like we just clinched the playoffs on the last play of the regular season. After the first half, I wasn't sure if I knew who the Seahawks were anymore. Then I remembered. Still, I was spent after the game on account of the disparity between my irrational emotional involvement and my actual effect on the games outcome.

This lead me to wondering if Islamic extremists' emotions go through the same ups and downs as a Seahawks fan. The following chart seems to indicate otherwise, but what do I know?

Week Six Recap: Wowsers.....

2006-10-15T21:25:00.000-07:00

WOW!! EXCELLENT!!!

NOOOOOO!!! WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE YOU DOING!!!

YES!!!! I'M ON TOP OF THE WORLD!!!

YOU GUYS SUCK DONKEY BALLS!!!

I LOVE EACH AND EVERY ONE OF YOU!!!!

OH NO!!! DON'T TELL ME THAT THE TEAM THAT EMPLOYS ISAIAH KACYVENSKI, WHO FOX HAS SHOWN A TOTAL OF 59 TIMES DURING THIS GAME, IS GOING TO WIN!!!

YES!!!! THANK YOU, SWEET JESUS!!!

Those thoughts, and more, ran through my head in what just might be the turn-around game that we have been waiting for this entire season from the Seattle Seahawks. I have several thoughts about this game, but they are all over the place, so I'm neglecting my usual format and just writing off the cuff:

-- Huge goat in this game? Scott Linehan, or whoever is calling the offensive plays for St. Louis. Let me show you how the Rams scored their early 21 points, on three of their first four drives (and they really should have scored on the fourth drive as well).

Drive 1:
1st and 10 at SL 26:(14:56) M.Bulger pass deep right to T.Holt pushed ob at SEA 36 for 38 yards
1st and 10 at SEA 36:(14:34) S.Jackson right end to SEA 36 for no gain
2nd and 10 at SEA 36:(13:59) M.Bulger pass short left to J.Klopfenstein to SEA 27 for 9 yards 3rd and 1 at SEA 27:(13:20) M.Hedgecock up the middle to SEA 25 for 2 yards
1st and 10 at SEA 25:(12:41) M.Bulger pass short left to T.Holt to SEA 20 for 5 yards
2nd and 5 at SEA 20:(12:05) S.Jackson left guard to SEA 12 for 8 yards
1st and 10 at SEA 12:(11:24) (Shotgun) S.Jackson right guard to SEA 10 for 2 yards
2nd and 8 at SEA 10: (10:44) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short left to I.Bruce to SEA 4 for 6 yards
3rd and 2 at SEA 4:(10:03) PENALTY on SL-O.Pace, False Start, 5 yards
3rd and 7 at SEA 9: (9:42) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short left to T.Holt for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Drive 1 Summary: 5 pass, 4 rush

Drive 2:
1st and 5 at SL 28:(4:19) S.Jackson right guard to SL 31 for 3 yards
2nd and 2 at SL 31:(3:45) S.Jackson right guard to SL 32 for 1 yard
3rd and 1 at SL 32:(3:05) M.Bulger pass deep right to J.Klopfenstein to SEA 40 for 28 yards
1st and 10 at SEA 40:(2:23) M.Bulger pass short right to S.Jackson to SEA 35 for 5 yards
2nd and 5 at SEA 35:(1:44) S.Jackson right guard to SEA 26 for 9 yards
1st and 10 at SEA 26:(1:10) M.Bulger pass incomplete short right to M.Hedgecock
2nd and 10 at SEA 26:(1:03) S.Jackson up the middle to SEA 23 for 3 yards
3rd and 7 at SEA 23:(:27) (Shotgun) M.Bulger pass short right to I.Bruce pushed ob at SEA 15 for 8 yards
1st and 10 at SEA 15:(15:00) S.Jackson left tackle to SEA 9 for 6 yards
2nd and 4 at SEA 9:(14:25) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to SEA 5 for 4 yards
1st and 5 at SEA 5:(13:47) S.Jackson up the middle to SEA 2 for 3 yards
2nd and 2 at SEA 2:(13:06) S.Jackson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Drive 2 Summary: 5 pass, 7 rush

Drive 3:
M.Bulger pass short right to S.Jackson to SEA 34 for 8 yards
2nd and 2 at SEA 34:(5:35) S.Jackson up the middle to SEA 33 for 1 yard
3rd and 1 at SEA 33:(4:50) S.Jackson right tackle to SEA 29 for 4 yards
1st and 10 at SEA 29:(4:08) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt to SEA 12 for 17 yards
1st and 10 at SEA 12:(3:26) S.Jackson left tackle to SEA 10 for 2 yards
2nd and 8 at SEA 10:(2:47) M.Bulger pass short right to T.Holt for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Drive 3 Summary: 3 pass, 3 rush

Total offensive balance: 13 pass, 14 rush

Our defense didn't know, at any particular point, what type of play would be coming at them. Would it be Stephen Jackson running hard down the middle of the field? Would it be a quick route to Isaac Bruce? Would it be a deep ball to uber-receiver Tory Holt? We had no idea, and it showed. We were completely on our heels.

Then....... their offense slowed down. Sure, we can take some defensive credit for that, but here's the balance summary for drives after the third touchdown.

Total offensive balance: 23 pass, 5 rush

Bam.

I was at a sports bar, talking to a genial Rams fan the entire game, and we both were amazed by how the Rams forgot that they had Stephen Jackson around to carry the football in the second half. Remember, most of those plays were chosen with a lead. They only had two drives where they were behind, and one of them only took two plays before Tatupu picked off Bulger. Our theory was that Mike Martz REALLY wanted back into this rivalry and was controlling the Rams coaches telepathically from Detroit. No other explanation made sense.

But, seriously, this was absolutley stupid. Suddenly, our defense knew how to handle the Rams offense. Blitz, blitz, blitz. And blitz. 4 times during those 23 pass plays, with an interception to boot. These were the Rams that we knew and loved from previous years, and, thus, we knew what to do. I have absolutely NO IDEA what got into Scott Linehan, but I have a theory. There's something about having these nice pretty offensive weapons like Bulger, Bruce, and Holt. You want to play with them. They're exciting, and you REALLY want to use them when it seems like everything is clicking. This is also BAD Holmgren syndrome. This was a LARGE part of how the Hawks got back into this ballgame after being squashed for an entire half.

-- On the flip side, Bad Holmgren showed up to play in the first half, with predictable results:

1st half offensive balance for Seattle: 16 pass, 5 rush

That's pathetic. Morris had a total of 2 yards, and the Rams were just blitzing everyone because they knew that Hasselback was passing. FOR SURE.

So Holmgren gets mad at the entire team (hopefully including himself) at the half and.... VOILA!! Brand spanking new offense (best show of the early season).

2nd half offensive balance: 24 pass, 21 rush

All of a sudden Morris has 70 yards, we rush for over 100 yards for the game, and the offense clicks. This isn't rocket science, people. The Hawks aren't the Colts. Heck, the Colts aren't even the Colts this year until Addai comes into his own. You need to have balance in the NFL, or else defenses will eat you alive. We had balance. We scored a lot of points. It's that simple. Hasselbeck, all of a sudden, looked calm and collected again. The pass protection actually held up. Receivers were getting open. It clicked. Now we can only hope that Holmgren continues this against the Vikings next Sunday, even without Shaun (it looks like we're without him for another two weeks, according to Pro Football Talk). It's the only way for our offense to succeed.

-- Game ball to Deion Branch, who was worth a first round draft pick today, my friends. He was all that and a bag of chips, catching the hard balls, being a deep threat down the field, and looking like the gamebreaking #2 receiver that we have never had. Outstanding performance.

-- Real game ball goes to Tory Holt, who was unconscious today. Just an unbelievable performance by someone who seems to always find an extra gear against the Hawks.

-- We had no sound for the game in the sports bar, so I honestly thought the game was over after the illegal formation penalty against the Hawks. Trust me when I say that you might have seen a grown man close to tears if that had held up.

-- Bestest sight of the game? Scott Linehan getting crunched. The Rams fan chuckled and said, "Good thing he was wearing his headset." My response, "Kinda wish it would have happened to Holmgren. Seems like that would have been funnier."

-- We still need Stevens back. Badly. Hopefully he will be ready to go by Sunday, since it was a surprise that he was scratched for this game.

-- Can we find a punter, anywhere in the United States, who knows how to be consistent with his punts? Anyone? This can't be that complicated, people. I refuse to believe that.

-- To those of us who were complimenting the Seahawks secondary after the first two weeks.... the fun is over. Trufant and Herndon? Owch.

-- To those of us who were complimenting Chris Spencer after his sub in week 2..... the fun is over. Spencer? Owch.

However, big props to Josh Brown, who has done us consistently proud after missing the potential game winner in Washington last year. That field goal would have been good from 60. No question.

Any other thoughts? Tell me. This was a game that vaulted us into a solid lead in the NFC West, and back into contention for home-field advantage (the only other 5-1 team is the ultra-surprising Saints). Let's take care of business at home, Hawks. We should beat the Vikings, if we don't let down after a very emotional win.

The Scientific Method: Week 6

2006-10-14T10:30:00.000-07:00

My laptop has been malfunctioning for the last couple of months, due to some chip inside not reading that I have plugged it into the wall, and only draining the battery. That has sucked, because the only other computer I own was built in 1999 and has about 7,493 viruses cohabitating inside its mainframe.

Thus, I finally called HP the other day to inqure about getting my laptop fixed. I was greeted by a nice gentleman named, "Mike". I put the name in quotation marks because if his name was Mike, MY name was Lu Chow Sun. "Mike", for some strange reason, sounded EXACTLY like a guy from India, with a raging accent to boot, meaning that I couldn't understand a large portion of the words coming out of his mouth. It took me about fifteen minutes to convince him that the problem was inside the laptop and not due to the battery or AC adaptor (I knew this since I have two of both and everything doesn't work with the laptop), and I was put on hold to speak with shipping about sending my laptop to them to be fixed. Ah yes. This was also after he was programmed to ask me several questions about my personal life while the computer futzed around.

"Ah..... you work?"

"What?"

"Work. You do work?"

"Um, kind of. I'm a graduate student. In America."

(Silence)

"You studies, they going well?"

"What?"

"Are you having some good studies?"

"Sure. Can we talk about my computer?"

"That will be $398.42."

So, after being on hold for a half-hour, I hung up, only to get called back by "Bob", who ALSO surprisingly sounded like he lived half a world away. I won't go into that conversation, but, end of story, I either agreed to have them fix my computer or marry my first-born son to the daughter of the night-shift supervisor. We'll find out in due time.

As for football, the Scientific Method once again rocked said kasbah last week with a sparkling 12-2 mark, only marred by the Cardinals finding the 1 in 19 chance of losing that game after leading 14-0 at home to a team led by Damon Huard, and Brett Favre handing the Rams their SECOND luck win of the season. BUT THEIR DEFENSE IS AWESOME!!!!

More on that during the picks:

Sunday:
Buffalo at Detroit
Well, now, here's a FUN game to begin the journey into Week 6. McGahee! Losman! Kitna! Jones! Naked Guy! Ivy Leaguer! It's the NFL, baby! I shudder to think about how many yards McGahee might get against that atrocious Detroit defense. I also shudder to think about how close the Lions have been to winning games the last couple of weeks (one week against St. Louis, tards). Basically, a lot of shuddering. How do you pick that which has no talent? On other side? I know how. Through science. To the observatory!!!
Scientific Pick: Buffalo

Carolina at Baltimore
Thank you, Steve McNair, for futzing up a winnable game on Monday night in Denver. You played terribly, which FINALLY exposed that offense as NOT REALLY THAT GOOD. Carolina has played just well enough to win the last three weeks, barely eking a home game past Cleveland. Oof. Again, not a fun game to pick, since both defenses should handle either offense pretty handily. I guess it'll come down to turnovers, which, surprisingly, leads me to pick.....
Scientific Pick: Baltimore

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay actually looked decent last week, as Cadillac Williams showed up and Bruce Gradkowski, while not awesome, didn't suck. This, however, is Cincy, fresh off a humiliating loss to the Patriots and a bye week to stew. Will they allow Williams 150 yards on the ground? Sure, that running defense is pitiful. Will Carson Palmer and that offense be stopped for another week? All signs point to absolutely not, you idiot.
Scientific Pick: Cincinnati

Houston at Dallas
Houston's passing defense reminds me of UW's passing defense the last couple of years. 3rd and 2. 3rd and 12. 3rd and 22. It didn't matter. Some safety or cornerback would get burned for the big gain down the field. Houston's pass rush has also been nonexistent, which is really the one sure way to stop Drew Bledsoe. If he has time to throw, which he should, he can pick apart a secondary, especially with the weapons at his disposal. Time for the Tony Romo rumours to get put on hold. Until NEXT Sunday.
Scientific Pick: Dallas

NY Giants at Atlanta
Ah, yes. Atlanta. Good ol' 3-1 Atlanta. With an option running game that, by now, opposing teams have seen for four weeks. What is the HUGE weakness of the Giants? Why, that would be the secondary, which is putrid. What is the HUGE weakness of the Falcons? Why, that would be the passing game, which is putrid. Hmmmm. Well, if the Giants weakness is nullified, leaving them to do everything they are actually good at, that bodes well for the Falcons to learn the meaning of overhyped once again.
Scientific Pick: NY Giants

Philadelphia at New Orleans
Look. Katrina was a tragedy, and it is a heartwarming story to see the New Orleans Saints give some joy to the entire community. But, honestly, people, enough is enough. They have beaten the Browns, the Packers, the Falcons (in their first home game), and the Tampa Bay Bucs, who were starting a newbie quarterback. That's about as unimposing a schedule as the St. Louis Rams. Philly, on the other hand, just beat the Cowboys and appears poised to assume control of the NFC East. Only one of these two teams, basically, is a top-tier team in the NFC.
Scientific Pick: Philly

Seattle at St. Louis
As Gavin wrote yesterday, I've been preparing all week to pick against the Seahawks. We seem to play horribly in St. Louis, even winning on a gift fumble last year by Shaun McDonald. However, I also want to spit in the eye of Bill Simmons, Vic Carucci, etc., who all believe that the Rams are awesome, with a hugely improved rushing game and overall defense. That's ridiculous. They have beaten, and I quote, the Broncos (who have played ONE good game this year), the Packers, the Lions, and the Cardinals. It took gift fumbles in TWO of those games to win, and they allowd the LIONS to score oodles of points. COME ON, PEOPLE!!! Yes, there is a chance we lose this game. But I refuse to include myself in the above category of individuals who believe that the Rams are for real.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Tennessee at Washington
Buh. Another crappy game in what really is a crappy week in the NFL. Basically, any game containing the Texans, Titans, or Lions should be decided by a Madden 2007 game played by both head coaches. That, at the very least, would have some more excitement attached to it. Oh no! Clinton Portis is virtually injured! Oh no! Vince Young has an overall rating of 81, not good enough to more the football against a Washington defense with a rating of 94! I'd watch. This game? Not so much.
Scientific Pick: Washington

Kansas City at Pittsburgh
There is much joy in my heart over the Steelers' 1-3 start. Much joy. That was the one game I was looking forward to last week, thanks to the Hawks bye, and I was not disappointed. HOWEVER. I am surely not going to pick against them when they are going up against a hurt Larry Johnson and Damon Huard. I don't like them, but I'm not stupid.
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

Miami at NY Jets
Double buh. Include this game as another Madden possibility. The only intriguing storyline here is if Joey Harrington can actually become a certified NFL quarterback. As for the Jets? They actually got exposed against the Jaguars, letting some of the fat loose from Eric Mangini's oversized noggin.
Scientific Pick: Miami

San Diego at San Francisco
Seriously. Why do all these games suck? This is pathetic.
Scientific Pick: San Francisco

Oakland at Denver
Well, well, well. Oakland in yet another prime-time game. Good job, masters of scheduling. You were on the ball this time. Everyone wants to see Andrew Walters attempt to move the football against Champ Bailey. Everyone wants to see Art Shell "coach" on the sideline. Everyone wants to hear another three hours of, "Jake Plummer just doesn't look right" comments.
Scientific Pick: Denver

Monday:
Chicago at Arizona
If the Cards can't run the ball against St. Louis, do you really think they will run the ball against Chicago? If the Cards can't stop Damon Huard, do you really think they will stop Rex Grossman? If Joey Sunshine can't shut up for any amount of time whatsoever, is it legal for Tony Kornheiser to actually gag him and stuff him in a locker for the remainder of the season?
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Still Nervous

2006-10-14T10:16:00.000-07:00

Gavin's optimism is reassuring, even if his best reasons are why the Rams stink. All my hope rest in what I've seen these teams play like in the past, not what they've showed my so far. The thought of losing this game makes me sick to my stomach. Not that I think we'll lose. But still...

I've got eels in my gut because :: Matt didn't trust his protection against the Bears. Yes he's been sacked a lot early this season, but he's also bailing when Morris does, in fact, pick up the blitz. If he's still running gun-shy and making poor decisions against the Ram's "pass rush", it won't matter how poorly the Ram's secondary plays or how awesome our receivers are.
On the flip side :: If Matt has time (and our O-line is playing like we know it can against underwhelming defensive ends and linebackers) then there's no problem. We're up 14 at halftime.

My vision blurs and my hands shake at the thought of :: using the past as a predictor. The truth is, we don't know what's going to happen Sunday. Furthermore, as fans, we're uniquely equipped to be able to do absolutely nothing about it. We can't change the outcome of a game. They can't hear me when I shout at the TV. We went to the Superbowl last year, the Rams did not. They are first in the NFC West, we are not. We both have a couple lucky wins in our picnic basket and whoever wins this game will go a long way in establishing the truth of whose division this is. We have yet to play consistently like NFC champions. Can we? Duh. But will we? I don't want to think about it.
On the flip side :: It's only game five for the Hawks. We have three wins no one can take away. Even if we had to wait 'till the last play to beat the Lions without reaching the endzone. This is the most difficult game of all our divisional matchups. So if this is it, the supreme challenge we'll receive in our divisional play... bah! Fey laughter! This could turn out as well as the Carolina game last winter that I had to watch on tape because Kazakhstan is too cold and flat for TV signals to be broadcast well. We have the far superior talent. Let's play like it.

The bottom line is :: the Rams are not the Bears. I'm confident Mo Mo will have a great game (check last weeks run D for the Rams) which, combined with Stevens being available as a target over the middle again, opens up tons of opportunities for us to score early and often. Our D may not be able to prevent the big play, but the Rams seem to turn the ball over just as often. Occasional big plays are no match for the breakout game I see Mo Mo and a very pissed Seahawks offence having tomorrow. Seahawks by 10.

Week Five: Hawks at Insanely Lucky CrapHeap (St Louis)

2006-10-13T14:49:00.000-07:00

Ok. Here's the deal. This game is being overhyped. I know it. You, our faithful five readers, know it. Even Colin, who apparently has taken a much-needed hiatus from blogging (probably to return and actually make sense when he writes) knows it.

THE RAMS ARE 4-1!! The world is going agog over these Rams and their brilliant record, Bill Simmons is lactating in excitement over picking that St Louis had a chance to do well with an early schedule that included San Francisco, Green Bay, Detroit and Arizona. You think? An inebriated monkey could pick that they should be over .500 (I would have said 3-2, with losses against Denver and Arizona). Scott Linehan is already being fitted for his vestments, but seriously, the man is touched by the good Lord, because there is some serious prayer holding this crappy team together. I'm not even going to address this game in my normal fashion. You know why? Because I'm not that concerned.

Why should I be pessimistic? Well, I suppose that starts with the health of our offensive line, that Shaun Alexander and Bobby Engram could be out. Also Colin LOVES to talk about his "house of horrors" theory, he'll drone about that stupid thing forever if given the chance. (Yes, I'm trying to take a few cheap shots at Colin here... he keeps on having insanely good weeks with his picks and I have to get them in somewhere) Apparently the Dome in St Louis contains some magic pixie dust within that attaches itself to the brain of Matt Hasselbeck when ingested and forces him to throw the ball directly to Wil Witherspoon instead of Jerramy Stevens. I don't know, it's stupid, ask him for more explanation.

There are probably a few more reasons to be concerned about this one, and I'll get into the stats here in a sec, but I want to focus on why I am fully convinced that I'm going to pull up my recliner on Sunday and watch a nice Hawks win.

For starters, the Rams record is a total mirage. I have NEVER seen a luckier team in my short, painful existence on planet Earth. They do everything they can to lose games against bad teams, only for those teams to blow it at the end. Let's take a quick peek at three "wins" the Rams totally backed into...

1. at Arizona (win 16-14)
I think we can all agree that the Cardinals are not exactly defensive stalwarts. Well, the Rams averaged a resounding 2.3 yards per rush and were actually OUTGAINED on the ground by the Cardinals (which should never happen... ever). The Rams were actually up 16-7 at the beginning of the 4th quarter, at which point they promptly gave up a 16 play 87 yard drive for a touchdown, which included some atrocious red zone defense (allowing Edgerrin James to basically finish the final 25 yards). Then, the Rams, instead of being able to ice it, FUMBLE (read the articles and it sounds like the Rams never turn the ball over... ever) on their own 30. The Cardinals move the ball into field goal range, Kurt Warner fumbles himself, game over. This should not have been considered a win.

2. Detroit (win 41-34)
If there's one thing we can all agree on, it's that Detroit's offense has not looked tremendously powerful these first few weeks. Just look at the scoreboard and tell me how impressive that Rams team is. St Louis got lucky again, converting only 4 of their 13 third down opportunities, and basically capitalizing on Detroit being morons and turning the ball over three times, which led to at least 10 Rams points.

3. at Green Bay (win 23-20)
This game almost made me physically ill. No one who watched this game should consider the Rams a good football team, of course the national media didn't which is why they're getting so much love. Green Bay (which S-U-C-K-S) was a significantly better team. Vernand Morency gift wrapped the first touchdown courtesy of being an awful running back, and then, once benched, was replaced by Noah Herron (this week's winner of the "who the hell is that?" fantasy performance) who ran 20 times for 106 yards. That's right... Noah "who the hell am I" Herron ran for over FIVE YARDS A FRIGGIN' CARRY. Then, just like against the Cardinals, the Packers have the ball inside field goal range, fumble it away, and the Rams get to feel good about losing to a better team.

I don't understand this. The Rams should AT LEAST be 2-3, and Bill Simmons should be regretting ever calling them a sleeper.

With all that said, here are a few more reasons we should feel good about ourselves.

1. Jerramy Stevens is back. If we don't have Shaun in the red zone, we'll at least have our best passing option, who hopefully can hold on to the damn ball. Remember, Stevens had a huge game last year against the Rams, who apparently thought he was a streaker or a harmless bunny on a few touchdown routes.

2. We are pissed. Think back to how the NY Giants came out and physically dominated the Redskins last Sunday. The Rams are due to suck, and we are due to come out and own a good team.

3. Don't believe the hype about the Rams rushing attack. Against Green Bay was the second time this season they've been unable to punch it in from first and goal at the one. They are 30th in the league in FO's Stuffed rank (of course we're at 29... but #3 in Power Success, another indicator that we're not as far away as Art Thiel thinks from being a better offensive team), and remember, they have only played one legitimate defense all year (Denver) and struggled there.

4. Yes, I'm concerned about Torry Holt. We have had problems with the deep ball so far this year. It's always a concern when you play St Louis, but they've taken many of these plays out of their normal offense. The Rams rarely looked down the field against the Packers, content with short "safe" passes, that if Green Bay linebackers could actually hold on to interceptions, would have resulted in at least three. Here's the good news. Against #1 WRs (and we've played some good ones), the Hawks have an insane -67.0% DVOA, #2 in the league. In other ways, we can gameplan effectively to remove Holt as a weapon. We've done it multiple times at this point. We're #10 in the league against the #2 (and 30th against the #3... go Kelly Herndon, who normally covers the slot).

5. The Rams defense is still bad. The defensive line isn't stopping anyone, as evidenced by ranking 32nd (out of 32 teams) in Stuffed, only halting teams in general rushing scenarios 12.7% of the time. This is absurdly terrible. If we decide to run on first down all game, we have an 87% chance of it being a positive gain. The Hawks, by the way, Stuff the opposing team 30.6% of the time (although we haven't been able to stop an opposing team yet in a Power Success scenario).

Yes, it is a tough divisional opponent. Yes, it is probably our toughest divisional game of the year. Yes, we may lose. However, we are not even close to the Rams from a talent level. They are playing way above their heads and it will catch up to them. Hopefully that will be on Sunday. I think we'll win by double digits.

Ultimate Explosion!! - Week Five in Review

2006-10-10T14:17:00.000-07:00

I don't think I would be a very good TV analyst. For some reason that job needs to filled by loud and large former jocks who eschew analysis for "analysis", which mainly involves making grandiose claims about players and teams without it needing to make sense. For example, ESPN.com is starting a "Five Burning Questions" feature with a few of their empty suits. This week's fun includes the following questions...

1. Are the Pittsburgh Steelers done?
2. Can anyone beat the Chicago Bears in the NFC?

For starters, can anyone tell me what the hell a "Burning Question" is? When did the word "burning" become an adjective? Is it because "flaming" has some, shall we say, different connotations right now? Can't call it a "Flaming Question"? I'm sure this is supposed to add a level of urgency to these questions, but it's moderately retarded because... well... it's Week Five.

Also, apparently they have five year old interns writing their "Burning Questions". The creativity (or lack thereof) is almost frightening. Last time I checked, the Steelers had 3 losses. That means they have a chance (albeit a small one) to be 13-3. And for anyone to claim, as basically ALL the pundits do, that the Bears have completely sewn up a Super Bowl spot, is so ridiculous that it literally kills brain cells. That's right... ESPN has succeeded in actually making people dumber through their "expert analysis". I could get completely drunk right now (and, to be honest, Merril Hoge often makes we crave a Fat Tire) and do less damage to my cognitive faculties than reading this gibberish.

Anyways, back to the week in review. This was a week that didn't include the Seahawks, which meant I got to watch a lot of football with very little emotional involvement. The Scientific Method, whose goal this year is to apparently avoid all forms of criticism by friggin' walking on water with his picks, went out and cleaned up... again.

Week Five Results:
Scientific Method: 12-2
Petey Prisco: 11-3
Bill Simmons: 10-4

Season Standings:
Scientific Method: 54-20 (54-20! What in the world is going on here!)
Petey Prisco: 47-27
Bill Simmons: 41-33

What in the World Were They Smoking?

I think what's obvious at this point in the season is that there are very few upsets in the league. In general, teams are taking care of business, even if it's close. For example, this past week the Rams eked out the win over the Packers, the Saints eked out over the Bucs, the Colts (AGAIN) eked out over the Titans. As such, the prognosticators who are picking it relatively safe are being rewarded. It also is definitely the case (same as last year) that there are some BAD teams and some GOOD teams, and not many in between. With the recent explosion in the salary cap, more teams who draft well are able to keep their talent, supporting their longevity. In other words, if you have a bad talent evaluator, it kills your team for years. I don't know if the NFL has seen anything like this before, and to all those MLB purists who point to all the recent new World Series winners... screw you.

The long and short of it is that there really isn't much to criticize. Yeah, Colin picked Matt Leinart in his first start, which is always a dicey proposition, but he did so against Kansas City and Damon Huard. Not exactly a sure thing from KC's standpoint, and it needed quite the Arizona collapse to come back and steal the victory. Brett Favre fumbled away Colin's other miss... he was that close to being 14-0. Stupid Favre.

The worst pick of the week was Bill Simmons' selection of the NY Jets over the Jaguars, which screamed "juggernaut loss". Never NEVER NEVER take a young promising team on the road against a solid defense and a good team in the middle of a two game losing skid. Of course I didn't mind this game, since Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew both got tons of fantasy points, cementing my victory of Colin (a preordained conclusion, but nonetheless gratifying). I don't understand Simmons sometimes. He talks a good game, about recognizing strengths and weaknesses, but generally gets infatuated with one good game or another (see: America with Chicago Bears).

Best Picks of the Week

I don't know... there really weren't that many difficult games to predict. I suppose those (Colin, Prisco) who took the Giants over the Redskins or Philly over the Cowboys did well, but you're still taking the home favorites. Denver was just going to beat Baltimore. It was a boring week. Wake me up on Sunday.

Biggest Questions of the Week

Is there a luckier team in America right now than the St Louis Rams? Simmons has to be crowing about his bandwagon, but this team is not one, but TWO late game fumbles away from being 2-3. Their field goal kicker (Jeff Wilkins) is carrying my fantasy team by being on pace to obliterate the single season field goal record, but good teams do not have a field goal kicker on pace to obliterate the single season field goal record. They let Noah Herron (if you don't know who this is, don't worry about it, no one should) run 100 yards on them. They consistently let other teams back into games. They cannot punch the ball into the end zone when given first and goal on the one. This is not a good team, in fact they and the Ravens might be two of the worst 4-1 teams I have ever seen.

Speaking of the Ravens, Steve McNair finally didn't give the rabid ball washing fans a reason to shower more adulation on him last night in Denver. Let's face it, he has not played well in Baltimore. He is not giving them more than Kyle Boller did. He is missing open receivers, is not as mobile as he used to be, and, since Jamal Lewis can't run effectively anymore, doesn't have a running threat either to support his efforts. Overall, the Ravens again are going to depend on their defense, which means they are going to lose games, because the defense, although good, is not as indomitable as past years.

The lack of an offensive line in Arizona is finally gaining steam, a fact that brings much pleasure to the staff here at Crushed Optimists, who have been beating that drum essentially since the formation of this site. Edgerrin James is starting to sound like a man who is literally watching his Hall of Fame chances disappear before his eyes.

The Raiders are bad. Just bad.

The Jets and Bills are going to play well at home at times. They are decently well coached and have some aggression. On the road I wouldn't pick them ever.

Finally, what on earth is up with the Colts? They cannot put teams away, and you can't tell me they can afford this... the defense isn't improved, and there is no way one has to come back in the 4th quarter against the Titans. Not good. I'd be hitting the panic button when it comes to long term success if I was Tony Dungy, regardless of being 5-0. Luckily, there isn't a single team in the AFC that looks better.

Most Impressive Performances of the Week

The Bears beat another bad team, which is something we're going to get used to during the course of this season.

Probably the most impressive performace I saw was that of the Giants, who took an improved Redskins team behind the woodshed. Eli Manning was actually crisp and did great, especially on 3rd down, Tiki Barber got the running game going, and that defense, which looked so bad against us, shut down Mark Brunell and the Redskins offense. For a must-win game, for a team that looked on the brink of splitting down the seams, this was an inspired performance.

Donovan McNabb's performance was decent, but is being seriously overrated. The Eagles defense was much better, especially the blitz schemes, which (as always true with Jim Johnson) were creative and played to the specific weaknesses inherent in the Dallas offense. Still, if I was a Dallas fan I would be incredibly pissed off about that loss. The Cowboys, in my opinion, outplayed the Eagles. They had a chance to tie that game at the end, and if not for those big pass plays would have completely dominated. The Eagles had about six HUGE plays go their way (the punter having the ball go through his hands, the Drew Bledsoe fumble on the next possession, the 60 yard pass to LJ Smith, the 80 yard touchdown to Hank Baskett, the 40 yard flea flicker to Reggie Brown, and the final interception in the end zone). Out of the 38 points put up by Philadelphia, all 38 came out of these plays. The Eagles could not sustain a single drive down the field ALL GAME. The flea flicker should have been intercepted. No way that pass should have been completed. Anyways, I'm not buying the Eagles love after this game. If anything, I'm a bigger believer in the Cowboys. I think Dallas is the best team in the NFC East right now.

Next week the Hawks get to introduce St Louis to what a real team looks like... without fumbles.

Rampant Speculation!

2006-10-10T08:45:00.000-07:00

Sometimes I wonder if I made the right choice in not owning a TV. Like every Sunday for the last month or so. Then I see all the retarded speculation about Pinella and A-Rod and all the "What went wrong?" stories are STILL the main headlines, and I am again justified. I also hate John Kruk.

I do enjoy the odd sound bite I get out of Pinella every once in a while with all this attention. He does great interviews, let me tell you.
Reporter: "Yankees. Rampant speculation. New York. Your thoughts?"
Lou: "Is that a question?"
Reporter: "No seriously, are you moving to New York to manage a certain team I'm contractually obligated to blather on and on about even if they suck?"
Lou: "#$%@ you."

My favorite piece of rampant speculation is this, found in our own Seattle PI. Something about trading Beltre for A-Rod and $2.5 million.
Whatever.
It's Rams week.
Let's put the focus back where it belongs--not on Ichiro's backstory, Oklahoma City, or the Yucking Fanks, but on the NFC CHAMPION Seahawks. (UW football being a decent 2nd)

Will our secondary stand up to the enigmatic Bulger and Rams receiving corps?
Will Mo Mo carry my fantasy team to glory?
Will our offensive line play like it did against the Bears... or the Giants? How are those injuries coming along anyhow?
Will Kaz miss multiple tackles, beating backs to the hole but closing his eyes and covering his face in the fetal position at the critical moment? Speaking of baseless speculation: Goodness I hope he starts. Right in the middle.
Will Haselback be compared to Favre: 2005 edition or Favre: Norse legend?
Will I ever work again as a cabinet maker?
Will I attend a meeting of bloggers (balding single men with paunches) about the Mariners and pay for it?
Will Calculon's evil twin brother ever walk again?

Speculate people.

Lack of Gloating Posts Disturbs Me...

2006-10-09T14:30:00.000-07:00

There is an unusally light smattering of posts in the Mariner blogosphere dealing with the best story of the weekend, that being the Yankees getting themselves eliminated again, and A-Rod choking again. I know Colin has become a weak-kneed pansy about A-Rod, and so "feels bad" for how it's turned out for him, but I still like watching him suck. So I'm a bitter, cynical jerk. If you've read this site for long enough that shouldn't come as much of a surprise.

Frankly, I feel the comparatively easy series win for the Tigers proves a fairly standard baseball thesis when it comes to roster creation... good pitching beats good hitting. The Yankees (hopefully you've all seen the stats so I don't need to take the three minutes to Google them) were arguably the best offensive lineup in the history of the game. The Tigers had Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Jeremy Bonderman. I would ask all M's sites who take their offseason analysis a lot more seriously than we do to keep this series in mind when attempting to create their personal "Bavasi plans" and to encourage the M's to think "pitching pitching pitching" and avoid "Jim Edmonds".

The bad news for the M's with the Yanks loss is that they will probably be far more interested themselves in some of the free agent arms on the market. Barry Zito is already being fitted for the stripes, and the posting numbers for Dice-K might be more astronomical than previously thought. Jason Schmidt is, at this point, the only free agent frontline starter who I think the M's really have the edge on (note: this would be called pure speculation... never trust me as an insider, I will lead you far astray).

Oh... and go Huskies! That game against USC was another highlight. Yes, you lost, but man, did you look good in doing so. Now you get to dominate the weaklings from Oregon State (to OSU alum who read this post, I'm sorry, your team sucks) and really start reestablishing UW's upper echelon status in the Pac-10. Not too shabby, Ty Willingham. Can't wait for next season and Jake Locker.

The Scientific Method, Week 5

2006-10-06T00:30:00.000-07:00

Don't worry people. I won't tell anyone they suck donkey balls this week. Unless it's Nathan. Again.

Actually, first I wish to discuss why anyone would actually call those telephone flirt call lines. You know, the ones that continually advertise during Adult Swim and late hour South Park reruns (aside: excellent season premiere by Matt and Troy. uber-cool, guys, and this praise comes from an absolute noob in the World of Warcraft.)? I mean, first, you have to be extremely lonely. That's obvious. Or 12. Second, you have to be under some kind of false impression that the person texting you is, at the very least, semi-attractive. And a woman. Both of those could very well be false. Third, you have to enjoy texting, which, I admit, I've never found the love for. Something about typing messages with my phone pad instead of just taking the two seconds to tell the person. Fourth, you must imagine that this "flirting" could result in an actual relationship, with real displays of affection and everything. Here's some advice. You will find better success at a Star Trek convention, my friends.

I also want to mention that, after reaching the championship round in fantasy baseball, the US Women's Curling Team was destroyed, thanks to key injuries to Liriano, Pedro, Kazmir, and the rest of my pitching staff, leaving me with depending on Scott Olsen, Estaban Loiaza, and Josh Beckett. Ah well. Better luck next year. Speaking of next year, see you then, Dodgers, Padres, and Twins. Are the Tigers really the ONLY team that could tie the series at a game apiece? What happened to the hottest teams out there in the Dodgers and Twins? I mean, sure, the Padres suck, and no one expected them to beat the hapless Cards, who will, in turn, lose to the Mets or the Dodgers, but seriously, people, I sure thought the Twins would have a little more spark to them. They're lost the improved offense that actually carried them to these playoffs.

And..... that's all I can bring myself to write about the baseball postseason so far.

Week 4 was the first down week for the SM, so I expect a rebound week..... to 10 right instead of 9. Bring it on, NFL!!

Sunday:
Buffalo at Chicago
I mean, I guess I could pick against Chicago this week based purely on spite, but I see no way to actually rationalize a Buffalo pick here. Anyone really believe that JP Losman will waltz into Chi-town and pick apart the Chicago defense? Can Willis McGahee pick up the tough yards? Is that Buffalo defense up to the task of stopping Rex Grossman?
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Cleveland at Carolina
This is a very similar type of pick. Again, I WANT Carolina to lose. I would PREFER it to happen. But how? Charlie Frye throwing to a healthy Joe Jurevicius? Steve Smith breaking both legs and also breaking Jake Delhomme in half? There definitely seems to be a more skewed talent distribution in the NFL this year. Some real haves/have nots in a way that the salary cap was supposed to control for.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Detroit at Minnesota
Minnesota followed up a valiant effort against the Bears with a huge loss on the road against Buffalo, a game they desperately needed to try and gain traction in the NFC playoff race. Meanwhile, Detroit's offense finally showed up against the Rams, scoring at will in the second half. Unfortunately, that Detroit defense still hasn't shown up since Week 1, letting basically every team imaginable score 40 points on it.
Scientific Pick: Minnesota

Miami at New England
Words cannot express how disappointing a team Miami is right now. Nick Saban was, I remember, supposed to be a genuis. How's that working out so far, Nick? That halfback toss your idea? The Dolphins haven't been outstanding against the run, while New England has transformed into a rushing machine, with pick-your-spot passing by Brady (except against Denver, where they were destroyed, not a coincidence). If Belichick can confuse Carson Palmer, you can be darn sure he can confuse the eminently confusable Daunte Culpepper, who should really stick to playing Madden 2007 with Chad Johnson until he gets his talent back.
Scientific Pick: New England

St. Louis at Green Bay
St. Louis is now 3-1, winning against Denver, Arizona (thanks to Kurt Warner fumbling), and Detroit. The defense is getting worse and the offense is getting better. Green Bay has already lost two games at home, and is coming off another stinker on national television. However, even when the Rams were good, they had the habit of blowing 1-2 easy games on the road, like against Miami two years ago. This has all the makings of a trap game, where Brett Favre will be lauded once again for how awesome he is. Oh, and one Isaiah Kacyvenski is now actually playing LINEBACKER for the Rams. HA!
Scientific Pick: Green Bay

Tampa Bay at New Orleans
An old scientific method standby is to never pick a rookie quarterback making his first start, especially on the road, and especially when they are surrounded by little to no talent whatsoever. New Orleans has impressed me so far. I don't think they are elite, but they sure don't suck, and that's more then you can say so far for the Bucs, even with Chris Simms. Chucky goes home disappointed once again.
Scientific Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee at Indianapolis
What do you expect me to write here? Tennessee winning behind the brilliant passing of Uncle Rico? Peyton Manning allowing the vaunted Titans defense to bait him into several key interceptions?
Scientific Pick: Indy

Washington at NY Giants
The Giants have been now officially declared down and out by various pundits, including myself, of the playoff hunt. The team seems to be in a tad disarray, while Washington is rising to the forefront of the NFC East. However, that Redskins passing defense has been atrocious, while you know that the Giants will pour everything they got into this game. Lose this one, and the season really might be over.
Scientific Pick: NY Giants

Kansas City at Arizona
Remember that rule I JUST stated about three paragraphs ago? About never going with a quarterback making his first start, surrounded by less than stellar talent? Sure would seem to hold true here as well, with Matt Leinart, the savior of Phoenix, finally granted the offensive reins to the Cardinals. Here's the thing, though. Damon Huard? Being awesome two weeks in a row? Second, if any defense will allow Edge to do some damage on the ground, it's the Kansas City Chiefs. Really shouldn't do this, but....
Scientific Pick: Arizona

NY Jets at Jacksonville
Sure, yeah, so the Jets are now super awesome and everyone is fawning over Mangini and his magic. Except that they are, what 1-3? They're still losing these games, people, and the Jaguars will be tough to stop coming off two huge losses on the road.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville

Oakland at San Francisco
Buh. Why do these games always end up near the bottom of the post? I'm already tired, since I'm nearing the end, and I'm running out of awesome stuff to say. I'm not funny anymore, and people are skimming. Should I say that a friend will not say never, cause the welcome will not end? Though it's hard to let you go, to the Father's hands we know, that a lifetimes not too long to live as friends? Should I say that? Should I say that affection exchange theory (AET) is a nomothetic-deductive theory whose principal purpose is to explain why human beings communicate affection to each other, and with what consequences (Floyd, Judd, & Hesse, 2006)? Hmmm?
Scientific Pick: San Francisco

Dallas at Philadelphia
See, the thing with this game is, that there really aren't any interesting storylines attached to this one. So Drew Bledsoe might need another good start of he might get benched? Um.... McNabb is having an MVP season? How about the ongoing injury problems of Brian Westbrook? See? I can't think of anything. Wait...... something's coming to me........ something........ important..........

Can't. Quite. Remember.

Need. To. Watch. More. ESPN.

Espeically. Rachel. Nichols. Wow. Does. She. Have. An. Intense. Dye. Job. With. Her. Hair.

I. Mean. Seriously. No. One. Else. Has. Noticed. This?

They. Should. Replace. Her. With. The. 2006. US. Women's. Curling. Team.

What was I talking about? Remembering....... something...........

Sh*t. More about him?
Scientific Pick: Philly

Pittsburgh at San Diego
At least we now know why John and Al have changed to putting player's faces on a skyscraper. Lord knows NBC has already hired the face to put on the horse trailer. And no, I'm not talking about Jerome Bettis. Though....... no. No.
Scientific Pick: San Diego

Monday:
Baltimore at Denver
A 5-0 Baltimore team would cause me to believe that truth and justice were just figments of my imagination.
Scientific Pick: Denver

Let the Rampant Baseball Speculation Begin!!

2006-10-05T14:07:00.000-07:00

I remember, not so long ago, when the moment M's regular season tickets went on sale, there I was, with a schedule already planned out, up at the ticket station purchasing 6-8 games. This past year? I think I went to two. Suffice it to say, I've tracked this team but am not a big enough fan to watch boring baseball and pay for the privilege. Now the offseason has begun, and the excitement of next year actually providing us a reason to care is already percolating. I have to admit I was fairly surprised at the speed of USSM's "What I Would Do This Offseason" post, not even waiting until the end of the division series... I must not have been the only one bored with September.

Then Bavasi (who I generally like, especially his handling of the farm system) and Mike Hargrove (uber-suck specialist) were brought back... and my excitement for next year is already at a minimum. Still, rampant speculation is fun.

While we're having fun, let's make a few ground rules.

1. Criticizing Mike Hargrove for overplaying washed up veterans for a season and then advocating bringing in Jim Edmonds is not cool. At this point you're pretty much setting Hargrove up to fail.

2. Criticizing "Benuardo" seems a little stupid after a two month sample. Don't we "statheads" tend to live in a world of projections? How can we be so down on Broussard after being so high on him before? Doesn't he deserve a little longer of a shot?

3. Any offseason plan that doesn't involve Dice-K or Schmidt (preferably both) isn't even worth reading.

4. Rafael Soriano in rotation = okay. Mark Lowe in rotation = awesome. Nod to Dr. Detecto on this one. Either are significantly better than Cha Seung Baek or Jake Woods.

5. Make no reference to Jacque Jones, please, for the love of all that's holy.

Anyways, I'm really enjoying reading some thoughts already (like most of what USSM wrote, can't wait to see more from them), and this should be an exciting and pivotal offseason. The M's are on the brink of either setting up shop as a .500 team for 5 years or making a real playoff push. What Bavasi does will help determine that path. I can't wait (although since it's happening during football season, it gets about 10% of my attention span).

The Land O' Conclusions: Week 4

2006-10-04T15:33:00.000-07:00

I posted a quick conclusions post after Week One, as multiple orgasms were had over Mike Vick, the Cardinals, and the Ravens. Needless to say, some conclusions still seem accurate, aka the Ravens being 4-0, and some seem quite stupid, like Detroit's defense being a source of strength.

Perception in the NFL can change on a dime. Two weeks in, the Redskins looked done. The offense was terrible, Brunell couldn't find an open receiver, and even that defense was extremely unimpressive. Now? They are 2-2 and right back in the thick of things after a very impressive win over the Jags that was won with their offense against a great Jacksonville defense.

The Seahawks looked like the Super Bowl favorite after three weeks. Now you can easily claim that the Bears, the Eagles, and possibly the Falcons all have a better claim to NFC supremacy. That's what happens when you get whupped by over thirty points.

The Patriots were down and depressed, losing at home to the Broncos Week 3, then turned around and beat down the Bengals, on the road, Week 4.

I could give you a few more examples, but the fact remains that in the NFL, more than in ANY OTHER SPORT, perception of good/bad can change more on a game by game basis. That is why I wait until after Week 4 to reexamine our preseason playoff picture, including teams that have moved into probable playoff teams and others that have sunk into the no f'ing way category. Power rankings are nice and sweet and all that, but the NFL season is all about winning the Super Bowl. You don't win any award because Petey Prisco, the guys at ESPN, or even Pro Football Talk think you're the best team in the league. With that in mind, I'll go through both conferences, putting teams into the same four categories in the preseason and discussing various conclusions we can reach about each team four games into the season.

AFC (aka "The Good Conference")

No F'ing Way Teams: Oakland, Houston, Tennessee, Cleveland

The Oakland Raiders could very easily be called the worst team in the NFL. Art Shell's regime change hasn't yet set in, Andrew Walter is now the starting quarterback, Randy Moss suddenly isn't an impact player, and the defense allowed the Cleveland Browns to get back into the game last Sunday. The Texans, while better on offense, are simply terrible defensively, and have the Jags and Colts to deal with in their division. Same with the Titans, who can't do anything right. This should be it for Jeff Fisher, who has overstayed his welcome. Finally, Cleveland doesn't have the talent to remain with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincy, and, thus, realistically has zero chance of reaching the postseason. Only two wildcard teams per conference, fools.....

Only One Pig Will Fly: Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, NY Jets, Buffalo Bills

This category could also be called, "The AFC East", because all those teams, outside of New England, are decidedly mediocre.

The Dolphins are, hands down, the most disappointing team in the NFL to this point. They were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender. Instead, Culpepper has sucked, the offensive line has been terrible, and the defense can't stop anybody.

Bad Conclusion #1: The Jets are a playoff contender. Listen, they are a super fantastic story, and Mangini has infected them with some Belichick juice of something, but, again, they just aren't talented enough. They have zero running game (Kevin Barlow?), the defense, while improved, still can't stop the run, and they have a tendency to start extremely slow, forcing them to catch up.

As for the Chiefs and the Bills, again, the overall level of talent just doesn't rise to the "have" teams in the conference. Trent Green's injury has effectively killed the Chiefs chances, along with the retirement of Willie Roaf. JP Losman looks improved, but not a playoff quarterback by any means.

Probable Playoff Teams: San Diego, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Jacksonville, New England

While I have eight teams in my two playoff categories, I am fairly certain that the actual playoff six will come from this group, leaving one LARGE disappointment in the end (probably either Baltimore or Pittsburgh, because both wildcard teams sure aren't coming from that division).

Bad Conclusion #2: The Patriots championship hopes are back after a convincing win over Cincy. I just can't buy that, not with the offensive weapons at the Pats disposal. A team that is at least DECENT at stopping the run, aka anyone but Cincy, can force Brady to throw forty times to Gabriel, Caldwell, etc., which lowers the likelihood of a Pats victory. Will they make the postseason? Absolutely. No question. I would assume they will be the #3 seed once again.

San Diego, with a rookie quarterback, seems a tad overrated at the beginning of the season. That secondary isn't that great, and Phillip Rivers needs more seasoning before you can call him championship ready. The Steelers offense looks terrible, but I can't count them out after three games. They rose from the dead last year, and can very likely accomplish the same fact this year. Cincy and Baltimore have huge warts the Steelers can exploit. Speaking of Baltimore, I can't argue against 4-0, but I can't put them in the championship category. If they are 7-1 or 6-2 after 8 games, then we can talk, but that offense, even with McNair, doesn't exactly look explosive. Finally, Jacksonville finds ways to win games, and also finds ways to lose games, like against Washington, a game they really should have won.

Championship Caliber: Denver, Cincinnati, Indianapolis

Bad Conclusion #3: Time for Jay Cutler. People, Jake Plummer can win games, and has won several games while in a Denver uniform. Javon Walker finally looks comfortable, Tatum Bell will provide the necessary running spark, and that Denver defense looks phenomenal.

I am concerned about the rushing defense of BOTH Cincy and Indy, but these are the top two offenses in the NFL (in my humble opinion), and can easily outscore any opponent outside of New England.

NFC (The Junior Conference)

No F'ing Way: San Francisco, Detroit, Green Bay

Bad Conclusion #4: This was a mistake that I made this week, thinking that the 49ers offense was much improved. Um, no. Maybe at home, but Frank Gore still has to learn to hold onto the football, and Alex Smith throws the ball in some pretty weird spaces. Again, I love the work that is being done in San Francisco, but they will struggle to win 5 games. The Lions confused me after hanging with the Hawks in Week 1. Personally, I thought that meant they would contend for 7-8 wins. Instead, they have been throttled, smacked, and run over by the Bears, the Packers, and the Rams. Not exactly awesome-team-central (outside of the Bears, of course).

Bad Conclusion #5: You KNEW that once Brett Favre had a good game against the Lions, multiple media personalities would come out of the woodward and ooze love on how great Favre looks and how much longer he could probably play. Then he goes out on Monday Night, against Philly, and is terrible once again. Stop it, media. Stop it.

Only One Pig Will Fly: Arizona, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, NY Giants

The New York Giants!! Believe it. You can not say, with a straight face, that the Giants are better than the Redskins or the Eagles. Not with that secondary, and not with Eli playing like crap for three out of four quarters. And not with the entire team on the edge of a huge revolt against Tom Coughlin. No. Way. The only reason the Bucs are in this category is because of, I THINK, their defense, and because Jon Gruden is an excellent coach. The Rams might be 3-1, but they aren't, yet, a probable playoff team. Again, check with me after Week 8-9. Arizona is a disappointment once again, though Green is doing the right thing in putting Leinart out there. Let me learn this year and contend next year, with an actual offensive line.

Probable Playoff Teams: Minnesota, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta, Washington, Dallas

Due to the overall crapitude of the NFC, nine teams still remain viable playoff contenders, including all four teams from the NFC East. That was as predicted by most. The only real surprise here is the New Orleans Saints, who have ridden a wave of emotion and a real quarterback in Drew Brees to a nice 3-1 spot. They probably won't be in this category in four weeks, but I have to put them there for now. Minnesota might very likely not be in this category in four weeks, but they do get to play Detroit and Green Bay twice, which helps matters considerably.

Bad Conclusion #6: Steve Smith has been the difference for the Carolina Panthers
You can't argue with the fact that Smith makes the offense more potent. However, the side of the ball that is still letting the Panters down is the defense. Teams are consistently running on them, they let both the Bucs and the Saints back into games they had no business being in, and they generally look mediocre. This was supposed to be a gigantic strength for a championship team. Not yet.

Dallas and Washington, of course, have insanely difficult schedules and probably will hover around .500 for most of the season.

Championship Caliber Teams: Chicago, Philadelphia, Seattle

Yes, I'm drinking the McNabb Kool-Aid. He might be having the best season of his career so far, finding multiple weapons and changing Stallworth into a top-tier receiver. The Hawks continue to look deep and, whenever Shaun gets back, have an easy road into the postseason. But the Bears! Good night! They look dominant, and are the front-runner out of the NFC today. That passing attack has vaulted them into elite caliber, as they can beat you when the defense has an off day, like against Carolina last postseason.

Ultimate Explosion!! Week Four in Review

2006-10-04T13:45:00.000-07:00

The senior members of the Crushed Optimists staff (i.e. not Nach... otherwise known as the spelling retard of our crew) did take one day to mourn the recent whupping bestowed on our team by the Chicago contingent. I haven't been that depressed since... well... February. I could take a post and go through all the reasons why we shouldn't lose hope, but at the end of the day, we got utterly dominated on national television, and I had to friggin' watch Pink at the beginning (nice takedown on that one, Colin). Seriously, while she was "singing" and the large contingent of fans at my house were grimacing and questioning her sexual orientation, I came to a realization... that Pink could kick my ass (by the way, thanks to Alana Acheson for quickly agreeing with my assessment... didn't take her long to notice my complete lack of muscular definition). In which case, why on earth is she named Pink, instead of some WWE name like Ursula, Thunder Witch or Sheera? All those computer generated fans running into the street look like they're running away from the wrath of Sheera. Look, I love the Hank Williams Jr Monday Night song as much as anyone, and NBC apparently wanted to go as far away from this as possible, so we go with John Williams and Pink. Excuse me while I beat my head against a wall.

Also, does ESPN have ANY say in what games get put on Monday Night? Anyone with the brain the size of a walnut could have told you that Green Bay ON THE ROAD against the Eagles was not going to be the best version of football ever. Does the magic of Brett Favre really make that a legitimate primetime game?

Oh... and the funniest moment of the week has to be Isaiah K signing with the Rams, a moment foretold by Colin last week. I'm still chuckling... and he's probably an improvement on their defense anyways. Seriously, who watches tape of the K-monster and say, "Man, that guy could really upgrade our rushing defense"?

I should probably start writing about this week, even if many of the games bored the crap out of me.

Week Four Results:
Scientific Method: 8-6
Petey Prisco: 11-3
Bill Simmons: 7-7 (also giving him the benefit of the doubt on him picking the Jets over the Colts, then saying "too many points", leading me to believe he was definitely picking against the spread while thinking Indy would win)

Season Standings:
Scientific Method: 42-18
Petey Prisco: 36-24
Bill Simmons: 31-29

What in the World Were They Smoking?

For the first time this season, the Scientific Method looked positively, well, scientific, heading down to the average possibility of a coin flip. How on earth could Colin look so bad compared to Petey Prisco? For starters, by picking the 49ers ON THE ROAD against the Chiefs. Look, I don't care if Frank Gore has looked like the next coming of Christ to open the season. The 49ers were godawful on the road last year, and they didn't disappoint again while traveling to one of the five hardest road stadiums in the league. I don't think the Hawks are going to win in Kansas City, and that's even if our offense is moderately healthy. This is what happens when Colin goes 12-2 and suddenly feels like he could pick anything, even if that "anything" is stupid. Next up on the docket was the Bill Simmons pick of Green Bay to take out the Eagles. As I wrote above, no way this makes sense. You play this game 10 times and at best Green Bay loses by single digits in three of them. Not to outdone by his own lunacy, Simmons ALSO picked Tennessee to beat Dallas. Ummm... Tennessee couldn't even beat themselves in a scrimmage. Jeff Fisher looks like he's pretty much given up on the sidelines and is looking forward to being fired at the end of the year and getting a much cushier job with a GM who isn't a total moron and does things like pick up a QB a week before the season starts and then sits him after two totally explainable bad weeks. Seriously, is there a harder luck QB than Kerry Collins? Would Joe Montana have done well after losing an entire offseason than being asked to learn a new Norm Chow offense the week before the season opener? Signs point to no.

Best Picks of the Week

Kudos to Petey Prisco, the only one of the three prognosticators we track who successfully remembered that Marty Schottenheimer coaches the San Diego Chargers, and would find a way to lose a game on the road to an obviously inferior Baltimore squad. I'm not sure how Marty keeps getting a pass on all these games... it's happened during his entire coaching career. His teams will at least hover around .500, but never bet on them to win the big one. Also, how do you go into "run" mode against a defense as good as the Ravens? All you're doing is giving Baltimore three extra possessions while accomplishing nothing on your end.

The Mad Scientist was the only one who successfully picked Washington to start getting back on track against Jacksonville... the Redskins are going to start winning some games, and soon. As for the Jaguars, Byron Leftwich is making some passes this season that are quite simply, unbelievable... if he could be more consistent he could be a top three QB in this league, and if Reggie Williams could show the heart he did on his 30 yard catch and run he'd be a legitimate #1 WR.

On the last big game of the week, Bill Simmons was the only one who correctly picked his Patriots to rebound bigtime against the Bengals, who were due for their defense to be appropriately exposed. I was starting to become concerned that my large rant against KC Joyner this past summer was going to look bad, but I feel a lot better now, thank you very much.

Biggest Questions of the Week

Of course Seattle's in here, but I'll let the billion other commentors who have already chimed in on this say it for me. Suffice it to say that it was bad, but it will get better. After all, no Isaiah.

Cincinnati, though, should be legitimately concerned about their run defense. I'm not sure how they were doing it beforehand, but they will miss Odell Thurman, even if he is a pot smoking douche. I know that offense is terrific, and the defense can force turnovers, but what happens when the turnovers don't come? The Bengals just don't have an answer...

Another week, another close win for Indianapolis with another weak defensive performance of their own. Pencil them in for the AFC Championship Game and a sub-par effort in a 23-14 loss. You don't make the Jets look this good, I don't care if it's on the road and that Eric Mangini apparently sprinkles pixie dust from the magical lands of Katilalaa on his team before they play. The Jets are bad.

Also, apparently Minnesota wants to help the Bears establish a 14-2 record, because they sure played like garbage. This is what happens when you actually play a decent team now and then (although I'm not sure I'd classify Buffalo as "decent").

I know enough's been written about thsi already, but that two point conversion attempt last Sunday, with Ronnie Brown (a right handed individual) rolling to his left and attempting a halfback pass using his LEFT HAND in the 4th quarter of a game the Dolphins trailed by two might have been the worst play call I can remember. I don't even know how stoned one has to be to call that. Why even have Ronnie Brown? Isn't he supposed to be a good running back? I seem to remember that being the case... and they were playing the friggin' TEXANS, who aren't exactly a brick wall up front. Yeesh.

Oh... and Cris Collinsworth blinks way too much during that Sunday Night show. Someone was shining a flashlight in his eyes or something, because his eyes were motoring up and down, and it was freaking me out.

Most Impressive Performances of the Week

Yes, the Bears are good, and have established themselves as the team to beat in the NFC. How about the Patriots, though? I was especially impressed with Laurence Maroney, who made a few very tough runs were he simply ran over Bengals defenders. One particular stiff arm almost got me out of my recliner (then I remembered I was lazy... and hate the Patriots... but not Tash). I'm not sure how New England was able to cover all those receivers the Bengals have with their injuries, but credit has to be given to the coaching staff for a darn good game plan. That's why New England, even weakened, was always our pick to come out of the AFC East.

Are the Eagles the second best team in the NFC right now? I'm leaning towards a "yes", and it's all about how Donovan McNabb is playing right now. I am very excited to see what he can do against that Dallas defense, because with a good performance I definitely stick them above Seattle right now.

Other good performances include Santana Moss (two unbelievable touchdowns in that thrilling Washington-Jacksonville game) and the St Louis offense, which finally got on track against Detroit... of course the St Louis defense also showed up true to form, which is why the Rams are not a legitimate 3-1 team.

Week 4: The Absence of Awesomeness

2006-10-03T15:17:00.000-07:00

Last week the story was the utter domination of Seattle against the pansies from New York.

THIS week the story..... well, it is a tad different.

Tipped towards the side of ass-kicking.

Honestly? That was the most embarrassed I had been as a Seahawks fan since the playoff loss to St. Louis, a game that we decided to hand to the Rams. "Here, we don't want to win a playoff game at home. Take our fan's hearts. We don't care."

My normal good, bad, and ugly roundup doesn't quite work for this game, mostly because the entire game was as ugly as post-1990 Carrie Fisher. However, here are a few thoughts that Gavin and I have both had as we continue to process the why of what transpired Sunday night.

-- The Jerome Bettis Factor: How could I not see it? Jerome Bettis, in all of his fat, overvalued glory (what award did he just win? Best person of the world?) overlooking the first game in Seattle since he did absolutely nothing in the Super Bowl except providing the rest of the Steelers with his mental powers necessary to allow Willie Parker to run free and refs to call chop-blocking calls on a tackle, ready to put his voodoo magic on the Hawks. And voodoo he did, after once again phoning in a completely idiotic performance on "Football Night in America". By the way, four weeks into that show..... ouch. Sterling Sharpe is the least knowledgable person to be on a football highlights show since Shannon Sharpe. Chris Collingsworth just smirks and smarms through the entire hour, making me want to hit him at least seventeen times. Bob Costas actually looks to be a tad befuddled ("I'm getting paid to do this with these people?"), and Jerome Bettis usually thrusts his ring at the camera before analyzing absolutely nothing. I hate to say it, but Michael Irvin is better then the vast majority of this panel. The "couch" shtick is stupid, the one attempt at analysis every week (sponsored by Quarter Pounders) is weak and adds nothing, and then they simply have about fifteen "awards" for us at home to vote on, and then Peyton Manning or Brett Favre wins. Fantastic. You suck. Oh, and don't get me started on getting Pink to do the intro song. How did that meeting happen?

"Gentlemen, we need a rocker to really get people excited to watch some football in our intro. Suggestions?"

"We could get a rapper. They're hip and know how to get intense."

"Yes, but they're also black. That's out. Any other ideas?"

"We could get a group like The Killers, or Green Day."

"They'd probably ask for too much money. No......."

"Well, if you want someone who would do it for absolutely nothing, how about Pink? She looks exactly like a horse, is large enough to play in the NFL, and acts really intense even as her songs sound like crap!"

"Johnson, you're frigging brilliant. Make sure that she's wearing several outfits that should never be worn by women her size, that she makes sexy faces to the screen that induce vomiting, and finish it off with some lame kick to emphasize her sheer awesomeness, and we have ourselves a winner!"

"Now, who's up for a chocolate smoothie?"

Unfortunately, ESPN's intro where the city turns into a football stadium and people like Eva Longoria and Ashton Kutcher pick up a helmet rivals NBC in pure ridiculousness (along with throwing in about fifteen GMC logos throughout the proceedings).

Ah yes, the game. Right.

-- Enter Bad Holmgren. We haven't seen Bad Holmgren in a while, ever since Coach was FINALLY convinced that our offense became better when we ran the football more than we passed the football. Bad Holmgren believes that his passing scheme is so genuis, so incredibly unstoppable, that he will deem the running game irrelevant and pass about 50 times a game with predictable routes, running in utterly predictable situations like 2nd and 10, or 3rd and 15, so that he can claim later that the running game wasn't working. Our offense was INSANELY predictable on Sunday night. I was actually calling the plays before the snap, including the audible to Mack Strong on our first drive. It appeared that we missed Shaun not only for his drive and ability to score touchdowns, but also for the simple fact that Shaun FORCES Holmgren to leave part of his pass-guru ego at the door and become a better offensive mind for it.

-- As we kept on passing, passing, and passing away, it was inevitable that Matt Hasselbeck would look bad. The Bears weren't stupid. They rushed four and dropped seven back into coverage. Seven guys covering four receivers...... that can work. Ask Carolina when we destroyed them in the postseason last year. As our offensive line got worn down and the defensive line realized they didn't need to even pretend to defend against the run, Hass got more and more pressure thrust at him, so suddenly he looked skittish in the pocket even against less than stellar amounts of pressure.

-- Boy, we need Shaun in the red zone, don't we? This might be going out on a limb, but I do believe that we would have scored a TD at least one of the two times that we faced 1st and goal. Shaun doesn't let any defense stand between him and the goal line. Never has.

-- Our front four with OUR defense couldn't generate any pressure, especially our ends, including vastly overpaid Grant Wistrom, who has done basically jack squat this year while being one of our highest paid players. Grossman had PLENTY of time to survey the field at will, resulting in the above average 3rd down percentage. Coverages can't hold out forever, and Grossman found the open man.

-- Injuries DID play a factor. No Boulware meant passes over the top. No Tubbs meant no run-stuffer inside. No Babineaux meant less depth at corner. No Shaun obviously meant a lot of things. Same with no Stevens. Chris Gray wasn't healthy and probably shouldn't have been playing, and Tommy Harris made him pay. As the coaches have been saying, this is one of the few circumstances where you are glad for the early bye.

-- Give uber-props to Chicago. They proved to be the best in the NFC as of now. Grossman continues to improve, that passing game looks great, and the defense, of course, is dominant. However, this is still Week 4. A LOT can happen in the meantime.

-- Bottom line: We are 3-1 heading into the bye week. Last year we were 2-2 at this point, after having lost a heartbreak to Washington where I finally lost it and called for Mike Holmgren to be canned.The rest of our division sucks, including St. Louis, and we have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way. Be easy, my heart.

It's a jump... to conclusions mat!

2006-10-02T16:21:00.000-07:00

Sunday night was embarrassing. We played about as poorly as I can remember and I found myself justifying the game in my mind like I did for much of the '90's, "If Hassleback didn't... if Shaun... if Tatupu... if, if if"
It makes me sick. Which is why no one here has posted a recap of the game... in fact, we're avoiding the subject with me here to ramble on about the top 12 or so teams because Gavin asked me to. Lazy bastard.

Chicago (4-0) :: They're the unbeaten team with balance and above average special teams. Oh yeah, and their defense kicks serious "patootie", as a certain sister in-law of mine would say. They ripped the Hawks a new one and looked great doing it.
Indianapolis (4-0) :: Since scoring more points than the other team is how you win, the Colts win a lot of games. Pretty simple.
Cincinnati (3-1) :: With six teams at 3 and 1, a lot of fans think their team is going to the playoffs. Cinci fans are right. St. Louis fans are not.
Baltimore (4-0) :: Sure, San Diego has been the only team worth beating on their schedule so far, but beat them they did. They're allowing less than 10 points a game people. And I can't argue against four wins, even if the last two were squeakers and I think McNair is getting lucky.
San Diego (2 -1) :: Speaking of good D that's not from Chicago, the Chargers have only allowed 23 points in three games, while racking up over 80 of their own. LT better prove me right against the Steelers.
Denver (2-1) :: Lisa will get a kick out of this, but anytime Denver has a running back and isn't allowing teams to score, they tend to win. I pick them to beat Baltimore next week partly because they're at home and partly because I can't fit a 5-0 Baltimore into my preconceived notions.
Dallas (2-1) :: The blinky guy on TV said they're pretty good, so I'm gonna go with that.
Philadelphia (2-1) :: You mean TO is on a different team now?
New Orleans (3-1) :: Meh.
Seattle (3 - 1) :: I'm ranking Seattle here because after the minimal research I've done, I've concluded that we're still better than the Falcons and Rams. At least the Seahawks beat the Giants.
Falcons (3-1) :: Vick still can't pass, but they've picked up three wins in an increasingly tough NFC South. Tough? Maybe I mean overrated. I forget.
St. Louis (3-1) :: I can't put it off any longer. They scored 42 on a team we scored 9 so I can't give them too much crap. Still, they lost to the 49ers, which is why I still hear a giant sucking sound. What's that on the horizon? A downward spiral?

And I'm done. Considering the fact that I've already lost the polished, spell checked piece I wrote last night and Alana's computer is so freaking slow I'm typing faster that it can render on-screen... I'm out. Anyone need a carpenter for the next few days? Seriously.

Enter the Blog Flame War!!

2006-10-02T10:10:00.000-07:00

Perhaps this could be titled... Debate 201...

So a good blog friend of ours (who we believe to be one of the top two M's sites on the WWW) took a few things we said last week about prayer, science, Jesus, and donkeyballs, and used it to write a fairly lengthy essay on how to debate with prepubescents. Didn't actually see it until this morning.

I have to admit I am more than a little confused. Generally speaking, the purpose of debate is a back and forth discussion of ideas. I posted on Shaun's magical foot, he responded... and apparently didn't read my response to his comment.

"Science v. Religion is a fascinating study that unfortunately gains traction in bad directions when prominent Christians such as Alexander make claims before any credible analysis can be done... hurts those of us who attempt to discuss faith rationally."

Generally speaking, this would be called "counterpoint" to his first comment. In Debate 101, it apparently means "nothing", because there is no further response.

When Colin and I established this blog, we did so with the express emphasis to try not to bring our faith or political leanings in too often. In this often fractious society of ours, sports can be a uniter, and we will continue to try and be fairly agnostic as we discuss the Seahawks, M's, and Oklahoma City Sonics.

To read us is to understand that:

1. We're not funny, but we'll make the effort.
2. We are lifelong Christians who have a deep commitment to our faith
3. We are lifelong Seattle sports fans

Luckily, we are committed enough to our faith to be able to poke fun at it, such as in the example of Shaun. His claim, shuttled around the newswire all day, is EXACTLY why the science versus religion debate still rages. Making an absurd statement such as that without any evidence is, in our opinion, a terrible witness, and puts Christians in the light of uneducated yokels, unable to wait for a simple MRI.

There is a great link between science and religion, of being able to use science to better understand the divine, of admitting how our own internal biases make true objectivity a pipe dream. There are multiple terrific thinkers out there writing essays on this... and to have prominent Christians like Shaun make public claims like this sets their work back years.

Luckily, we are also reasonable fellows, who think this particular blog (who, in our opinion, could have done better with a couple of deep breaths and additional attempts at communication with us before airing his feelings) is a great guy, a deep thinker, and (again, since we're not funny) could have genuinely misinterpreted our statements. So, we apologize for any slights, both real and perceived. It was definitely not our intent to insult or offend (well, maybe a little), and we're sorry.

Blog flame wars are also stupid... and I think we're all pissed off enough right now about how the Hawks played last night without bringing other crap into the mix. Anyone who's more interested about this debate should probably just read "Personal Knowledge" by Michael Polanyi.

Colin: A small couple of additions.... I want to thank this "other blogger" for using a picture of storm-troopers to illustrate our style of debate. There were many pictures that he could have chosen, but storm-troopers were an excellent choice to ridicule a fine couple of nerds such as ourselves. Secondly, I still reserve the right to make fun of Gavin in all respects. Gavin is a turd sandwich and, as much, must be openly mocked, lest his ideas be permeated all over the internet. No matter what anyone says or writes, I should (nay, I MUST) continue in my sworn duty.

From the.... Cruel Yet Cool Files

2006-09-29T16:52:00.000-07:00

It took an injury to Shaun Alexander for the Seahawks to do what they should have done about five years ago: cut Isaiah Kacyvenski. Face it. This guy was the single worst linebacker I have ever seen, with a heartwarming story and a great work ethic.

Too bad work ethic fails to mean awesomeness in this case.

Bye, Kaz. I hope you're picked up by the Rams. I really do.

Week Four: HAWKS at Chicago

2006-09-29T13:31:00.000-07:00

Here we go... what could easily be called the biggest game of the season. It is just plain nutty that is the case, but when so many teams have been disappointing out of the gate in the NFC, it is the truth. Colin will (poorly, more than likely) go into this next week in his much-anticipated Land O' Conclusions (again, poorly, remember this), but there have been basically two teams in the NFC right now that look like they could win a playoff game. Chicago and Seattle. Everyone else has giant question marks (although Dallas gets a little bit of a break since they've only played two games).

Who has the easiest schedules as well? Chicago and Seattle. After this game, the Hawks have exactly three games on the schedule where I wouldn't be surprised if they lost, and I'm stretching this a bit. At St. Louis, At Kansas City, and At Denver (I think both San Diego and Seattle will have wrapped up playoff berths by Dec. 24, and it's at home). In other words, these are two teams who more than likely will both end up 13-3 and with first round byes. Whoever holds the tie breaker will hold the advantage in the NFC Championship Game. If Chicago goes to Qwest Field, they will be destroyed, as recent Seahawks convert Bill Simmons said (finally): "For one thing, they have the only discernable home-field advantage in the NFL right now. It's impossible to win there. The crowd won't allow it, and they're the only team that can definitively say this." Look, I try to compare crowd noise when I watch other NFL games, and it's not even close. Qwest Field is an absolute nut house right now and we want the Bears to come to us in late January. I also don't want to have to consider buying a plane ticket to Chicago, because I'll probably go.

With the importance fully established, let's move on to a really difficult preview. Straight up, I'll mention that I have absolutely no idea what to look forward to in this game. In the playoffs last year Colin and I could look at the statistics and our experience from watching the season and pretty much knew what the strategies would be. This time? No clue.

Five "Gut" Reasons for Optimism

1. The "Patrick Ewing" corollary. Seattle and Maurice Morris have gotten an entire week of "what will you be without Shaun" questions, and I'm sure the offensive line especially would like to reintroduce the league to Seahawk football. Often teams can ride this wave for one game, and I think we may see something like this (and yes, I think Mo Morris is WAY better than Nick Goings).

2. Morris plays into a probable game plan better than Shaun anyways. What are Morris' strengths? Catching the ball out of the backfield and blocking. While we will miss Shaun's running abilities (man, will we ever), Morris will give the Bears yet another possibility to account for in that four wide receiver set, because he won't drop balls like Shaun, who could use some lessons from Michael Boulware on how to catch the damn football.

3. Four wide receivers who can easily beat you. Yes, I know the Bears have a decent secondary, but they're really going to have to commit to getting to Hasselbeck in order to force us out of the formation. Any week we will have a mismatch. I don't remember Ricky Manning Jr having this amazing game against worse talent last year when we blasted Carolina. This is what's so nuts about this lineup. You can have two top tier corners, alright, you've covered Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch. Now the #3 covers Nate Burleson (mismatch) and the #4 covers Bobby friggin' Engram (big mismatch). I don't see how Engram doesn't have several big games in this scheme.

4. Teams do not beat the Hawks only rushing four. I know in the nice exchange Field Gulls had with his Chicago counterpart that's what the strategy was stated as being. I'd like to see how that works. The Giants tried it, and we sliced them up. There's only one x-factor, and I'll get into that in the pessimism section. It is true, though, our offensive line will protect against a front four, and if Hasselbeck has time he rarely misses a receiver. With the type of quick drops he utilized against the Giants as well, it can get frustrating for a pass rushed like Michael Strahan (just reread his quotes after the game) to take three steps, and the pass is already out and complete for a seven yard gain.

5. Hasselbeck is good on the road. Although many of our key performers enjoy making crucial mistakes the road, Hasselbeck (outside of the Jacksonville game to start last season) keeps himself under control and only a few quarterbacks have a better road rating the past few years. If the game is going to be on his shoulders (and I would be shocked if it wasn't) he has the track record to step up.

Five "Gut" Reasons for Pessimism

1. I noticed I went through all five reasons for optimism without mentioning our defense, so my first "Pessimism" will be a joint effort. Our defense has faced in consecutive weeks Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald and Plaxico Burress/Amani Toomer. Exactly why should we be concerned with Muhsin Muhammed and company? Because I think our secondary still can be a place of weakness, and just because it hasn't bit us yet doesn't mean it won't.

2. I'm concerned we might stack the line to stop the run and let Grossman wing it. That would be a mistake and unlike how we've been successful in the past. Let's not get cute. We play a base defense and win games. Our linebackers are fast enough to cover the gaps. Still, Chicago has a darn good offensive line and I'm concerned about our ability to shut down holes or rush the passer.

3. Chicago has a good defense. Perhaps you've heard of them?

4. The aforementioned pass rush x-factor. If there's one time a team's gotten consistent pressure on us using only the front four, it was Detroit in the form of mega-demon Shaun Rogers. Chicago has the next best thing in Tommie Harris, who blew past that Steve Hutchinson guy (I think you remember him) to force the game-clinching turnover last week. Tommie Harris vs Chris Spencer could make or break this game.

5. We've forced way too many turnovers the first few games... I think the law of probabilities is about ready to go against us (remember how many Cincinnati had last year at the beginning before remembering that their defense sucked?).

It's All About The Stats

1. When you hear all the pundits drone about how the Hawks have such a bad running game right now, remember this... the Bears have been worse. Now, this is early season stuff obviously, and teams have stacked the line, but the numbers don't lie. Chicago has a Power Success (short yardage situations) of an abysmal 33% compared to the sterling 100% from Seattle, and a Stuffed percentage of 31% (compared to a last week second half induced 29% from the Hawks). The Bears have been this bad going against Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota, so it's not like Tampa Bay or Denver. I'm surprised this hasn't been a bigger storyline. In fact, you know who's been better running the football? Arizona. We did alright against that passing attack.

2. The bad news... Chicago's only given up two sacks all season. Again, if we can't get pressure on Rex Grossman, we're in trouble, because he will make bad throws and give Ken Hamlin the ability to make interceptions (or at least try vainly to catch a ball).

3. Check out the Team Defense DVOA (and yes, this does take into account the fourth quarter)... Chicago (-22.2%), Seattle (-22.0%). Against the run it's CHI (-27.8%) and SEA (-28.8%). Against the pass it's CHI (-18.0%) and SEA (-18.1%). In other words, statistically these defenses have been IDENTICAL. That is a ridiculous assessment, especially again, considering this does take into account our nice Prevent defense in the 4th quarter last week. Again, Detroit/Green Bay/Minnesota vs Detroit/Arizona/NY Giants. Who's played better? In fact, which defense is better right now?

4. If we want to focus on Chicago's passing attack, currently Muhsin Muhammed is ranked #2 in DPAR, while Bertrand Berrian is at #24. Let's compare that to Arizona, which has Larry Fitzgerald at #12 and Anquan Boldin at #22. So on one hand, we shouldn't underrate what Chicago's done through the air so far, but on the other hand, Fitzgerald and Boldin have had two consecutive bad games and are still ranked that high, so the Hawks did a good job keeping them in check (Amani Toomer's #6 right now as well).

5. I know, it's hard, but our special teams have been and continue to be abysmal. Chicago, on the other hand, has the #1 special teams unit in the league in DVOA by a large margin. In a slug-it-out defensive battle, that really matters. We cannot allow field position to be dictated in such a way, but I've seen nothing to indicate we will do anything but continue to be pushed around.

If our defense plays as well as they have this year so far, we win this game. If Chris Spencer wins the battle with Tommie Harris, we win this game. I'm leaning with Colin in the whole "we have to lose sometime, might as well be this one" camp, but there are several legitimate reasons why we win, and I can't wait for Sunday night.

The Scientific Method: Week Four

2006-09-29T00:12:00.000-07:00

Finally. The part of the season where the proverbial wheat is separated from the chaff, so to speak. After this week, the majority of NFL teams will have played four games, a full quarter of the schedule. Actual conclusions will begin to be made, and not the "Mike Vick is back" conclusion, or the "Baltimore Ravens in the Super Bowl" conclusions, but the "Ken Hamlin is the September NFC Defensive Player of the Month" conclusion, the one that is just awesome to read since this is the same Ken Hamlin who could have very likely died from the street sign to the head he received last year. When Gavin and I proclaimed the secondary our weak spot, we were disregarding the influence of Ken Hamlin. Oops.

Speaking of oops, days such as these make me super glad to be a Seahawks fan at heart. Why? The Mariners decided to retain the services of one Michael Hargrove as their manager, in a move that was well-received by Mike Hargrove and people who survive off of Mike Hargrove. No one else. I, personally, have never seen a worse in-game manager in my many years of following major league baseball. His lineups are confusing (Willie Ballgame hitting leadoff? Betancourt batting third?), his insistence on playing veterans weird (Carl Everett over Chris Snelling, his dismissal of Choo and Jones earlier in the year), and his bullpen management, at times, lacked what some people might term intelligence (Julio Mateo being used four consecutive days, for example). An entirely craptastic decision from an organization that really could use a shot in the arm for excitement. This team has completely disappeared from the magic of the 2001 season. I'm done caring for awhile here. Sorry.

Note: Completely disregard above comment if the M's procure the services of Schmidt and Matsukawa (sp?) in the offseason. Nothing beats a bad manager like excellent starting pitching. Heck, it worked for Ozzie Guillen.....

I also wanted to rag on Gavin's completely heretical commentary on prayer and science. Gavin's style of humor is, well, not funny, and I'm sure Jesus forgives him, so maybe the Big Guy can even heal Shaun's foot NOW just to spite Gavin. And Holmgren. I will say that in the social sciences (or fake sciences, as Gavin likes to say), prayer is an essential element to make it past another lecture on the intercultural effects of nonverbal immediacy in romantic pair-bond relationships. So, yes, Gavin, there is room for Jesus at the table, and I believe that you have an apology to make to Jesus. Look Him in the face, Gavin. You know that if He wasn't Jesus, He'd be swearing at you right now. But He won't. He's frigging Jesus. You know?

Enough heresy for one day (I'm hearing lightning bolts outside, anyways). Before I get to the picks, though, I want to make one final note. Nate has begun "posting" on this blog. I use quotation marks because the quality and length of his postings do not even begin to rise to the piss-ant attempts at greatness by Gavin. Thus, it is the firm law here at Scientific Methods, Inc., that we must rag on all other posters (I use the term we to describe both myself and the five other personalities living inside of me, none of whom are John Cusack OR Amanda Peet but one of whom is a French pastry chef who hopes to make it big one day and land a show on Food Network). So, Nate, prepare to give and receive.

You also suck donkey balls.

Jesus agrees.

On to the picks!

Sunday:
Arizona at Atlanta
While some might believe that I would take this moment to laugh at all the people who thought that Michael Vick was on his way to win the MVP award.... you are right. Mike Vick will sooner win another Heisman than win the MVP. The Saints actually prepared and made him throw. Vick can't throw the football. Never has been able to to. The Cards offense has been shut down now for two straight games. I can't believe that can be possible to three, no matter HOW many times Kurt Warner will try to fumble the football. C'mon, Arizona, you're actually making me feel semi-sorry for you!
Scientific Pick: Arizona

Dallas at Tennessee
When hundreds of reporters flock to THIS game, you know that either it is a really slow week in the NFL or people really believe that all of us care about that one wide receiver (what's his name? Without ESPN Mobile to tell me, I forget). The Titans, for all of you who might have forgotten, pretty much suck this year, with Kerry Collins throwing up junk ball after junk ball. The Dallas defense should shine in this one, masking another poor performance by Drew Bledsoe and my fantasy team.
Scientific Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis at NY Jets
What is it with NFL writers? Two weeks ago Miami was the anointed team to take down the Pats in the AFC East. Last week it was Buffalo. This week the attention has shifted to the Jets. Understand this, national media. ALL THREE TEAMS SUCK! NONE OF THEM ARE GOOD, AND NONE OF THEM WILL OVERTAKE THE PATS!! Peyton Manning scores THEE rushing touchdowns in this one.
Scientific Pick: Indy

Miami at Houston
Wow. Can I pick a non-loser? I admit, I'm pretty disappointed in Houston so far this season. Not because they are 0-3, since they have had a pretty hard schedule out of the gate. But that defense has been atrocious. Just terrible. They made Mark Brunell look like the second coming of Joe Montana. That's not good. Daunte Culpepper might look like the second coming of Joe Namath or something during this game. Watch. The 2-2 Dolphins become the NEW flavor to beat the Pats.
Scientific Pick: Miami

Minnesota at Buffalo
At some point the Bills have to win one of these close games. Wait a second. They already did. OK. At some point the Vikings have to lose one of these close games. What? They already did as well? That basically takes all the fun out of prognosticating. Well, guess I'll just pick the game based on which team has far superior talent.
Scientific Pick: Minnesota

New Orleans at Carolina
All hail the Saints, who are on the road to the playoffs! After beating the Browns, the Packers, and the Falcons in the most emotional game since September of 2001! Look, their story is super sweet and super special, but that defense is still comprised of people like "The Asian Assassin Scott Fujita", a guy who failed to make any kind of impact with the Chiefs or Cowboys. Carolina, on the other hand, has found itself a much easier road to the postseason, as their main rival, the Bucs, have been destroyed by a combination of poor play, a poor sternum, and a tomahawk to the forehead.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

San Diego at Baltimore
Boy, that Steve McNair led offense sure looks awesome, right? The way they just destroyed the Browns! San Diego is on a mission to get to the postseason after barely missing the party last year. They will continue to get the job done.
Scientific Pick: San Diego

San Francisco at Kansas City
The Damon Huard show returns after a bye-induced hiatus last week. San Fran counters with Alex Smith and his small hands of awesomeness. Count me an idiot (Gavin usually does), but I can't imagine an offense led by Damon Huard is possible of beating any NFL team, even one as bad as San Francisco.
Scientific Pick: San Francisco

Detroit at St. Louis
I hate the fact that St. Louis is 2-1 and about to go 3-1 with a semi-crappy offense and a semi-crappy defense. I hate the fact even more that after St. Louis wins this game, Bill Simmons will renew this love and remind us all why he is so awesome and the rest of us so, so small. I hate the fact that Detroit has played like crap ever since we beat them.
Scientific Pick: St. Louis

Cleveland at Oakland
The one game of the week that I refuse to write anything about.
Scientific Pick: Cleveland

Jacksonville at Washington
Now here is an interesting game. Jacksonville has a weird tendency of playing to the level of its competition, especially offensively, where they have been abysmal the last few weeks. The Redskins have Clinton Portis back and healthy, and he immediately led them to a romp of the hapless Texans. Washington is an extremely tough place to play, and this loss takes nothing away from the Jags, who have shown me something these first few weeks. But, man, they really have to find more offense.
Scientific Pick: Washington

New England at Cincinnati
I would love to pick New England here in a game where they reassert their dominance to the rest of the league. Unfortunately, I don't know what that pick would be based on besides adhering to the Bill Belichick God-mode syndrome of the last few years. Tom Brady looks lost without any weapons, the defense is no longer dominant, and Maroney has a few years to go before he can truly become a featured back. Meanwhile, Cincy looks like the possible team to beat in the AFC as we begin the season.
Scientific Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle at Chicago
These are the types of games that Seattle fans have become accustomed to losing. We play well, we play hard, but we make a few critical mistakes and, even though we outplay the opponent, we lose. Maybe this team is different. Maybe they are special.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Monday:
Green Bay at Philadelphia
The crap Monday night schedule begins to rear its ugly head. Philly will destroy the Pack in a game that I will only watch until Prison Break comes on.
Scientific Pick: Philly

Special Teams and Defense

2006-09-28T11:47:00.000-07:00

With all the talk about the 42 points last week, the Bear's defense and Shawn's foot, I wanted to talk about some of the OTHER things that may make or break Sunday's game. Neither offence is at 100% so what else could change the game?
First: The Seahawks defense has been good so far, but not great. There is cause for optimism, however. Look:

5 forced fumbles (I love alliteration!) with 3 recovered by Tatupu, Hill and Fisher and 4 interceptions (Boulware and Hamlin each have two) gives us a mighty +1 turnover differential, which is 10th in the NFL.
9 sacks (Peterson and Tapp both with two) has us 9th in the NFL with Cinci.
We've committed 26 penalties on defense. That's the second most in the NFL and puts us right next to, well Chicago (27) and San Francisco (26). I can't decide if that's good or bad... but I'm leaning towards bad.
We give up a little over 15 points a game, which is in the top third of the NFL.
Teams convert on 3rd down about once every three times against us. Again, this puts us at the bottom of the top third of defenses in the NFL.

Conclusion? We're improved from last season but are not an elite unit yet. We have a fairly easy schedule after Chicago, so I'm not looking for the D to get any worse, that's for sure. We're good against the run, especially when teams try to bounce it outside. We're better than the Giants thought in the secondary. The weakness? Running it up the middle. If you can do that, our defense starts to bend. Chicago can't do this.

Second: This whole post started with me thinking about how much our special teams suck. Plackemeier has been an improvement from last year (over 46 yards a punt), but we still suck on returns. My main hope is for Jimmy and Willy to hold onto the damn ball! We only average 8 yards on punt returns for crying out loud.

We're also especially bad at kick-off coverage, giving up over 25 yards every why-the-hell-is-Kaz-in-there time. I think this has the greatest potential to change the game next Sunday. Chicago is in or near the top then NFL teams when it comes to punt and kick returns. Devin Hester has already scored once on a punt return this year. The Seahawks need to keep the Chicago defense and special teams from scoring in order to win this game. Can they? I give them a 50/50 chance.

BREAKING NEWS: PRAYER FAILS TO HEAL CRACK

2006-09-27T15:54:00.000-07:00

Shaun Alexander made some headlines this morning by proclaiming himself healthy for next Sunday night's big game against Chicago and credited prayer with miraculously healing his broken foot.

In other news, after repeated efforts to duplicate this effect, my back still hurts. What's up with that, deity?

Unfortunately, the bane of religions everywhere, that whole "science" thingy, showed up to dampen Alexander's enthusaism by pointing out in a test today a crack on his fourth metatarsal (thanks to Mike Sando). So Maurice Morris will still be our starting tailback and Alexander can pray that Morris doesn't get annihilated by the Bears strong defense.

Luckily, we can still credit "prayer" with its role in replacing the NY Giants secondary with timid squirrels.

Ultimate Explosion!! - Week Three Thoughts

2006-09-26T10:30:00.000-07:00

First off, a few thoughts on this Shaun Alexander scenario...

1. This is no time to jump off a cliff. Shaun hasn't exactly been a total stallion in the first few games here, and we're a good enough team to survive three games without him. Remember, we beat the Redskins (a darn good defense) without him.

2. He wasn't going to play a big part against that good Chicago defense anyways. Seriously, you think Brian Urlacher was going to let Shaun run wild?

3. That 4 WR spread offense is pretty sweet.

4. Maurice Morris has run as well this season as I've ever seen him. He's hitting the holes quickly, and although I shudder to think of the situation if he goes down, between he and Mack Strong we'll make do.

Overall, if this was going to be for the whole season I'd be throwing random items against the window and considering changing religions to Scientology, because there would be a lot of thetans taking over my body. Four games? Bad, not awful.

Okay, on to the week in review, and what a week again for the Scientific Method. I'm not quite sure how he's doing it this time, but Colin is insistent on not making decisions that I can then make fun of. Seriously, that's the whole point of doing this post. I'm looking forward to this coming week, where I believe Colin is going to hit the skids.

Week Three Results:
Scientific Method: 12-2 (Ridiculous)
Petey Prisco: 6-8 (Sucker)
Bill Simmons: 9-5

Overall Standings:
Scientific Method: 34-12
Petey Prisco: 25-21
Bill Simmons: 24-22

The Scientific Method lengthens the lead. How did it occur?

What In The World Were They Smoking?

Colin gets a full pass on this. The games he picked wrong? Green Bay over Detroit AT Detroit, which I'm still a little wierded out by. Where was the team that we played in Week One? Did the Seahawks really play that badly? I suppose so. The second game? Arizona losing to St Louis with the infamous Kurt Warner fumble (more on that below). Both of those picks were what I would have done, so it's difficult to take exception (basically, he also made some picks that turned out to be right that I wouldn't have made, but I tend to forget those when crafting this work of art).

The other jokers aren't so lucky. Petey took the stab and the Giants over Seattle. Here's my problem with that pick. The Giants were one huge 4th quarter comeback from being an 0-2 team going to one of the toughest places to play in the league. You just don't favor them in that game, no matter what. Both Colin and I originally picked us to lose Sunday when the schedule was released but I had no doubts about victory for most of last week (this week is an entirely different matter). At least Prisco was finally somewhat impressed... it only took two years.

Bill Simmons took Houston over Washington. Look, I don't care how bad Mark Brunell has looked to open the season. The Redskins are far too talented a team to go 0-3 (since we picked them to win the NFC East... bad CO!). Since Gary Kubiak's magic apparently is less potent than previously believed, the Texans are back on track for pick #1 this year as well. True to form, the Redskins picked up the pace and throttled the Texans.

It's hard to laugh off too many picks, there were a ton of toss-up games this week (another reason why the Scientific Method's success was impressive). I would call about 10 of the 14 games "pick-em's" where either team could legitimately win.

Best Picks Of The Week

There were some huge games this past week.

Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh AT Pittsburgh in an enormous game with serious AFC Championship connotations. Now the Steelers are already 1-2 and facing more tough games down the road, while the Bengals can enjoy their two game cushion and the knowledge that the next game against the Steelers will be at home. Colin... picked this right.

Indianapolis beat Jacksonville for current supremacy in the AFC South. When I began watching this game, it was the beginning of the second half, and the game was tied at 7-7 even though the Jaguars had utterly dominated it statistically. I turned to my friends and said, "Indy wins this. No doubt." And they did. You just don't contain Peyton Manning and that offense for 60 minutes, and you have to take advantage of your opportunites when you have them. Jacksonville needs to give Byron Leftwich the keys to the offense, because it looks inept and the reason they aren't yet Super Bowl material. Colin... picked this right.

Denver beat New England in a rematch of last year's Divisional matchup, and I have to admit it was an ugly game. More on that below, but Colin... picked this right.

Seattle annihilated the Giants. Colin... picked this right.

Carolina salvaged their season against the Bucs, who apparently lost theirs when Chris Simms went down with that spleen (prayers for his safe recovery). The Panthers still look very beatable and are a far cry from a Super Bowl team yet, although the talent is still there. Colin... picked this right.

Finally, Chicago beat the Vikings on that late fumble recovery in a statement game in the NFC North. Again, Colin picked it. Nutty.

Biggest Questions Out Of The Week

I'm going to start with New England (again), because that offense looks lost. Even the last scoring drive, where Tom Brady was only looking for his tight ends and Kevin Faulk (although Doug Gabriel did catch the eventual touchdown). It turned into a six minute "hurry up" drive, because he couldn't find a wide receiver open down the field. Now the Broncos do have a decent secondary, but that's ridiculous. It is obvious he misses Deion Branch and the sooner Pats fans actually fess up that fact the better off we'll be (also, isn't it ridiculous that one of their reasons is that Branch has never had a 1000 yard season when last year he had 998 yards? Talk about missing the forest...) At this point the Patriots are still the best team in the AFC East, since the Dolphins are BAD, but look for them to have more stumbles along the way.

The Ravens and their new "improved" offense with Steve McNair have now had three mediocre weeks to start the season. Until that "improvement" starts showing up on the scoreboard, the Ravens are only a borderline wild-card unit with no shot at going deep into the postseason.

The Giants... have issues. That secondary performance was one of the worst I've ever seen, not that I didn't appreciate it.

Kurt Warner gave his job away with a bad performace against the Rams, and the Cardinals still were in it at the end because the Rams can't score in the red zone. The Hawks will go at least 5-1 in the NFC West.

The Jaguars, as I wrote above, need to take advantage of the defense they've created by actually opening up their playbook. They have way too much offensive talent to play this bad.

The Bears finally showed some offensive woes of their own and have their defense to thank for a win... sounds a little familiar to last year.

The Steelers have yet to put it together offensively either. In fact, there are very few teams who have looked good moving the ball consistently. Maybe, just maybe, the Hawks aren't the only team who are going to improve.

Finally, the Atlanta Falcons just got exposed last night. That idiotic spread option offense is not suitable for the NFL. There's a reason the option/wishbone/gimmicky offense hasn't made the leap from college before. NFL defenders are too smart and fast to fall for a single dimension attack when given time to prepare. New Orleans just sent their defensive ends up the field to hem Michael Vick into the pocket and force him to hand off to Warrick Dunn, and then used the linebackers and safeties to hold it to a short gain. They played single coverage on the outside almost all game, and Vick was unable to make them pay since... he can't throw the football worth anything.

Most Impressive Performances of the Week

Although they didn't look great doing it, I was very impressed with what the Bengals were able to do in Pittsburgh. I thought they were going to take a step back (not a big one, but a step nonetheless) this year, and I may have been wrong on that one.

Of course New Orleans looked good, but we'll see how they play when they don't have quite the wave of emotion. Remember, they beat Carolina on opening day last year after Katrina, and then promptly sucked for the rest of the season.

Jake Delhomme wasted no time finding Steve Smith often, and Keyshawn Johnson was also a beneficiary. If Johnson and Smith are able to become a useful tandem, that Carolina offense will be scary good. There's a reason everyone was picking them...

Javon Walker singlehandedly won the game for the Broncos on the offensive side of the ball against New England Sunday night. That long touchdown run after the catch was beautiful and showed the combination of speed and power that made him such a factor in Green Bay. Broncos fans have to be salivating over his potential with Rod Smith (if Jake Plummer decides to un-suck).

This was quite the week. I don't care what else happens next week, but everyone better be on the couch (or standing up) by Sunday night!

Week Three Recap: Seahawks 42, Giants 30 (Shaun also out!)

2006-09-25T15:50:00.000-07:00

Shaun Alexander, after another underwhelming performance against the Giants, is now officially out for the next four weeks, probably missing games against the Bears, the Rams, and the Vikings, who are a combined 7-2 as of today. That hurts, though it was apparent from Week 1 that Shaun was not operating with two healthy feet. I would have preferred that this decision had been reached three weeks ago instead of today, but maybe they just wanted to see if Shaun could make it work. Obviously he couldn't. As it stands, Maurice Morris is a capable backup, Mack Strong can still tote the rock a few times, and we will lean more on the passing attack, as we have the past two weeks, to propel us down the field. Bottom Line: It hurts, but I would rather Shaun is hurt NOW then in December or January. We beat the Washington Redskins with Maurice Morris running the football. We can beat the Rams and the Vikings (not sure about the Bears). Not worth a freak-out, but raises questions about the information that team doctors were operating under, and why Shaun was playing these first three weeks.

Now...... as of the certain game that took place yesterday.....

Our victory against the Giants last year created more doubters then well-wishers in the eyes of the national media. They took note of the three missed field goals, the insane crowd noise, and the critical Seahawks mistakes, and concluded that the Giants were the better team and would probably beat the Hawks if they met again in the postseason. Personally, I didn't want to see the G-Men again, as MY conclusion wasn't too far behind. We had failed to establish dominance, and had lucked one out against a quality opponent at home. An exciting win? Yes. But not a dominant win.

Thus, I picked the Hawks to lose this game when I went through our schedule at the beginning of the year (again, I concluded the Hawks would finish 11-5). That conclusion seemed, if anything, a little stronger after two unconvincing wins by Seattle matched against the Giants' improbable comeback against the Eagles. However, I ended my picking Seattle in my Friday post based on the uber-hype being poured on Eli and the fact that our offense usually took until Week 3 to gel.

And gel it did. Welcome, Deion Branch! Welcome, Nate Burleson (1st game he actually made an appearance in)! Welcome, Chris Spencer (let us never speak of Pork Chop again)! Welcome, Rob Sims (is more athletic than Chris Gray)!

I was speechless for most of the first half. Honestly speechless. Never in a million years did I suspect the absolute butt-kicking that the Hawks were about to enact on the Giants. I expected a close, hard-fought game that would get decided in the 4th quarter. Instead, I received virtual perfection from both sides of the football. This was the first game of the season that I watched and thought to myself, "These are the defending NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks." These are the type of games that brings skeptics like Petey Prisco over to our side (seriously, he remarks on that very fact this week!). We are continuing to build the kind of respect that will last in the national media's minds for years to come. It's been a long, loooooooong process, but we are close to completion. A win next week against the Bears would cement us as the best team in the NFC, by the way, especially if we do it without the former MVP of the league.

The Good:
-- Everything. Every. Thing.

-- In our preview, both Gavin and I called our secondary the glaring weakness of our team. In three weeks they have done all in their power to disprove us, stopping Roy Williams, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress, and Jeremy Shockey. Now they have to stop Muhsin Muhammed and Bertran Berrian (sp?). That's a step down in quality, but it remains to be seen if we can continue our dominance. Still, great job by Hamlin, Boulware, Trufant, and Herndon.

-- We have four awesome wide receivers. Wowsers. Hasselbeck stated that there was a mismatch every pass play. Let's keep that up, because the Giants were powerless to stop our passing attack. I felt like I was watching the Colts for a half.

-- ZERO sacks allowed by our offensive line. Excellent, and puts Spencer and Sims in a very positive light heading into next week. It's taken a few weeks, but we are beginning to cope with the absence of Hutch. Even Walter had his best week of the new season, dominating the Giants' defensive line.

-- We had an excellent game-plan coming in both on offense and defense. Kudos to John Marshall for completely confusing Eli Manning for the majority of this game.

-- Who haven't I mentioned? Tatupu, Peterson, Strong, Hasselbeck...... they were all good. I especially enjoyed the 10 minute drive that concluded in our final touchdown, as the Giants could do NOTHING to stop us and we went up 42-3. The game was over as of that moment.

-- I can't comment on the noise, since I was in a bar where the Cardinals game was getting piped in, but Gavin says that it was hella loud. I honestly don't know what Giants GM Ernie Accorsi was thinking in calling out the fans and the Hawks for cheating before the game. How stupid is that? Complain after the game, not before it, you tard!

The Bad:
-- Shaun still couldn't run, as now we find that we are without him for at least a month. Ouch.

-- 27 points for the G-Men in the 4th quarter. Note: I don't put this in the ugly category for one simple reason. THE GAME WAS ALREADY OVER. WE WERE UP BY 39 POINTS GOING INTO THE 4TH QUARTER. IT WAS DONE. FINITO. FINISHED. COMPLETE. THE OUTCOME WAS NOT IN DOUBT. IT MADE NO DIFFERENCE WHATSOEVER. OUR MINDS WERE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE GAME. DON'T WORRY ABOUT IT.

-- The bar only had Sam Adams Light, not the real thing.

The Ugly:
-- Nothing. Nothing. This was a great, dominating performance against a quality NFC foe.

Bottom Line:
For the first week, I am ok with people looking at us as one of the top three teams to beat in the NFC. We finally played like a contender. We can complete that thought if we go on the road and beat Chicago heading into the bye week. 4-0 would be mighty fine, and the Bears looked beatable against Minnesota. This will be a playoff atmosphere, and I predict that the Hawks will be ready to play. Just don't expect to score 42 against that Bears defense.

Go Dawgs!

2006-09-23T20:36:00.000-07:00

I'm excited as all-get out for Sunday's game, but before I get swept away by the riptide of Seahawks and Jesus tomorrow morning I wanted to give my utterly meaningless congratulations to the Huskies who managed a win over UCLA. Something UW hasn't done since I was... in high school? Have to check that. Anyway, the Huskies have three wins already and it's not even Halloween yet. Not even October!

The defense is improved over the last two games (not that I watched them) and the offense, while extremely inconsistent (like Vick only not as good), can put up points... sometimes. If the defense plays this well for the rest of the season... we may win another three games. Sweet!

Still, UW football has already exceeded my expectations, so congrats.

Week Three: NY Giants at SEATTLE

2006-09-23T12:28:00.000-07:00

This game is going to be crazy.

That pretty much sums it up. Every other little item, albeit absurdly clever, that I could write about this game fails to describe it accurately. These two teams are going to play some football.

Flashback to last season...

Every year the Seattle Pacific University choir has a Choral Extravaganza at Benaroya Hall, and it happened to fall on the particular Sunday the 8-2 Hawks were going up against the Giants with home field advantage in the playoffs up for grabs. With a family member singing (love you, Jess!) I was only able to watch the first half, and tape the second. The first half was a decidedly underwhelming effort by the Hawks, and I wasn't looking forward to watching the recorded rest upon getting back to my apartment.

I successfully made it back without hearing the final score, and I turned on the game with the rest of the family. The Giants comeback was simply excruciating, as the refs gave the Giants two touchdowns (have to remember that), and as Jay Feely set up for that field goal at the end of regulation, I pressed the fast forward button... and then watched incredulously as the fans in the stadium started to celebrate. As the overtime continued and the field goals continued, the situation got more and more surreal, as Tom Coughlin refused to press the attack once he crossed the 30 yard line, and frankly, setting up Jay Feely to have to hit difficult field goals. I will never forget the shot of Jeremy Shockey hamming it up to the camera during one of those attempts, and then turning in shock as it was missed. We rewound that particular moment about fifty times over the next week.

All that to say, these teams remember, and these teams will be there to play.

Five "Gut" Reasons for Optimism

1. Julian Peterson will provide some underneath coverage we didn't have last year. Jeremy Shockey ate us alive over the middle, and we simply could not stay with him, and could not stay with many tight ends over the season. Our coverage on short routes this season so far has been unbelievable. Remember, Marcus Pollard of Detroit was their leading receiver last season, and we really shut him out. If Shockey can be contained, that offense will be hamstrung.

2. Welcome Deion Branch! He may not make a tremendous impact, but the Giants will have to account for him on the field, and that will stretch that weak secondary all the more.

3. Welcome Chris Spencer! Anyone who watched the game last week noticed the impact Spencer had on the second half of that game. Shaun may be able to cut back far more this week, and Spencer will help Walter Jones with that Osi Umenyiora fellow.

4. Shaun Alexander is due. Look... there is nothing statistical about this, but he is far too good a running back to not have a 100 yard day. This will be the day.

5. Hasselbeck can't be worse. We beat the Cardinals by a bunch with Hasselbeck really struggling. Look for him to take advantage of that weak Giants secondary (more on that later).

Five "Gut" Reasons for Pessimism

1. Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer. We may have been able to limit Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but Burress and Toomer have been utterly on fire, catching balls they have no business coming down with.

2. Tiki Barber. It might have taken into overtime, but he was the first 100 yard back our defense allowed, and it's behind the same offensive line. Small quick backs give us trouble, especially in pass routes. We have to be disciplined in our gap coverage and blitz schemes.

3. The Pass Rush. They may not have been great in the first couple of games, but Strahan and Umenyiora dominated us, especially Walter Jones. I hadn't seen him get beaten that badly in years. I'm sure Walter remembers it, but he has looked shaky the first couple of weeks and needs to step it up and give Hasselbeck time.

4. Special Teams have been awful. In a game that's going to be close, we can't have blocked field goals and 15 yard punts. At some point this needs to get a lot better, at least to mediocre.

5. The refs. Two touchdowns last year, my friends, including one the league actually copped to later.

It's All About The Stats

1. Five false starts last week. 11 last year. This crowd is going to be absolutely nuts. I know it. I'll be there.

2. Hawks are ranked 4th in DVOA against the rush after the first two weeks. Giants are 15th against the rush. Advantage: Alexander.

3. The Giants and their revamped secondary are 28th against the pass in DVOA. This HAS to be a huge deal, and right now is why I think we win this game.

This game is going to be crazy and could be the game of the week. Everyone must watch.

The Hawks will win.

The Scientific Method: Week Three

2006-09-22T11:02:00.000-07:00

Ah yes. The beginning of the bye week section of the NFL schedule. Means I can only screw up on fourteen games instead of sixteen. Glory be.

By the way, apparently the Hawks have earned the everlasting disdain of Bill Simmons to the point where he's joking about creating a voodoo dool to jinx Shaun Alexander, pretty much because Pats fans can't have it both ways:

-- The Hawks massively overpayed for Deion Branch
-- The Hawks screwed the Pats by trading for Deion Branch

When you have fans THAT conflicted about what your team did, you probably did the correct move. Sorta like Minnesota signing Hutch for beaucoup dollars (yes, I know Gavin disagrees with this, but I consider it a quality move).

Basically, I guess I'll begin to create my own voodoo doll of Tom Brady. Or maybe one of Laurence Maroney, since within the span of two games he has been given the seat at the right hand of God our Father. Yes! The running game worked against the Bills and the Jets! Mercy!

By the way, no way Daunte Culpepper marks the worst fantasy killer of all time. Here's a couple for you from the last two years:

-- Clinton Portis, two years ago: Just learning Gibbs' offense, could do nothing right
-- Jamal Lewis, last year: It hurt to watch the fantasy team in our league who was relying on that guy.
-- T.O., last year: Do I need to spell this out? Same with McNabb last year.
-- Corey Dillon, last year: People forget, this guy was getting drafted in round 1 last year.
-- Kevin Jones: Also a 1st-2nd round selection last year. He was TERRIBLE.

But, of course, it's really only about Bill, so I can't begrudge him feeling that HIS team is the one who gets screwed the WORST, and not because he was stupidly picking Chris Chambers IN THE THIRD ROUND!!! WHAT IN THE WORLD WERE YOU THINKING!!! DO YOU HAVE, LIKE, A 20 TEAM LEAGUE OR SOMETHING?? THAT IS YOUR EXPERT PICK?? CHRIS CHAMBERS??

Next week, my promise: No Bill Simmons rant. Unless he says something stupid.

By the way, Science has been rocking it so far, which means that you should flee from these picks. FLEE!

Sunday:
Carolina at Tampa Bay
And so it begins.... a string of tough games to pick. This is quite a week on the NFL schedule. Normally a game like the Giants visiting Seattle would be, by far, top dawg, but I really think that this game, Chicago/Minny, Cincy/Pitt, and even Jacksonville/Indy are more interesting games. I really do. As for this one, Steve Smith will probably be back and ready to deal out some pain. The Panthers defense played well last week. Nothing about Tampa Bay has been playing well.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Chicago at Minnesota
Rex Grossman actually threw four touchdown passes in a game. Wowsers. I'll take, "Things I Never Expected to See in my Lifetime" for $500, Alex. As for Minnesota, they got massively bailed out of the game against Carolina, needing a completely awful special teams call and a fake field goal to carry the day.Now many people are predicting them to beat Chicago? Doubtful.
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Every bone in my body screams that Pitt is the smart play here. They are coming off an embarrassing loss on Monday night, the defense will be jazzed to play against Cincy, who beat them to a tar last year in Pittsburgh, and Big Ben will be healthier and ready to go (down from his 104 degree temperature that was a crock and a half). HOWEVER, no team will be as ready to destroy the Steelers as Cincinnati. No team.
Scientific Pick: Cincinnati

Green Bay at Detroit
Ugh. Do I have to pick this game? Brett Favre has a so-so game against a bunch of stiffs in the New Orleans secondary and people are suddenly declaring him back, with the offense deemed ready to roll. Detroit, on the other hand, played very well at home against us before laying an egg last week in Chicago. You have to believe that Rod Marinelli kicked some proverbial butts, and I hate picking Mike McCarthy to win anything (does he just LOOK like the most incompetent football coach of all time?). So I won't.
Scientific Pick: Detroit

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Listen. I like Jacksonville. I really do. I have their defense on my fantasy team, and they have helped me rise to a 2-0 beginning to the season (same with Gavin, unfortunately). However, when you play Indy, you can't stop the offense, you have to contain them AND score some points. Like, more than 9. Jack Del Rio just seems too conservative to make the call that would propel them to victory, like Brad Childress did last week. I'm taking Peyton and the boys to defend their title. Big time.
Scientific Pick: Indy

NY Jets at Buffalo
Only in the AFC East could BOTH these teams receive a ton of love for playing as poorly as they have for two weeks, both losing to the Patriots along the way. JP Losman, in particular, threw for under 100 yards and was acclaimed as coming into his own. No, he's not. The whole team is not. They are 1-1, and will be 1-2 after Sunday. That's right, I'm picking....
Scientific Pick: NY Jets

Tennessee at Miami
The bandwagon in Miami is officially empty. Only brambles and spiderwebs now hang where, before, millions of people stood, holding hands and swaying together as they poured out their love on the Dolphins. Now...... silence. There's a hole in the pit of my stomach as I just think of the poor Dolphins, with their poor, poor quarterback, their even worse offensive line, and a coach who just can't get any breaks from the officials. Aaaaaaaah.
Scientific Pick: Miami

Washington at Houston
Why is Washington now dead? Did Joe Gibbs suddenly disappear? Why has everyone written this team off as well? Yes, I know they have looked bad so far, but it's the beginning of the season. They have too much talent, especially on defense, to be looking this bad.
Scientific Pick: Washington

Baltimore at Cleveland
Unfortunately, the Ravens play the Browns this week, which means that they will win and we will hear more about how they are the best team in the league, which, again is pathetic. Michael Irvin actually had them ranked #1 in his stupid power polls. #1! Over Indy, Cincy, Pitt? What? But, yes, the Browns suck.
Scientific Pick: Baltimore

NY Giants at Seattle
I had chalked this game up as a loss as I went through our schedule before the season started. Now.... I don't know. This business about the noise level will only make the noise louder, Eli has looked lost until the 4th quarter, the offensive line for the Giants was horrible last week, and their secondary was even worse! On the other hand, the Hawks haven't looked overly impressive after two weeks....
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Philadelphia at San Francisco
I'm not a big fan of holdover effects, and I don't buy it here. McNabb knows what to do after a loss, and I expect the Eagles to roll here.
Scientific Pick: Philly

St. Louis at Arizona
How's the St. Louis bandwagon, Billy? Holding strong? First class still full?
Scientific Pick: Arizona

Denver at New England
Here's another interesting game for me. Jake Plummer IS an effective quarterback in the NFL, though I wouldn't want him on my team. He is surrounded by offensive talent like Rod Smith, Mike Bell, and Javon Walker, with a defense that HAS performed moderately well after two weeks. New England, on the other hand, has struggled at times against two mediocre teams. Plus, I now hate New England.

Update: Petey King, while picking New England in this game, tells all fantasy owners to pick up Doug Gabriel because he feels that Gabriel and Brady are about to become quite an item. That just might be the most insanely stupid bit of fantasy advice I have heard this year so far. C'mon, not even going with the talented rook Chad Jackson like Simmons? Doug Gabriel?

Scientific Pick: Denver

Monday:
Atlanta at New Orleans
This pick will probably end up being wrong, but Atlanta is in for the emotional game of the century. The first game, sold out, in the Superdome since Hurricane Katrina? Good night. I would be picking the Saints against ANYONE else.
Scientific Pick: New Orleans

Crowd Noise

2006-09-20T19:05:00.000-07:00

So there's nothing better to do than stir up a little ruckus over the noisiness at Qwest as Gavin realizes the limits of sports as a means to life-fulfillment.

I was there Sunday and it was loud. Is the crowd being amplified artificial? It's possible. Do I think it's funny the subject only comes up as the Giants head back to town? (11 false starts and umpteen missed field goals) You bet.

Why is Qwest the loudest stadium in professional football? Some guesses:
- the caffeine and anger at sucking so much for so long add up to really loud desperation
- beer sales don't stop at the 7th inning
- there's no NASCAR track anywhere close up here, so all the white trash can focus exclusively on football
- Mike Hargrove isn't bungling things up
- there are only 7 other home games, most of which you probably aren't going to, unless you are, and that means you laid down some serious cash and can't afford NOT to cheer real loud
- there hasn't been anything to cheer for like this in a long time
- we know the Hawks will suck again, one day... we're just not sure when, exactly

Also, this guy is an idiot. I know it was written last year, but still... idiot. Why sell tickets if the contest is supposed to be decided by the participants alone? This isn't golf. Golf fans would cheer if Tiger tackled VJ on the fairway and Garcia stiff-armed Mickelson to the ground as he left the tee box.

Think of it--full contact golf. It's not the number of strokes that counts but who gets the ball in the hole FIRST!

I'd cheer anyway.

A Startling Realization

2006-09-20T16:11:00.000-07:00

Colin and I have determined that, outside of pro football, there is absurdly little to care about as a Seattle sports fan right now.

Husky football? Ummmm... they beat two WAC teams. Yippee. College football in general has still lost me at times with the whole "bowl games versus playoff" system, resulting in morons like Bob Stoops reacting like Pac 10 referees just gang raped his oldest daughter. That's what happens when "every game is a playoff game", like proponents of bowl games like to mutter. Yeah, it is awesome and definitely a playoff game to watch West Virginia take on Eastern Washington. Meanwhile, Texas gets clobbered by Ohio State. Go College Football! (Note: if the Huskies are ever somewhat relevant again I'll jump on the bandwagon... I'm fickle and admit it)

Mariner baseball? I'm waiting until the offseason when we can start discussing random free agent moves, and USS Mariner (subsidiary of GodCo) can pontificate about sabermetrics, WARP3, and such, and I read it all like a sucker.

Sonics basketball? Still a month away.

Husky basketball? Still a couple of months away (but man, I can't wait),

So instead we're left with the midweek letdown, where it's too early to be thinking too hard about the Giants game on Sunday, too late to still be discussing the Arizona win last week, and not much else of true substance to care about... and you wonder why normal sportswriters write "bored" every once in a while.

Let's go, sports world, excite me! Give me more than "Tiger Woods is MAD because someone took nude pictures of his wife". That's funny, but not exactly blog material, it's even funnier that columnists are using it as "now the US is going to CLEAN UP at the Ryder Cup". Ah, golf... pastime of lazy suckers (like me).

In case anyone missed it, Norm McDonald was on the Daily Show a few nights back and had some pretty funny stuff on the Crocodile Hunter. I can't find the link, but you're all intrepid internet searchers, find it and watch it.

OK, Seriously, Stop It

2006-09-19T17:16:00.000-07:00

Oklahoma is now threatening to cancel the scheduled game against UW in 2008 because of the missed call in the Oregon game.

This has officially entered ridiculous territory.

I want all those who complained about Hawks fans whining about the Super Bowl to be outraged over the Sooners' absolute meltdown over the botched call. You know what, Sooner fans? Sometimes the refs do screw up, and in a big way.

We know. Vinny Testeverde never scored against the Hawks. Same with Big Ben.

We were told to live with it.

You live with it. And get a life.