Crushed Optimists

We are twin brothers who grew up in Central Washington. This blog is devoted to the life of Seattle sports fans, as well as various other topics that we will espouse for your enjoyment. We could be called another OFFICIAL SEATTLE SEAHAWKS site, but we'll take our uneducated crack at the Mariners, Sonics, and Huskies as well. A Seattle Sports Blog? Must be the land... of crushed optimism!

Friday, September 23, 2005

The Scientific Method, Week 3

Well, science is getting its butt kicked by the NFL so far. Of course, I also listened to the small voices inside my head in picking San Francisco over Philadelphia. That was stupid. I understand that. It's time to stop picking with emotion and entirely on the basis of science and logic.

By the way, I just read The Sports Guy's Week 3 preview. Screw the picks. Did he actually call Chris Collingsworth and Skip Bayless "normally astute"? What?

That can't fail. Right?
Record so far: A robust 13-19

On to Week 3!

Sunday:
Oakland at Philadelphia
Hypothesis: Crappy coaches make their teams worse, good coaches make their teams better.
Do you remember the coach from "Happy Gillmore"? The guy who was entirely frieked out about football and the opposing team until he imagined a baby's head on the opposing coach? For some reason, I feel like that is an actual representation of Norv Turner. Randy Moss can score 2 touchdowns a game, but that Oakland defense will give up at least 4. I simply can't go against Philadelphia after last week.
Scientific Pick: Philadelphia

Cleveland at Indianapolis
Hypothesis: Exceptional quarterbacks will have at least one exceptional game within the first three weeks
Do you realize that the Colts are 2-0, and Peyton Manning has yet to have a great game? He actually had a terrible game last week, and the Colts ended up winning. Meanwhile, I refuse to believe that Trent Dilfer can throw for 300 yards 2 weeks in a row. That just seems unfathomable to me. Sure, if anyone knows Manning's weak spots, it's Romeo Crennel, and, when he has a little more talent, I would feel comfortable picking him, but Manning has to excel this week. It's basic percentages.
Scientific Pick: Indianapolis

Tampa Bay at Green Bay
Hypothesis: Never bet against Monte Kiffen coming up with a superior defense
Worst analysis going into the season was our look at Tampa Bay. We honestly just didn't see the great start of Cadillac Williams and the resurgent defense that looks as good as it did during their Super Bowl year. Meanwhile, Green Bay looks entirely lost, and I never thought I would say that about Brett Favre. No, he's not done, but he has always struggled against Tampa Bay, and Sunday shouldn't be any different
Scientific Pick: Tampa Bay

Cincinnati at Chicago
Hypothesis: In a battle of hype versus hype, always go with the hype
A little joke there, sorry. Seriously, though, anyone sore from all the bandwagon-jumping that has taken place with these two teams? Chicago still has Kyle Orton at quarterback. Kyle Orton sucked against teams like Wisconsin last year. Thomas Jones had a quick start to last season before succumbing to his natural suckage. I'm not entirely on the Cincy bandwagon, but I do feel like the matchups favor them. They can pound the ball with Rudy, and Carson Palmer looks, frankly, incredible so far.
Scientific Pick: Cincinnati

Atlanta at Buffalo
Hypothesis: Good defenses become great defenses at home
I was very disappointed with Buffalo last week, and it appears that I wasn't the only one. McGahee got chewed out, the Kelly Holcombe watch was put on high alert, and the defense now has something to prove again. Meanwhile, Atlanta claims a "moral victory" from almost coming back against Seattle, but, sorry to say, it really doesn't take that much to come back against Seattle. Most teams can do that. If Vick is hobbled, expect Buffalo's defense to control this ballgame, while McGahee should exploit an Atlanta defense exposed by Alexander last week. This game shouldn't even be close.
Scientific Pick: Buffalo

Tennessee at St. Louis
Hypothesis: Passing games excel on turf
So, now Tennessee is really good, huh? Because they beat Baltimore? Yeah? Sorry, but this is St. Louis, and Marc Bulger excels at home. Tory Holt excels at home. Isaac Bruce excels at home. And Stephen Jackson should run roughshod over this young defense. McNair might be able to keep this close against what is a pretty lame defense, but the winning number of points will be in the 30s.
Scientific Pick: St. Louis

Jacksonville at Jets
Hypothesis: In a battle of hampered offenses, go with the momentum
Who had the momentum coming out of last week? To me, it actually was the Jaguars, who, even though they lost, look like they might be the (gasp) best team in the AFC South by the end of the season. HERESY!! HERESY!! Meanwhile, Curtis Martin is hampered, Pennington is throwing a la Danny Wuerffel, and the Jets have looked FAR from a possible Super Bowl contender. I expect Jacksonville to really pressure Pennington into having a horrible day (which is bad since he's on my fantasy team), getting turnovers and allowing Leftwich to experience a short field for most of the day.
Scientific Pick: Jacksonville

New Orleans at Minnesota
Hypothesis: Never believe that teams are done in Week 2
I simply can't buy that Minnesota is done and that Culpepper is, all of a sudden, a horrible quarterback. I simply can't buy that Randy Moss is worth that much to a team. This was a team that many people were picking for the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, did you watch the Saints on Monday? The Giants didn't so much win that game. They had no choice BUT to win that game after the stinkfest put up by Aaron Brooks. The Saints are, quite simply, not a dominant team, and I should have realized that last week. If Minnesota loses THIS game, I might put the hammer down on them. Until then...
Scientific Pick: Minnesota

Carolina at Miami
Hypothesis: Take a few weeks off of betting on good ol' Gus
I have picked Gus two weeks now. That's enough. Some people are picking these Panthers, who, by the way, just beat the Patriots, to lose here. I say..... what? Hello? Dolphins have no running game, no real offense, and a defense that tires down as the game goes along because the main stars are really old. Um, no. Going with the safe pick here.
Scientific Pick: Carolina

Arizona at Seattle
Hypothesis: Go with the team that has the most to prove
You might assume that this hypothesis would point me to Arizona, right? Wrong. Seattle has had to live ALL summer with everyone writing them off and putting Arizona on a huge pedestal that they don't deserve. They had to live with Orlando Huff and Chike Okeafor calling them out and saying that Arizona was a much better team. You better believe that Seattle will be going all out in this game. If they don't, then Mike Hargrove better be updating his resume, because his motivational skills will have decreased beyond the point of nothing.
Scientific Pick: Seattle

Dallas at San Francisco
Hypothesis: Always pick one big upset a week
The Cowboys are coming off a horrific home loss to Washington, one that owner Jerry Jones called one of the worst five losses since he became owner. The 49ers are coming off a horrific loss to the Eagles where McNabb went nuts. Mike Nolan will be psyched to coach against Bill Parcells, and I see the 49ers linebackers being able to play havoc with Drew Bledsoe, who looked terrible last week. So, I'm going to do it. Why not?
Scientific Pick: San Francisco

New England at Pittsburgh
Hypothesis: Champions don't become chumps overnight
I love Pittsburgh. Big Ben is awesome. Willie Parker looks like a star. That defense looks like they will be fantastic once again. Everything is there for a massive game against the defending champs, who are coming off a big loss to the Panthers where Brady and Dillon both looked horrible. And yet.... I can't help but think that these are the weeks where Brady and Belichick step up and remind us all why they are a dynasty.
Scientific Pick: New England

Giants at San Diego
Hypothesis: See Minnesota hypothesis
San Diego has already thrown two wins away. They won't make that mistake again. Except to see LT have the ball at least 40 plays.
Scientific Pick: San Diego

Monday:
Kansas City at Denver
Hypothesis: Great teams beat inconsistent teams
I really, really like Kansas City. Their offense isn't even entirely clicking, and they have still had two convincing wins against two good teams. The defense looks improved, and Vermeil has put two good game-plans together. On the other side, that Denver team looks, frankly, bad. Plummer is inconsistent, they have no running game for the first time in twenty years, and that defense had to bail them out of that game against San Diego.
Scientific Pick: Kansas City

By the way.... Gavin sucks.

posted by colin_hesse @ 12:57 PM  0 comments

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