Crushed Optimists

We are twin brothers who grew up in Central Washington. This blog is devoted to the life of Seattle sports fans, as well as various other topics that we will espouse for your enjoyment. We could be called another OFFICIAL SEATTLE SEAHAWKS site, but we'll take our uneducated crack at the Mariners, Sonics, and Huskies as well. A Seattle Sports Blog? Must be the land... of crushed optimism!

Friday, November 04, 2005

Scientific Method, Week 9

After this week everyone will have played 8 games and be halfway through the season. A few contenders might even stand out this week.

Virtually every eye will be focused on the Colts-Patriots game, and that is one game that I do NOT blame the media frenzy on any sort of East Coast bias. It simply is the biggest regular season NFL game so far this year. You have the 7-0 Colts, a team that has looked simply incredible with Edge running wild and a defense that is dominant. You have the 4-3 Patriots, a team that has looked anything BUT incredible. They could easily be 1-6 at this point, with luck wins against the Steelers, Falcons and Bills. However, this is where we see Bill Belichick getting into Peyton Manning's head. It is uncanny how he does this, but Peyton is making his patented sad face by midway through the second half.

Heck, I'm already starting my post, and I STILL don't know who I will pick in that game.

I'm also a tad uncomfortable that the Seattle Seahawks are starting to get mentioned as the best team in the NFC. I mean, I understand the logic, but I don't want people like Clayton to jinx us or put too much pressure on these guys too early. This game at Arizona will be huge. A win here would put us at 6-2 at the halfway mark and an early 3-0 mark against division foes with a showdown over the 4-4 Rams the following week. Before the season started I picked us to lose this game, simply because, while I thought the hype over the Cards was stupid, they did seem to play well at home last year, beating us soundly in a game that Gavin and I were at, with drunken Cards fans all around us getting into fights with each other. Now? The Cards will be without Boldin, and will have Warner back at QB, which I believe is a dumb decision. With THAT offensive line, it appears that Josh McCown gives the Cards the best chance to win. But Denny Green has never been one to remain complacent with his quarterback situation.

Oh, and back by popular demand (myself and Gavin), science is taking on Petey once again.

On to the picks!

Scientific Record: 63-53
Petey's Record: 58-56-2

Tennessee at Cleveland
Hypothesis: When you believe the teams are equal, pick against Pete Prisco
Yes, Cleveland let Houston get its first win last week, but Tennessee has looked just horrible the last couple of weeks. McNair is back, but still hurt, and Chris Brown has been struggling with injuries as well. Trent Dilfer will be fighting for his starter's job, and here's one person saying that he keeps it one more week. Romeo Crennel will have his guys ready to play.
Scientific Pick: Cleveland
Petey Pick: Tennessee

Oakland at Kansas City
Hypothesis: Stay away from a jumpy quarterback on the road
That would be Kerry Collins, who always seems to put together a few laughers on the road each season. I like the fact that Norv Turner has decided to give the ball to Lamont Jordan, but expect the Chiefs to key onto the running game. Randy Moss is questionable, and will not be at full strength even if he does play, hindering that Oakland passing game. On the other side, the Raiders defense is one step above pathetic, and the Chiefs actually showed something during the second half of their loss to the Chargers, getting Tony Gonzalez involved and getting those sweeps working.
Scientific Pick: Kansas City
Petey Pick: Oakland

Atlanta at Miami
Hypothesis: A superior pass rush can dominate an offense manned by a poor quarterback
Gus won't know what hit him. I expect him to go down multiple times by the Atlanta Falcons D-line and linebackers. Miami's lone hope is Ronnie Brown, who is running hard and should be poised to rack some big yardage against the Falcons' porous run defense. The Falcons will try to stack the line of scrimmage and dare Gus to beat them. Meanwhile, Vick and Dunn are always good to post 17-20 points a game.... somehow, and that total should be good enough to win. This will be a close one, but Atlanta is just too talented to lose this one after a bye week.
Scientific Pick: Atlanta
Petey Pick: Miami

Detroit at Minnesota
Hypothesis: Never pick Minnesota until Brad Johnson proves he's not 50 years old
I hate to go with the Pete-ster here, but Detroit, at the very least, seems to have a defense capable of creating turnovers and even points. Harrington is back at starter, which is a laugher, but it's not like Minnesota's defense has been able to stop anyone so far. Expect a huge helping of Kevin Jones, with Harrington passing no more then 15 times this ballgame. Another one to switch the channel.
Scientific Pick: Detroit
Petey Pick: Detroit

San Diego at NY Jets
Hypothesis: Sometimes the records don't show the disparity
San Diego should be 6-2 at the very least. They still have Tomlinson, and Brees has played well since that horrible game at Denver. They handled Kansas City with ease last week. Meanwhile, the Jets have looked pathetic ever since beating Tampa Bay. Curtis Martin is banged up, Vinny or Bollinger are not NFL-capable quarterbacks, and..... no. I'm sorry, Jets fans. This has been one of those seasons that make you regret being a hardcore fan, because you have some stars crossed or something. The silver lining: Next year you should be right back as a serious contender if people get healthy again.
Scientific Pick: San Diego
Petey Pick: NY Jets (which is ridiculous)

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Hypothesis: Laugh at Chris Simms. Long and Loud.
Science has a new rule of never picking San Francisco, and that was the only thing that kept science from picking against Chris Simms last week. As it was, not only did Simms suck, but the Cadillac, he of the uber-hype the first few weeks of the season, gained all of 20 yards on the ground, helping my fantasy team win. If Green Bay is the best 1-6 team I've ever seen, Tampa Bay is the worst 5-2 team I've ever seen. Good teams don't lose to the Jets and the 49ers. This would be a huge win for the Bucs, but it would be an even bigger win for the Panthers.
Scientific Pick: Carolina
Petey Pick: Tampa Bay

Houston at Jacksonville
Hypothesis: Lightning doesn't strike two weeks in a row
I forgot about this hypothesis when I picked San Francisco to beat Philly in Week 2. You see, Jacksonville is a much better team then Cleveland, even if they really disappointed me in letting St. Louis beat them last week. By the way, surprise, surprise! David Carr had time in the pocket, and he looked like a good quarterback last week. That is why Houston needs to stay clear of a Matt Leinart pick. Go with offensive line help. That's what you need to succeed in the NFL. I expect Fred Taylor to dominate this game.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville
Petey Pick: Jacksonville

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Hypothesis: If last week was the best offense the Ravens can muster, stay clear
Baltimore did give Pittsburgh a scare last week, but they still seem like a team that can't get it in the end zone even IF everything is clicking on all cylinders. Anthony Wright is still playing quarterback, and Jamal Lewis still looks horrible. Meanwhile, Cincy had a letdown game last week and still won, which actually impressed me. Carson Palmer should have a field day against a Ravens defense that has actually been vulnerable against the pass this year, with just enough from Rudi Johnson to stabilize the offense.
Scientific Pick: Cincinnati
Petey Pick: Baltimore

Chicago at New Orleans
Hypothesis: Never pick Aaron Brooks against a dominant defense
I am VERY impressed with the Bears defense. Maybe they are playing against sub-par offenses, which is true, but they seem to be everywhere. Meanwhile, Kyle Orton is playing just well enough not to lose, and Thomas Jones is one of the real surprises in the NFL this year. Jones is a little nicked up, but expect, I'm serious, Cedric Benson to shine if Jones can't play. I put the turnovers forced by Chicago at 4.
Scientific Pick: Chicago
Petey Pick: New Orleans

Seattle at Arizona
Hypothesis: Teams in quarterback flux never succeed
This is true in both college and the NFL game. Look at Tennessee. Coach Fulmer has kept that team down the past couple of years by not committing to a quarterback. Coach Green has done the exact same thing. This team should have fought for a playoff spot last year, but, inexplicably, Green gave precious starts to John Navarre. Inexcusable. Meanwhile, Engram will be back, which means we will be putting less pressure on the young guys, plus Alexander loves to play against the Cardinals ever since they trash talked him here last year. Go time for Seattle.
Scientific Pick: Seattle
Petey Pick: Arizona (because he hates us)

Side note: If Pete had been right all season so far about the Seahawks, including this game, our record would be 3-5 after Sunday

NY Giants at San Francisco
Hypothesis: Just go with the better team
This game might actually be close, but there is no way that Coach Coughlin is going to let the Giants play with anything but a large amount of intensity. Eli and Tiki should SHRED this 49ers defense, and, while I love Cody Pickett as an ex-Husky, there is no way that he is ready to get the starting job in the NFL, especially when a certain Michael Strahan is lining up against him. Any team, basically, lucks out when you see the 49ers on the ol' schedule.
Scientific Pick: NY Giants
Petey Pick: NY Giants

Pittsburgh at Green Bay
Hypothesis: There will be one big upset per week
Charlie Batch is playing quarterback for the Steelers. That's a problem. Jerome Bettis is doubtful. That's a problem. Brett Favre is coming off a terrible game where people, once again, are calling for a rookie to replace him. That's a problem. Green Bay is better then a 1-6 team. That's a problem. Pitts' defense looked porous in letting Baltimore go up and down the field with apparent ease on Monday night. That's a problem.
Scientific Pick: Green Bay
Petey Pick: Pittsburgh

Philadelphia at Washington
Hypothesis: Teams in ultra turmoil underperform
What has happened in Philly? These guys used to be, after the Pats, the class of the NFL, giving everyone else a picture of how to run a franchise. Now? There seems to be turmoil everywhere, and they are coming off a week where they just looked pathetic. Of course, so did Washington, but Washington always plays well at home, and Joe Gibbs at least has a balanced offense. Philly can't lay claim to that statement. No wonder Westbrook is steamed. By the way, it is VERY possible that Donovan McNabb doesn't play in this game.
Scientific Pick: Washington
Petey Pick: Philadelphia

Indianapolis at New England
Hypothesis: Pick the champs until they lose
Indy should win this game. They have the better offense. They have the better defense. But..... I just can't. Not until they prove it. Sorry, Colts fans.
Scientific Pick: New England
Petey Pick: Indianapolis

posted by colin_hesse @ 11:47 AM  1 comments


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