Crushed Optimists

We are twin brothers who grew up in Central Washington. This blog is devoted to the life of Seattle sports fans, as well as various other topics that we will espouse for your enjoyment. We could be called another OFFICIAL SEATTLE SEAHAWKS site, but we'll take our uneducated crack at the Mariners, Sonics, and Huskies as well. A Seattle Sports Blog? Must be the land... of crushed optimism!

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

A Ripping Hangover....

Another Seahawks post? What the....

Yes, the first CONCLUSION of the 2006 NFL season has already been reached by multiple sportswriters. (Yes, the inestimable Clark Judge is one)

The Seattle Seahawks will struggle to make it back.

Not to the Super Bowl. Oh no. That might make sense.

To the postseason.

The main reason for this? A Super Bowl hangover.

You see, the last bunch of Super Bowl losers have all missed the postseason, including the Eagles last year and the Panthers the year before that.

This is what is known as faulty logic. There is no specific cause and effect here.

Look at the specific examples the last couple of years:

Eagles (2005): T.O. wrecks the entire team, McNabb gets injured Week 1 and Philly has to play half the season with Mike McMahon at quarterback. Ouch.

Panthers (2004): Steve Smith gets injured in Week 1, foreshadowing an absolute catastrophic rash of injuries to basically every important player on the team. They STILL almost make it to the postseason in the weak NFC.

Raiders (2003): Another huge injury, this one to Rich Gannon, overshadows the fact that this team was really, really, really, really old, and guaranteed for a fall.

Rams (2002): Again, BIG INJURIES derail the team, with Warner in particular finally getting benched in favor of Marc Bulger.

Giants (2001): Absolute fluke. Kerry Collins? Give me a break. And the defense wasn't ever that strong outside of Strahan.

Titans (2000): They make the postseason the next year, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens.

Falcons (1999): Another absolute fluke. Not even worth mentioning.

So, here's what we have. Two flukes, 3 rashes of injuries, 1 prima donna AND injury, and 1 playoff team. That's not a trend. That's not even worth mentioning except perhaps in passing.

Here's what I want people to look at before anointing us as the losers of 2006. LOOK AT THE SCHEDULE!!

Here's the thing. The Seahawks are still, to the best of my knowledge, encapsulated in the NFC West. That's pretty nice. You see, the teams in the NFC West suck. There are a guaranteed 4 wins there, probably 5.

We then play the NFC North, home to such powerhouses as Detroit, Green Bay, and Minnesota. You know Chicago isn't going 11-3 again, but they'll probably still be good. Except a couple of wins here and we're up to say 7.

We also play the AFC West, a certifiably tough division, though we get the Raiders at home (W) and the Chargers at home (a probable W). Let's say 2 wins, just to be conservative. And we're at 9.

Who does that leave? The NY Giants and Tampa Bay. Again, conservative. 1 win there. And we're at 10.

That is an EASY 10 win season for the Seahawks, again barring catastrophic injuries or a black hole that swallows up Qwest Field and the 12th Man (er..... the Man Who Happened To Be 12th).

I'm not saying we should be the Super Bowl favorites out of the NFC. Nope, looks like Carolina and Dallas will be taking those honors. And that's fine, because we all know that Drew Bledsoe will remain Drew Bledsoe, albeit a year older, and that we just whupped Carolina a few weeks ago. So, whatever.

Just all these early conclusions, ALREADY, about the Seahawks, get to a man. Thank heavens for TMQ, who has a fantastic article detailing all the great predictions of the experts. Yes, there is a section on all the people who picked Arizona to win the NFC West.

Add: Clark Judge does state that no Super Bowl loser has returned to the Super Bowl in the last 12 years. In his words, "that's a trend." No, Clark. That's not a trend. That's an interval of time. You could, very easily, say something stupid like, "The NY Yankees haven't won a World Series in 5 years. That's a trend. They are, thus, unlikely to win the World Series this year." Or how about, "The NBA Finals loser has only returned twice in the past fifteen years and has lost both times. That's a trend. Thus, the Detroit Pistons (who happen to be 41-9 right now) are unlikely to make it back to the NBA Finals, and even MORE unlikely to win it."

You see what I did? I took a meaningless statistic and extrapolated wild conclusions based on it! It's fun! Try it out!

posted by colin_hesse @ 9:29 AM  2 comments

2 Comments:

At 12:32 PM, Anonymous MarinerGeek said...

The Hawks will be back, and with business to finish!

----

Colin & Gavin,

I would like to contact you, but I don't see your email addresses anywhere. Can you either post your email addresses or send me an email at webmaster@sportspot.net?

Thanks,
Geek

P.S. Please feel free to delete this post.

 
At 10:35 AM, Blogger Gavin said...

Hey, feel free to contact me at gvh@cypress.com

Gavin

 

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