Crushed Optimists

We are twin brothers who grew up in Central Washington. This blog is devoted to the life of Seattle sports fans, as well as various other topics that we will espouse for your enjoyment. We could be called another OFFICIAL SEATTLE SEAHAWKS site, but we'll take our uneducated crack at the Mariners, Sonics, and Huskies as well. A Seattle Sports Blog? Must be the land... of crushed optimism!

Friday, November 11, 2005

The Scientific Method, Week 10

Well, Science had a coming-out party last week, working out to an 11-3 record. Science incorrectly picked the Pats, the Lions, and the Packers, but got everyone else. Of course, that leads me to the obvious scientific pick to regress to the mean any week now, so you probably want to run as far from my picks as possible this week.

Every team has now played eight games, and the good teams are beginning to separate from the bad teams. For as much as parity rules the NFL right now, it seems like parity becomes less true as each season moves along. The bad teams get worse and the good teams get better.

This is also the biggest week of the season for the Seattle Seahawks. A win here would accomplish three things:

1. A division title
2. A large step towards a playoff bye
3. A 3000 lb gorilla off our backs

John Clayton put it well in a column this week when he stated that even though the Seahawks won the division last year, the Rams seemed like the better team at the end. The Rams beat us twice in Seattle last year, once due to a 4th quarter collapse that took at least 3 years off my life, and once in the playoffs due to the fact that we never stopped them once in the 2nd half and Engram dropped a ball in the end zone. It is IMPERATIVE that we win this game. Maybe not from a playoff perspective, but from any kind of a "This team can go deep in the playoffs" perspective.

It will be tough, with Bulger, Holt, and maybe even Bruce back for the Rams, and the Hawks still operating without D-Jack. But enough of that, Gavin will preview it more tomorrow.

Scientific Record: 74-56

Kansas City at Buffalo
Hypothesis: Tentative offenses always seem to sputter in the NFL
Buffalo was one of my dark horse picks going into this season. However, they have fallen well short of expectations, and their season was encapsulated in the loss at New England. Willis McGahee can't pick up the tough yards, especially near the end zone. The rushing defense has fallen apart. And that offense is reminiscent of Mike Holmgren with Jon Kitna at quarterback. You're lucky to score 20 points with that offense. Meanwhile, you can bet that K.C. is up to the task.
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

San Francisco at Chicago

Hypothesis: Never pick a newbie quarterback against a quality defense
Cody didn't play all that badly last week against the Giants, which rocks since he's a former Husky. However, there is no way that Chicago loses this game. Their defense is playing lights-out right now, and Kyle Orton is making just enough plays to win. I agree with Bill Simmons, Orton is approaching Trent Dilfer territory from the Ravens Super Bowl year. However, if you think I believe Chicago is sniffing Detroit this postseason, you are sniffing something....
Scientific Pick: Chicago

Arizona at Detroit

Hypothesis: Pick the team in turmoil over the team in turmoil
Two teams that are in abject disarray. You have Joey Harrington, who has redefined the Peyton Manning face, showing a faintly blank, faintly constipated, faintly scared, faintly insane look that should be framed and shown at every Texas Longhorns game to convince THE GREATEST QUARTERBACK EVER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL ACCORDING TO ESPN that the position of wide receiver might suit him better in the NFL.
Scientific Pick: Arizona

Houston at Indianapolis
Hypothesis: I don't think science needs to enter the equation with this one
Sometimes you want to write a paragraph explaining your pick, and you think, "Are the three people who read this that stupid that they would pick Houston in this game? Houston has a terrible passing defense. Indy has a reasonably good passing attack. Houston has a terrible offensive line. Indy has Freeney." So, instead, I'll just whistle and go a little jiggle on the couch here. Wait. Wait. Done.
Scientific Pick: Indianapolis

New England at Miami

Hypothesis: There is one big upset every week
Every quarterback has a team they struggle against. For Manning, it was the Patriots. For Hasselbeck, it is the Cardinals. For Favre, it is the Vikings. For Tom Brady, it is the Miami Dolphins, especially on the road. I have no idea why, it just happens that way. Plus, the Miami rushing attack should open the door for Frerotte to actually find Chris Chambers, because Lord knows noone on the Patriots will actually be able to cover him. How the mighty have fallen.
Scientific Pick: Miami

Minnesota at NY Giants

Hypothesis: Never pick the Vikings this season on the road
This is a huge game for the Vikings. A win here would vault them back into the playoff race and, perhaps, get people to stop talking about The Best Boat Cruise in the History of Humankind. So... can Mike Tice take his Super Pencil out from his ear and coach his team past the hapless Giants? Can Brad Johnson handle the pass rush of one Michael Strahan? Well, think about it this way. Absolutely not.
Scientific Pick: NY Giants

Baltimore at Jacksonville

Hypothesis: You should never believe that Kyle Boller will rejuvinate an offense
Has there been a more disappointing player in the NFL this year then Jamal Lewis? You remember him, right? He had, oh, 2000 yards a few seasons ago? This season he's running like he's trapped in instant replay mode in Madden where you super-slow-mo the play to watch all the blocks happen. And why aren't any sports columnists talking about how he basically said he was quitting on his team this year? Oh yeah. T.O, a.k.a. The Prince of Darkness, or The Ripper of Souls. Right.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville

Denver at Oakland

Hypothesis: Sometimes.... there are two big upsets a week
It seems that every year at about this time Denver is revered as The Best of the Rest, and about this time Jake Plummer remembers to finally drink his Suck Juice, the defense worsens, and the Broncos don't have any home games left. Meanwhile, Oakland has been playing quite well, and their running defense has definitely picked up. Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell might find the going a little rough this week. I expect to see Lamont Jordan, and lots of him. Of course, that means I'm counting on Norv Turner. Ouch.
Scientific Pick: Oakland

NY Jets at Carolina
Hypothesis: Teams with horrific rushing defenses struggle on the road
Did the Jets actually score 26 points last week? And lose? Here's the thing. Sure, it was a big bummer that Pennington went down for the season. But the big surprise about this team has been the awful run defense. They can't stop anyone whatsoever. Carolina gets to face another terrible team. They will proceed to win by 30 and be lauded by pundits everywhere as the Super Bowl representative of the NFC. Especially Pete Prisco. Oh. Wait a second. That already happened.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Green Bay at Atlanta
Hypothesis: At some point, you have to realize that losing teams are losers
Sorry, Green Bay, but I have stuck up for you for the last time. You definitely have a chance in this game, but as long as Favre decides to commit five turnovers a game and their running game is some guy named Gato (cat in Spanish?), there is no freaking way. Meanwhile, Vick, you need to take a "Shut Up" pill. Throwing for over 200 yards for one game does not mean you are suddenly a great pocket passer. It means you threw for over 200 yards in one game. Joey Harrington can do that.
Scientific Pick: Atlanta

St. Louis at Seattle
Hypothesis: Pick the team with the most to prove
I can't write any more about this game. The bile continues to rise in my mouth. I am so, so nervous.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Washington at Tampa Bay
Hypothesis: Laugh at Chris Simms. Long and loud.
So, Simms takes over and Tampa Bay starts to suck. Wow. Couldn't see that one coming. Let's see. Washington has a great defense. Simms is still playing quarterback. Tampa Bay has a great defense. Washington has a conservative offense that should pound out a few points. Low scoring game? Go with Gibbs on this one.
Scientific Pick: Washington

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Hypothesis: Laugh at ESPN. Long and loud.
So who scheduled this game before the season started? You had possible games with the Rams and Seahawks, Redskins and Bucs, Green Bay and Atlanta, and the best ESPN could do was put the Browns on Prime Time? Michael Irvin deserves to talk about this game. I mean, *ahem* MICHAEL IRVIN DESERVES TO TALK ABOUT THIS GAME!! MICHAEL IRVIN!! MICHAEL IRVIN!!! GAAAAAAAAHHH!!!
Scientific Pick: Pittsburgh

Dallas at Philadelphia
Hypothesis: Rumors of demise were a tad premature?
Wow, tough week for Philly, huh? Most prominent figure in the whole mess is Drew Rosenhaus, who had the best press conference I have ever seen and probably will ever see in my entire life. It almost made the fact that I was puking my guts out worthwhile, because if I hadn't been sick, I wouldn't have been able to watch it live. My favorite part? When a reporter asked Drew what he had actually done for T.O., since under Drew's watch, T.O. had started a contract dispute, gotten kicked out of training camp, insulted McNabb about 35 times, and finally gotten kicked off the Eagles. Good job, Drew! Drew's response: Next question. Ooh! Ooh! I have a question, Drew!

I have a wife who sometimes wants me to do things HER way instead of mine. I want to try to intimidate her into never doing that again. You have a tactic that seems to work that I want to learn. So.... how do you get that look of pure, unadulterated evil in your eyes while also assuming that the world is out to get you? Seriously. Is it Doug, the devil of greed? Of Zeke, the devil of stupdity? Or maybe Paul-Dawg, the devil of mayonnaise? Just tell me. Leave a comment.
Scientific Pick: Philly

posted by colin_hesse @ 11:39 AM  0 comments

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